Types of tax risks of the organization are classified. Tax risk: types, factors, consequences, analysis and optimization

The most correct from these positions is the definition of financial risks, which is given by S. A. Filin: “Financial risks arise in connection with the movement of financial flows in conditions of uncertainty and represent the probability (threat) of adverse financial potential loss of financial resources ( Money) or a shortfall in profit (income) compared to the forecast option, or/and vice versa - the probability of obtaining additional benefits (income) as a result of the financial activity carried out by an economic entity under conditions of uncertainty” .

The most complete composition of financial risk leads, in our opinion, I. A. Blank (Fig. 1.1).

The risk of a decrease in financial	Risk of insolvency	Investment risk
owl sustainability		Investment risk
owl sustainability


Other types of risks		inflation risk

	Types of financial
	Types of financial

tax risk		Interest risk

Rice. 1.1. Types of financial risks (according to)

The advantage of this gradation lies in the allocation of tax risks as a component of financial risks. Tax risks have a monetary value and entail an increase in costs. The bulk of tax risks can be directly assessed in monetary terms. Only tax risks associated with criminal liability can be considered non-financial. At the same time, organizations as legal entities cannot be subjects of criminal relations, thus this species risk cannot be fully extended to the organization-taxpayer.

So, risk is a kind of uncertainty regarding the results of achieving the goals of certain operations by the subject, allowing the existence of a variant that is negative for the subject. In relation to tax planning, risk should be considered as a type of uncertainty regarding the results of the company achieving the goals of the tax plan.

nirovaniya. Risks, including those that must be taken into account in tax planning, must be classified according to a number of criteria in order to create the basis for the effective application of appropriate risk management methods and techniques. The system of classification features of risks makes it possible to give a comprehensive description and identify the essential characteristics of a particular risk, including tax risk. In particular, on the basis of the causes of occurrence, tax risks are a component of financial risks included in the group of commercial risks. At the same time, financial risks are risks arising from the movement of financial flows in conditions of uncertainty.

1.2. Concept and classification of tax risks

Tax risks are of significant importance in the financial management system, since tax relations mediate most financial transactions, and therefore, are an important factor determining their effectiveness. From the author's point of view, quality assessment criteria decisions taken in the area of impact on the parameters of taxation of economic entities within the framework of financial management should be not only the maximization of financial results and / or cash flow in order to strengthen the financial condition and increase the market value of the organization, but also to minimize the risks of such an impact. This point of view can also be traced in the work of D.N. Tikhonov and L.G. Lipnik, who, speaking about the choice of a model of economic behavior associated with the payment of taxes, and referring to the experience of Russian enterprises, name two factors that determine it: efficiency and risks .

Moreover, due to the impact of tax risk, the value of the financial result and cash flow during tax planning can only be calculated approximately, and in case of significant deviations, this may lead to the adoption of economically inefficient management decisions in the field of tax management. Thus, the purpose of assessing tax risks is to reduce the uncertainty of information used when influencing the parameters of taxation of an economic entity.

As shown above, it seems appropriate to consider tax risks as a kind of financial risks, since in tax planning, as a result of the application of certain tax schemes, there are risks of financial losses. At the same time, the calculation of uncertainty that arises in the course of solving tax planning problems is of particular relevance, since some of the developed tax schemes that allow optimizing the existing model

taxation, designed to minimize financial risk. The absence of a well-established terminological apparatus of tax risk in the specialized literature makes it expedient to consider different points of view on the definition of the tax risk under consideration.

I. A. Blank and T. A. Kozenkova consider only the external component of the tax risk, subdividing it into the following types:

− the risk of introducing new tax payments;

− the risk of increasing the rates of existing tax payments;

− the risk of changing the conditions and terms of payment of tax payments;

− the risk of canceling tax breaks.

T. A. Kozenkova connects tax risks with changes in the country's tax policy, the establishment of new forms of taxation, changes in rates, the introduction of new taxes and duties, the abolition of tax incentives, etc. . It seems that this approach is unreasonably narrow. The source of tax risk may be not only external, but also a number of internal factors.

S. A. Filin interprets the tax risk somewhat more broadly, taking into account such an internal source of risk as tax errors: “Tax risk is the probability (threat) of losses that an economic entity may incur due to adverse change tax legislation in the course of financial activities or as a result of tax errors made in the calculation of tax payments. However, from our point of view, limiting internal factors only to tax errors is also not correct.

V. N. Evstigneev defines tax risk through the expression of the assessment of “the possibility of occurrence in the field of tax planning of adverse consequences for a particular taxpayer”; however, it limits tax risks only to losses that are tax sanctions: “Tax risk ... is the possible additional taxes, fines, penalties and other sanctions of the tax authorities in the event that they conduct an on-site documentary audit”

IN In the definition of D.N. Tikhonov and L.G. Lipnik, this limitation is absent and the possibility of the existence of financial losses of a different kind than penalties is implied: “Tax risk is an opportunity for a taxpayer to incur financial and other losses associated with the process of paying and optimizing taxes, expressed in monetary terms.

IN At the same time, it is more adequate to refer some tax risks not to pure, but to speculative risks, since their consequences can manifest themselves not only in the form of losses, but also in the form of positive results. For example, legislative softening of the conditions for taxing economic entities entails a reduction in the tax burden, an increase

profit and cash flow. The use of tax optimization schemes is accompanied by the risk of some losses, but is directly aimed at a positive result.

From the author's point of view, tax risk should be understood as the danger for the subject of tax legal relations to incur financial (and other) losses associated with the taxation process, due to negative deviations for this subject from the states of the future assumed by him, based on the current rules of law, based on which they make decisions in the present, or the possibility of obtaining additional benefits (income) as a result of positive deviations.

At the same time, it should be noted that not only taxpayers, but also other subjects of tax legal relations are subject to tax risks. If for taxpayers an increase in the level of the tax burden or financial losses associated with violation of tax laws entail a decrease in financial resources and property potential, then, for example, for the state, the tax risk consists in reducing tax revenues as a source of budget formation.

In order to take adequate measures to manage tax risks, it is primarily of interest to identify and assess tax risks with negative consequences. In a formalized form, the definition of risk with negative consequences in tax planning can be represented as follows.

Let F be an objective function that determines the result of tax planning; Fexp is the value of the objective function expected by the company; ∆F is the area of uncertainty regarding the values of the objective function. The area of uncertainty is the set of all values that, based on available information, cannot be ruled out as possible.

Loss risk in tax planning (∆pF ) is a set of objective function values that belong to the area of uncertainty relative to the values of this function, and which are worse for the company than the expected value:

pF = ( F F F< Fож } .

The presence of target risks (∆pF ) is a consequence of the presence of factor risks (∆pХ ). Thus, the presence of risk (∆pF ) is due to the existence of an area of uncertainty regarding the value of the vector of variables X of the function F(X) :

pX = ( X X F(X) pF) .

In turn, the vector of variables X can be a function of other variables: X = X (Y), etc. Thus, we can talk about the presence of factor risks of the first, second and subsequent levels.

The identified causal relationships can be used as the basis for the classification of risks in tax planning, in which each risk corresponds to a certain level of hierarchy.

Based on the concepts of target and factor risks in tax planning and applying the logical modeling method, tax risks can be classified according to the following criteria (Fig. 1.2):

1. By entities bearing tax risks: tax risks of the state

gifts, taxpayers, tax agents, related parties. The risk of taxpayers can be detailed for the risk of legal entities and individuals.

2. According to the factors that determine financial risks (sources of

penetrations): external and internal (Fig. 1.3). For the state, external risks are due to the effect of international treaties in the field of taxation, changes in the conditions of taxation in offshore zones

And etc.; internal - by the activities of legislative and executive authorities that perform the functions of the state in the process of taxation, as well as taxpayers. For a business entity, the source of external risks is, in particular, changes by the state in terms of taxation:

− introduction of new types of taxes and fees; − change in the level of current tax rates;

− changing the procedure for determining taxable bases; − Cancellation of granted tax benefits;

− changing the terms and conditions for making tax payments;

- the use by the state of ways to reduce the ability of companies to minimize tax payments. We are talking about the doctrines of "substance over form" and "business purpose", as well as filling gaps in tax legislation. In particular, a transaction may be reclassified in accordance with its substance if it is proved that its form does not correspond to the nature of the relations actually established between the parties to the contract. Under the business purpose doctrine, a transaction that creates a tax advantage may be reclassified if it does not achieve a business purpose. The implementation of these doctrines is based on the provisions of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, which provide for the nullity of imaginary (performed without the intention to create the corresponding legal consequences) and sham (performed in order to cover up another transaction) transactions. To a sham transaction, the rules of the transaction are applied, which the parties actually meant when it was made. Thus, if the court proves the sham or pretense of transactions, the implementation of which creates tax advantages, the company will suffer direct financial losses in the form of additional taxes, as well as the application of penalties for violations of tax laws.

by entities bearing risks

by factors that determine risks (sources of occurrence)

by time of occurrence

Tax risks

state risks
		by object
		by object
tax risks		connections with others
tax risks
		types of risks
	risks of legal entities
	risks of legal entities


taxpayers
taxpayers
	risks of individuals
	risks of individuals


interdependent





		consequences


domestic

existing		in size
existing		possible






	Rice. 1.2. Classification of tax risks

risk of lost profit

risk of loss of material and other

values

insolvency risk

investment risk, etc.

tax control risks

risks of increased tax burden

risks of criminal prosecution

new character

admissible

critical

catastrophic

Factors that determine risks (sources of occurrence)

		domestic

for the state

the effect of international treaties in the field of taxation

changes in taxation conditions in offshore zones, etc.

for business entity

introduction of new types of taxes and fees

change in the level of current tax rates

change in the procedure for determining taxable

cancellation of tax breaks

change in the terms and conditions of tax payment

application by the state of ways to reduce the ability of companies to minimize taxes

for the state

activities of legislative and executive authorities that perform the functions of the state in the process of taxation

taxpayers' activities

for business entity

tax planning mistakes

negative changes in economic and financial activities

double reading of tax laws

tax errors

Rice. 1.3. Sources of tax risk

IN Among the internal factors of tax risk, the following can be distinguished:

− mistakes made during tax planning; − negative changes in economic and financial activities; − double reading of tax legislation; − human factor (tax errors).

IN number of negative changes in economic and financial activities, which are factors in the occurrence of tax risk, include the following:

− violation of contractual relations affecting the calculation and payment of taxes;

− non-fulfillment of the plan; − participation in legal proceedings;

- insolvency of the subject, the consequences of which may be losses in the form of penalties, seizure of accounts and property and bankruptcy.

Tax errors that occur in the financial activities of an organization can be divided into several groups:

1) the absence or incorrect execution of primary documents;

2) errors caused by incorrect interpretation of tax legislation, insufficient qualifications of performers and lack of control by management:

− incorrect definition of the taxable base; − incorrect differentiation of income and expenses by periods; − incorrect application of tax incentives; − incorrect determination of the tax rate;

3) untimely response to changes in the taxation system;

4) arithmetic (counting) errors;

5) untimely submission of reporting documentation to the tax authorities;

6) delay in payment of taxes due to the financial insolvency of the subject or due to the forgetfulness of the performers.

2. According to the object of connection with other types of risks : risk of lost profit

dy, the risk of loss of tangible and intangible assets, the risk of insolvency, investment, etc.

3. By type of consequences for business entities: tax risks

control, risks of increasing the tax burden, risks of criminal prosecution of a tax nature. The risks of tax control can be divided into the risks of ordinary and custom tax control. The latter are associated with control initiated law enforcement within the framework of a “political order”, refer to force majeure circumstances and cannot be assessed accurately enough. The risks of an increase in the tax burden are divided into risks of growth in taxable bases and rates due to changes in the methodology for calculating taxes, as well as risks

increase in taxable bases in connection with the expansion of the volume of activities. The risks of criminal prosecution can only be indirectly assessed in terms of the consequences associated with the impossibility of continuing to manage the subject-taxpayer by persons subject to criminal prosecution. Note that risks classified by types of consequences are considered in the work. However, the authors of the work state only the grounds for the occurrence of these risks, without touching upon the issue of their direct assessment.

4. By the magnitude of possible losses: permissible, critical and ca-

tastrophic risks. Critical losses pose a threat to the solvency of the organization, catastrophic - the existence of the organization-taxpayer.

5. By time of occurrence: future and existing risks. Existing are the risks of tax sanctions for past periods, reporting on which is submitted to the tax authorities. Future risks are associated with the activities of the organization in the current and upcoming tax periods, reporting on which will be submitted to the tax authorities in the future.

So, tax risk should be understood as the danger for the subject to incur financial losses as a result of tax legal relations due to negative deviations from the expected states of the future, on the basis of which he makes decisions in the present, or the possibility of obtaining additional benefits (income) as a result of positive deviations. From a mathematical point of view, the risk of losses in tax planning (∆pF ) is a set of objective function values that belong to the uncertainty area with respect to the values of this function, and which are worse for the company than the expected value. The presence of target risks (∆pF ) is a consequence of the presence of factor risks (∆pХ ). Thus, the presence of risk (∆pF ) is due to the existence of an area of uncertainty regarding the value of the vector of variables X of the function F(X) . In turn, the vector of variables X can be a function of other variables: X \u003d X (Y), etc. Thus, you can go-

talk about the presence of factor risks of the first, second and subsequent levels.

Risk management is based on an assessment of their significance, thus, at the next stage of the study, it seems appropriate to explore methodological approaches to risk assessment, as well as to adapt them for risk assessment in tax planning.

2. PRINCIPLES, DETECTION METHODS AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING TAX RISKS

2.1. Principles for identifying and assessing tax risks

One of the main rules of financial and economic activity says: “Do not avoid risk, but anticipate it, trying to reduce it to the lowest possible level”, and for this it is necessary to properly manage risks, including tax ones. To do this, it is necessary to determine the key principles that should guide the implementation of activities aimed at identifying, assessing and reducing tax risks. These include the following.

1. The principle of cost adequacy.The cost of the implemented risk reduction scheme should not exceed the amount of possible losses resulting from tax risks.

The acceptable ratio of the costs of the created scheme and its maintenance to the amount of savings in tax costs, expressed as a risk, has an individual threshold, which may depend both on the degree of risk associated with this scheme and on psychological factors. In practice, this threshold is 50-90% of the size of the reduced risks.

2. The principle of legal compliance.Tax optimization scheme

govt risks must be undeniably legitimate in relation to both domestic and international law.

This principle is sometimes referred to as the "least resistance" tactic. Its essence lies in the inadmissibility of building schemes to reduce tax risks based on conflicts or "gaps" in regulations. In cases where certain provisions of the legislation are controversial and can be interpreted both in favor of the taxpayer and in favor of the state, there is either the likelihood of future litigation, or the need to refine the scheme, or incur costs associated with informal payments to controllers, and etc.

3. The principle of confidentiality. Access to information about actual

purpose and consequences of ongoing transactions should be as limited as possible.

In practice, this means that, firstly, individual performers and structural units participating in the overall risk optimization chain should not imagine the whole picture, but can only be guided by certain local instructions. Secondly, officials and owners should avoid giving orders and storing general plans using means of personal identification (handwriting, signatures, seals, etc.).

Compliance with the principle of confidentiality "conceals" the possibility of losing full control over all the links involved in the scheme. One of the features of most structures to reduce tax

Evaluation of the effectiveness of tax management cannot be complete if the tax risks of an economic entity and their impact on the effectiveness of decisions made in the field of its tax strategy are not taken into account. It should be noted that at present a certain classification of tax risks has already been developed, and hence the methods for their assessment.

Any entrepreneurial activity is fraught with all sorts of potential risks, which is confirmed by the definition of the concept of "entrepreneurial activity" given in paragraph 1 of Art. 2 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation: "entrepreneurial activity is an independent activity carried out at one's own risk, aimed at systematically obtaining profit from the use of property, the sale of goods, the performance of work or the provision of services by persons registered in this capacity in the manner prescribed by law."

Recall that in the economic literature the concept of "risk" is defined as the danger of unforeseen losses of expected profit, income or property, cash, other resources due to an accidental change in conditions economic activity, adverse circumstances. At the same time, risks are divided into entrepreneurial, banking, financial, credit, currency, etc.

Risk is an objective phenomenon, the nature of which is due to the ambiguity of future events. Risks can be both positive and negative. In the case when it comes to the occurrence of tax errors, penalties and the like, the risk is certainly negative. If we are talking about reducing the tax burden, then the risk of an economic entity is positive, and to characterize it, we would rather use the terms "opportunities", "reserves".

In accordance with Art. 8 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, a tax is understood as a mandatory, individually gratuitous payment levied from organizations and individuals in the form of alienation of funds belonging to them on the basis of ownership, economic management or operational management of funds in order to financially support the activities of the state and (or) municipalities.

When these two concepts are combined, a new concept of "tax risk" appears, which means the risk of an unforeseen alienation of the taxpayer's funds due to actions (inaction) government agencies and/or local authorities.

Formulating the concept of "tax risk", it is necessary to imply its negative nature. Moreover, the negative nature of the tax risk has certain forms of manifestation not only for taxpayers, but also for all subjects of tax legal relations recognized as such in accordance with Art. 9 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation.

It is necessary to distinguish between the concept of tax risk for taxpayers, tax agents and other subjects of tax legal relations representing the interests of the state. And for each of them it will have various forms manifestations.

In view of the foregoing, the content of the concept of "tax risk" can be formulated as follows. Tax risk is understood as the danger for the subject of tax legal relations to incur financial and other losses associated with the taxation process due to negative deviations for this subject from the states of the future assumed by him, based on the current rules of law, on the basis of which he makes decisions in the present.

This definition implies the existence of a tax risk not only for taxpayers, but also for other participants in tax legal relations. For example, for the state, represented by state executive authorities (Article 9 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation), the tax risk consists in reducing the receipt of taxes, which are the main source of formation of the revenue side of the budget. For taxpayers, the growth of tax costs, which are a kind of their entrepreneurial costs, entails a decrease in property potential and, consequently, a decrease in the ability to solve the problems facing it in the future.

Tax risks, which can be assessed in monetary terms, should be classified as financial risks, since money is the material basis of financial relations. In addition, tax relations are part of financial relations.

Only tax risks associated with criminal liability can be considered non-financial. Criminal liability cannot legally be valued in monetary terms, while other types of liability may have a monetary value.

The main characteristics of tax risk are that it:

associated with the uncertainty of economic and legal information;
is an integral part of financial risk;
applies to participants in tax legal relations (Article 9 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation): taxpayers, tax agents and other entities representing the interests of the state;
is negative for all participants in tax legal relations (unlike other types of risks); manifests itself for each participant of tax legal relations in different ways.

Types of tax risks can be classified according to various criteria (Fig. 6.1).

1. By entities bearing tax risks: tax risks of the state, taxpayers, tax agents, related parties. In the future, it is possible to detail the risk of taxpayers - for legal entities and individuals, and the state - for various legislative and executive authorities involved in the taxation process.
2. Based on factors determining tax risks: external and internal (or systematic and non-systematic). Both groups of risks may exist for a taxpaying organization: external ones may arise due to changes in taxation conditions, internal ones - due to inefficient tax policy of the economic entity itself.

For the state, tax risks can also be divided into external and internal.

External risks will be determined by the operation of international treaties in the field of taxation, the activities of offshore zones and the conditions they offer, etc.

Rice. 6.1.

Internal- the activities of legislative and executive authorities that perform the functions of the state in the process of taxation, as well as taxpayers (Fig. 6.2).

Systematic risk is due to the action of diverse factors common to all economic entities.

Unsystematic risk is due to the action of factors that are completely dependent on the activities of the economic entity itself. With regard to tax risks, such a division is very conditional, since there is often an ambiguity in the interpretation of the norm of tax law, due to shortcomings in the text of the legislation, as well as its deliberate distorted interpretation, which is quite difficult to identify.

3. According to the object of connection with other types of risks: the risk of lost profits, the risk of loss of tangible and intangible assets, the risk of insolvency, investment risk, etc. such objects, closely interconnected with other risk objects.
4. By kind of consequences: risks of tax control, risks of increased tax burden, risks of criminal prosecution of a tax nature. The risks of tax control, in turn, can be divided into the risks of ordinary tax control and the risks of custom tax control.

Tax control risks include the risks of control by territorial tax authorities in the course of their normal activities. The risks of increasing the tax burden can be initiated by law enforcement agencies.

The risks of increasing the tax burden could include the growth of tax bases, both due to changes in the methodology for calculating them, and in connection with their dynamics associated with the expansion of economic activity.

The risks of criminal prosecution are due to the fact that for the heads of taxpaying organizations that violate tax laws, there is a possibility of initiating a criminal case and being held criminally liable.

However, this type of risk cannot be fully extended directly to the taxpaying organization.

Rice. 6.2.

5. By the magnitude of possible losses: acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, an example of a critical tax risk for an economic entity is the presentation of penalties in conjunction with the principal amount of tax, posing a threat to the solvency of the taxpaying organization.

When assessing risk, two of its components are analyzed: the probability of occurrence and the nature of the damage. The likelihood of a risk occurring can be determined by an objective or subjective method. An objective method for determining probability is based on calculating the frequency with which a risk event occurs. The subjective method of determining the probability is based on the use of various assumptions: judgments of the appraiser, his personal experience, expert assessment, etc. When the probability is determined subjectively, then different subjects of analysis can set its different value for the same event. Determining the nature of the damage, even in the case of a subjective assessment, is based on assumptions in terms of value.

As subjective methods for analyzing the level of risks, it is possible to use such qualitative methods as the analogy method, Due Diligence, the decision tree method, Monte Carlo (Fig. 6.3).

Rice. 6.3.

The analogy method consists in comparing the type, size and causes of the occurrence or change of a particular analyzed risk with a similar situation.

The Due Diligence method (due attention) is based on the collection and analysis of information about changes in the external environment.

The method of constructing a decision tree involves the allocation of a foreseeable number of considered options for the situation and consists in determining the probability of their implementation and determining the quantitative and quality parameters risk, on the basis of which key events are predicted, which serve as the basis for choosing an acceptable risk development option.

The Monte Carlo method is a method of formalized description of uncertainty, used in the most difficult situations for forecasting and based on simulation.

These methods are used in the absence of the necessary statistical information to determine the likelihood of an adverse tax event (fines and penalties). Methods for quantitative risk assessment are given in the works of many modern scientists devoted to financial management, financial analysis, financial mathematics and risk management itself. Almost all methods are based on dependencies determined in probability theory.

Most often, in the works of domestic scientists, to assess various types of financial risks, indicators such as mathematical expectation, the standard deviation of the actual value of a random variable from the most expected value, variance, and coefficient of variation are used. These indicators are recommended for assessing financial risks and many foreign scientists. Taking into account the peculiarities of tax risks, we recommend using these indicators in the process of their quantitative assessment, especially in cases where the impact affects not one tax, but their combination. Moreover, the likelihood of penalties may arise in this case not only for one, but also for several taxes, the tax bases of which are for the organization under study in a certain dependence.

Somewhat less common are descriptions of such methods as calculating and evaluating the range of variation, the level of the beta coefficient, the Chebyshev criterion; using a model of linking systematic risk and return; covariances and correlations. However, we will not recommend them for assessing tax risks, since current information on tax risks does not contain sufficient information to calculate the values of such criteria: either there is no comparison base, or the content of the criterion itself is focused specifically on assessing the risks associated with securities.

To evaluate options for tax decisions in terms of their risk component analytical activities should be organized in the following steps.

The first stage is the determination of the conditions for comparison: the goals of the tax decision and the tasks facing its assessment; time interval (moment) of the assessment; requirements for the used tax and non-tax information and the possibility of their implementation.

The second stage is the formation of an indicator - a comparison criterion; it must be carried out, guided by the development strategy of the economic entity.

The third stage is the calculation of the criterion values for all compared options, their evaluation and analytical interpretation in order to make the most reasonable decision.

To analyze tax risks, it is advisable to use the following probabilistic indicators of changes in taxation parameters.

Average return on changes in taxation parameters(Xav) - the value of the average savings from a legitimate change in taxation parameters by the taxpayer, calculated as an indicator of the mathematical expectation:

Where i from 1 to P- the number of taxes, the value of which changes due to changes in the parameters of taxation; L i is the probability of a favorable outcome (no penalties) for the i-th tax; N i - sum i-th tax before optimization; O i is the amount of the i-th tax after changing the taxation parameters.

Changing the amount of a specific tax as a result of a change in taxation parameters shows how much the accruals for i-th tax ( X i) due to changes in the totality of taxation parameters:

Risk of changes in taxation parameters(Ox) - an indicator of the absolute variability of tax risk, calculated as the standard deviation of the actual decrease in the total amount of tax charges ( X i) from their most expected value ( X cf) average profitability of changes in taxation parameters:

where Рi is the probability of an unfavorable outcome (application of penalties for the i-th tax): Рi = 1 – L i

The ratio of risk and profitability of changes in taxation parameters (V x) expresses the indicator of the relative variability of tax risk, calculated as a coefficient of variation:

The choice of one of the listed criteria or their combination depends on the chosen strategy for managing tax risks, this also determines their optimal value (Table 6.2).

The presented table shows that the goals of a legitimate change in taxation parameters correspond to a conservative or mixed strategy for managing tax risks. Therefore, tax managers are not recommended to use changes in taxation parameters as an estimated indicator of average profitability, ignoring the actual characteristics of tax risk.

Table 6.2. The use of probabilistic indicators for assessing the risk of changes in taxation parameters when choosing a tax risk management strategy

Tax risk management strategy	The position from which the options are compared	Probabilistic indicator of tax risk assessment	The value of the indicator according to the optimal variant
Aggressive	Maximizing Benefit Without Considering Risk	Average return on changes in taxation parameters	Maximum
conservative	Minimizing Risk Without Considering Benefit	Risk of changes in taxation parameters	Minimum
mixed	Optimization of risk-benefit ratio (savings)	The ratio of risk and profitability of the impact on the parameters of taxation	Minimum

Example

Let us illustrate the application of indicators for assessing tax risks in order to make a decision on choosing the most appropriate option for influencing taxation parameters. We will determine the most profitable and safest option for tax optimization based on the following initial data: the amount of tax before optimization was 16,000 rubles; according to optimization option A, this amount can be reduced to 15,000 rubles; option B - up to 14,000 rubles. The probability of applying penalties by the tax authorities is estimated by an expert for the option A 10%, optional IN - in 20%.

Solution:

Based on the calculations, it is obvious that option B is the most preferable from the point of view of profitability, and option A is the most preferable from the point of view of risk.

In order to make a final decision on the advisability of using one of the two considered options for influencing taxation parameters, it is necessary to calculate the coefficient of variation and compare its value for the options under consideration:

A) V = 31.6: 900 = 0.035 - for option A;
b) V = 178.9: 1600 = 0.11 - for option B.

The values of the obtained coefficients of variation indicate that the ratio of risk and return is greater for the option IN. This indicates that there is a greater risk per unit of savings obtained as a result of optimization in case B, therefore, this option is less expedient and the choice of option A will be the most rational.

The general scheme for assessing tax risks in tax management is shown in fig. 6.4.

Rice. 6.4.

The indicators considered in the example can be used in cases where the impact affects not one tax, but their combination. Moreover, the likelihood of penalties may arise in this case not only for one, but also for several taxes, the tax bases of which are for the organization under study in a certain dependence.

It should be noted that the tax risk management process aimed at achieving its acceptable value should be based on the analysis of risk factors and assessment certain types tax risks, on the basis of which it is advisable to make decisions on the need to develop measures to optimize their level.

As performance indicators (target functions) for evaluating tax decisions in the form of, for example, tax planning, it is advisable to use not only the traditional indicator of the amount of taxes assessed, but also the following criteria: net profit, relative level of tax burden, discounted cash flow (Table 6.3) .

Table 6.3. Objective functions for assessing tax risk in tax planning

target function	Objective function model
Amount of accrued taxes	where H is the total amount of accrued tax payments; Нi - i-th tax (fee)
	where P - profit; D - income; P - expenses incurred (including taxes)
where UNN is the level of tax burden; H - taxes accrued for the reporting period, including indirect taxes, but excluding personal income tax; D - gross income
Discounted cash flow from tax payments	where DCF is the discounted cash flow (present value of future cash flows) from tax payments; NP - tax payments payable in i-th period; r- discount coefficient; P– number of annual periods of tax payments; T- the number of intra-annual sub-periods of payments (with monthly planning T=12)

An important criterion for the quality of a tax scheme is the number of studied regulations and other documents related to the analyzed scheme. An essential part of such documents is the clarifications of the tax authorities.

Since the operation of tax schemes is carried out through the use of various ways to reduce taxes, it seems appropriate to consider them (Fig. 6.5).

IN general view the structure of the risk management subsystem within the framework of the tax planning process in the organization is shown in fig. 6.6.

Rice. 6.5.

Rice. 6.6.

An analysis of modern methods for assessing financial risks, which, as already mentioned, include tax risks, made it possible to identify the following methods that can be adapted to assess tax risk in tax planning: the method of expert assessments, the rating method and the analogy method related to qualitative methods estimates, as well as methods of simulation, sensitivity analysis, building a decision tree and determining the break-even point, taking into account the tax factor, related to quantitative methods (Fig. 6.7).

Let us consider specific algorithms for applying such methods as expert and rating methods, as well as sensitivity analysis, to assess tax risks. In addition, we will briefly consider the directions for using economic and statistical methods in assessing tax risks.

In particular, it is expedient to use more widely the method of rating ranking of tax risks based on subjective probability, determined by the method of expert assessments, which makes it possible to identify the most significant risks.

Rice. 6.7.

for the taxpayer in order to develop preventive measures to optimize their level. The technique can be implemented using two classification features: sources of occurrence and types of consequences. In order to check the data obtained for the objectivity of the assessments, as well as to increase the validity of the rating assessment, it is recommended to use the method of paired priorities. Then, the final ranking of the totality of assessed types of tax risks is to be carried out on the basis of a comprehensive assessment, which is represented by rating points defined as the product of the coefficient of significance (weight) of the risk by its probability. The results of ranking risks by types of consequences using the example of Avangard LLC are presented in Table. 6.4.

The results of risk ranking by sources of occurrence are shown in Table. 6.5.

It is expedient to use the economic-statistical method when assessing the risks of tax control based on the concept of objective probability, which provides an average quantitative risk assessment for the totality of taxpayers. The assessment of the risks of additional taxes, fines and penalties, as well as the seizure of property is formed on the basis of the mathematical expectation determined by

Table 6.4. Ranking of tax risks classified by types of consequences

Table 6.5. Ranking of tax risks classified by sources of occurrence

Risks	Average probability according to expert assessment, %		Significance coefficient according to the method of paired priorities
Risks	initial data	After eliminating the spread of estimates

Risk of tax errors
Risk of Double Reading of Tax Laws
The risk of the state using ways to reduce the ability of companies to minimize taxes
Risk of negative changes in economic and financial activities
Risk of errors in tax planning
Risk of changing the procedure for determining taxable bases
Cancellation Risk tax
Risk of changes in the level of rates of existing taxes
Risk of changes in terms and conditions of tax payment
The risk of introducing new types of taxes and fees

the product of the probability of a risk event by the average value of losses for registered risk events.

It is advisable to assess the risks of declaring a taxpayer bankrupt and bringing officials of an organization to administrative and criminal liability based on the use of a probability criterion due to the lack of statistical information on the amount of financial losses associated with these risks. In this case, the probability of these risks is determined by calculation as the ratio of the number of events with an unsuccessful outcome to the total number of events. A summary of the results of assessing the risk of tax control by its types can be seen in Table. 6.6. In addition, it is reasonable to use the economic-statistical method and sensitivity analysis to assess the tax risks of an increase in the tax burden.

Table 6.6. Assessment of the risk of tax control according to OOO "Avangard"

Type of tax control risk	risk probability	Average loss, thousand rubles	The amount of risk, thousand rubles

The risk of additional tax assessment based on the results of a desk audit
The risk of accruing penalties based on the results of a desk audit
The risk of penalties accruing based on the results of a desk audit
The risk of sending a decision to collect a tax (fee), as well as a penalty fee at the expense of the property of a taxpayer-organization (tax agent-organization) in accordance with Art. 47 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation to the bailiff service
The risk of issuing a decision to seize the property of a taxpayer-organization or a tax agent-organization in accordance with Art. 77 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation (carrying out an arrest by an inspection)
The risk of sending a resolution on the collection of debts under penalties to the arbitration court
The risk of filing an application for declaring a taxpayer bankrupt to an arbitration court
The risk of administrative liability
Risk of criminal liability

Risk management or compensation of tax risks implies the possibility of purposefully reducing the likelihood of risks and minimizing damage if they occur. Tax risk can be affected in several forms: reduction, retention, transfer.

It is expedient to make a decision on the choice of one or another method of risk management after carrying out analytical work to evaluate the effectiveness of the methods used. As a result of the activities carried out, it is possible:

risk reduction, which consists in reducing the likelihood of its occurrence up to practical elimination or in reducing possible damage;
risk retention - usually risk retention is chosen as a solution when the cost of measures to reduce (prevent) the risk is clearly greater than the amount of damage in the event of its implementation.

In other words, the ratio of the costs of paying taxes, the costs of minimizing and the risks of the taxpayer can be represented as a formula

Cnp + Nopt + R< Ноб,

where Cnp is the price of tax minimization measures; Nopt - optimized tax payments; Р – risks of tax minimization; Nob - tax payments in the usual mode.

Thus, if in aggregate the costs of tax minimization, optimized tax payments and the risk assessment of tax planning in monetary terms are significantly less than the value of taxes before optimization, then tax planning is an economically profitable business for the taxpayer (Fig. 6.8).

The next form of risk management is its transfer, i.e. responsibility and possible losses pass to third parties. The most common way to transfer tax risk is to insure it.

Sometimes the term "tax risk hedging" appears in articles on tax topics. Hedging (insurance) is usually understood as the implementation of additional transactions that allow you to cover the adverse effects of transactions in unstable and volatile markets.

Rice. 6.8.

Hedging tax risks should mean that an increase in the tax burden on some transactions should be offset by a decrease in the tax burden on other transactions. Perhaps a more accurate term, close in meaning to that which is invested in the term "hedging of tax risks", is the term "diversification of tax risks". Diversification of tax risks involves the simultaneous use of many taxpayers, types of transactions and tax schemes, which allows, in the event of tax problems with one element of the business organization, to minimize overall tax losses.

Separately, it is worth dwelling on the assessment of options for tax decisions based on a comparison of the totality of their characteristics in value terms, which implies the use of certain types, options and indicators of comparison, methodically interconnected with each other (Fig. 6.9).

If you plan to compare options for tax decisions on the basis of cost indicators, then a criterion that meets the following characteristics of comparison will be useful:

by type - involves comparing the basic option (in the usual mode) with the proposed one (one option for changing taxation parameters);
type - is a tool for comparing a single-factor option with a multi-factor one, where different situations and parameters are used (tax and other costs, profitability, risk, etc.);
comparison method is an absolute comparison (difference of indicators) of the values of indicators of the next economic

Rice. 6.9.

The listed characteristics correspond to the previously considered expression of the comparison criterion proposed by A. N. Medvedev.

Let's evaluate the feasibility of tax optimization actions using the criterion of A. N. Medvedev, using the following data:

the amount of income accepted for the purpose of calculating corporate income tax, before optimization - 107 million rubles, after it - 103 million rubles;
the amount of costs - before optimization -
91 million rubles, after it was carried out in a legal way -
92 million rubles;
the cost of tax optimization measures - 120 thousand rubles;
the estimated risk value is 0.6 million rubles.

Let's make the following calculations.

1. Calculate the amount of taxable profit:
- a) 107 - 91 \u003d 16 million rubles. – before optimization;
- b) 103 - 92 = 11 million rubles. - subject to optimization.
2. Determine the amount of corporate income tax:
- a) 16 × 0.2 = 3.2 million rubles. – before optimization;
- b) 11 × 0.2 = 2.2 million rubles. - subject to optimization.
3. Let's calculate the criterion for the optimization operation and evaluate its performance for this case: 3.2 > 2.2 + 0.12 + 0.6, i.e. 3.36 > 2.92.

Thus, the statement is true, therefore, the criterion is satisfied.

Based on the presented initial data, it can be concluded that it is advisable to carry out the optimization option under consideration, since the inequality inherent in the criterion is satisfied, i.e. the amount of tax costs as a result of the optimization operation will be less than before it was carried out.

At the same time, the considered criterion of A. N. Medvedev has certain limitations on its use in assessing tax risks. First, it cannot be used to compare two or more options for influencing taxation parameters. Secondly, when quantifying the risks of tax optimization, the mechanism for calculating the estimated risk value, taking into account the probability of its occurrence and the scale of possible adverse consequences, is not stipulated in any way. To overcome the first and partly the second shortcoming, the method of combining the indicators traditionally used in assessing financial risks with the criterion of A. N. Medvedev can be used when assessing tax risks.

However, a complete overcoming of the methodological problem of assessing tax risks is possible only when there is statistics on the types of tax errors and offenses and the sanctions applied on them. Tax risk, like any risk, must have a mathematically expressed probability of loss, which must be based on statistical data. In case of their absence - on expert assessments of such a probability.

Errors are one of the main factors initiating tax risks. The probability of errors depends on a number of reasons: insufficient qualifications of accounting workers, their shortage in the organization, the complexity and volume of business transactions reflected by them in the accounting registers, the scale of operations. The large scale of business transactions entails an increase in tax risks when the size of an incorrectly recorded transaction has more adverse consequences for the taxpayer organization than a similar transaction of a smaller volume.

In order to quantify the magnitude of the tax risk, it is necessary to know all the possible consequences of any individual action and the likelihood of the consequences themselves. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result. Due to the lack of sufficient statistical information, at present, only expert assessments based on personal experience expert and analysis of arbitration practice.

Tikhonov D. N., Lipnik L. G. Tax planning and minimization of tax risks. Moscow: Alpina Business Books, 2004.
There.
Tikhonov D. N., Lipnik L. G. Decree. op.
Medvedev A. N. How to plan tax payments: practical. hands for entrepreneurs. M.: INFRA-M, 1996.

"Finance", 2011, N 1

The uncertainty of both the external and internal environment inevitably leads to the presence of risks in the implementation of management. Risk is inherent in any form of human activity, which is associated with a variety of conditions and factors that affect the positive outcome of people's decisions.

The modern economic dictionary defines risk as the danger of unforeseen losses of expected profit, income or property, cash, other resources due to an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, adverse circumstances.

Other authors understand risk as the possible danger of losses arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and activities of human society. As an economic category, risk is an event that may or may not occur. If such an event occurs, three economic outcomes are possible:

negative (loss, damage, loss);
zero (neutral);
positive (gain, benefit, profit).

The concept of tax risk has not yet been developed. Moreover, even the very formulation of the question of what constitutes tax risks is new.

Tax risks are most often understood as uncertainties that can lead to negative consequences.

The term "tax risk" is used quite rarely. More often in scientific circulation and in business practice such concepts as "banking risks", "audit risks", "currency risks", "insurance risks" are heard. The definition of tax risk, if it occurs, is mainly formulated from the position of the taxpayer.

Tax risk, according to V. Narezhny, is the danger of an unforeseen alienation of the taxpayer's funds due to actions (inaction) of state bodies and (or) local governments.

According to A.Yu. Che, tax risk from the point of view of the taxpayer is the probability (threat) of additional taxes (fees), penalties and fines during a tax audit due to disagreements between taxpayers and tax authorities in the interpretation of tax legislation, which can turn into a real increase in tax burden .

Obviously, from the position of the state, the definition of tax risk has a completely different content. The paradoxical position of the state lies in the fact that, being the main generator of tax risks in relation to an individual company, it is also the subject of tax risk management in the fiscal sphere. From the point of view of the state, represented by its authorized bodies, tax risk is the probability (threat) of not receiving taxes to the budget and state off-budget funds due to the use by taxpayers of tax minimization methods, which are possible due to certain shortcomings in tax legislation.

Thus, according to V.G. Panskov, tax risks should be characterized as the probability of financial losses for all participants in tax legal relations.

Legal entities, as a rule, assess and predict tax risks. The effectiveness of the assessment organization is largely determined by the risk classification. By the nature of the possible negative consequences tax risks are divided as follows.

The risk of tax control. The risk of tax control itself is not critical. But the tax audit simply paralyzes the work of some companies, which entails additional financial losses.

Risk of additional accrual of arrears and penalties. In general, this risk is most often predictable: it can be assessed either by internal audit services or by external audit.

Risk of sanctions and fines. This is a pretty significant risk. The penalty for a tax offense can be as high as 40% of the arrears - in such a situation, the fine can actually change the financial status of the company.

The risk of increasing the tax burden. After the taxpayer, at the request of the tax authorities, has adjusted financial statements, it turns out that he worked in completely different financial conditions. And as a result, the investor understands that the company deliberately deceived him by applying the scheme of adjusting the reporting to the business plan.

Risk of decrease or loss of liquidity. By reducing liquidity, the company can not only go bankrupt, but also lose investment attractiveness, which leads to panic and further deterioration of the financial condition.

The risk of seizure of assets. The tax authority has the right, under certain circumstances, to seize the assets of the company, including settlement accounts.

The risk of suspension of the company. Among the most striking examples of the occurrence of such a risk are pseudo-entrepreneurship or the fact that a company is not located at the address of its state registration.

Risk of criminal prosecution. In accordance with Art. 199 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, tax evasion is a criminal offense. In this regard, the risk of criminal prosecution for the leader is perhaps the most serious risk.

Bankruptcy risk. Here it is advisable to determine the time frame for the existence of the risk of bankruptcy. According to the departments for combating tax violations, the real life of the risk is 6 years. In his risk assessment, the author uses 5 years as the statutory retention period for accounting records.

The classification of risks according to the degree of reality proposed by A.V. Bryzgalin, includes obvious, probable and hidden risks. Explicit ones are that the taxpayer deliberately allows violations of the law in his activities. Possible risks are caused by the possibility of double interpretation of the current tax legislation. The tax authorities have their own, fiscal, interpretation of the rules. In parallel, there is also judicial interpretation, which is not always uniform in content. There is an unofficial interpretation, which is given by lawyers, representatives of science, and experts in the field of taxation. Hidden risks are risks that the taxpayer is unaware of. A typical example is one-day firms, when, during a tax audit, an inspector discovers that out of 200 counterparties of the taxpayer being audited, several have the characteristics of one-day firms. The audited taxpayer could not know about this, since he received commodity values from them.

By grouping risks on a temporary basis, it is possible to identify the risks of the past, present and future. The risks of the past are limited by the statute of limitations of tax control. Current period risks are forecasting of those problems that may arise due to decisions made today. Risks of the future - in the Tax Code of the Russian Federation there is a ban on giving retroactive effect to norms that worsen the position of taxpayers, but there remains such a risk of the future as the revision of judicial practice. One of the tax risks of the future A.V. Bryzgalin names the risk of double-checking.

There are several different causes of uncertainty (categories of risks): information risks, process risks, environmental risks and reputational risks. On the proposed classification, which seems the most interesting, in the opinion of the author, I would like to dwell in more detail.

First, the uncertainties arising from the need to carry out tax assessments (information risks). The risk of ambiguous interpretation of the law by the taxpayer and the tax authority is another typical risk for Russia. Experience shows that tax risks are associated with precisely those transactions that are carried out in order to achieve favorable tax consequences. You need to understand: when an enterprise seeks to save on taxes, it is in the zone of potential risk and therefore it is necessary to act extremely prudently. In the course of legal and tax analysis of planned transactions, as a rule, so-called tax risks are identified - situations where it is difficult even for a specialist to unambiguously answer the question "To pay or not to pay?".

The degree of risk can be assessed on the basis of established jurisprudence, and in the absence of such, it is necessary to initiate a litigation on your own in advance in order to create the necessary precedent and thereby launch the tax "time machine". Strictly speaking, case law is not officially recognized in Russia. But in fact, everything is different: judges do not want their decisions to be canceled, and therefore they try to take into account the position of higher judicial instances.

By virtue of the existing system of arbitration courts, the decision of the court of cassation is final for most litigation. Cases get to the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation extremely rarely, only as an exception. Therefore, if on some issue there is no corresponding explanation by the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, then the practice of "their" district court will be decisive for the courts of first and appellate instances, for taxpayers and tax authorities.

Secondly, a group of risks associated with incorrect fulfillment of tax obligations, errors in tax accounting or tax planning (process risks). Process risks can be conditionally divided into several subgroups:

Risks associated with a particular transaction. In terms of the risk of tax risks, one cannot compare the usual supply of goods with trade within the group, and even when crossing the border. Risks arise when an enterprise enters into a large or unusual transaction (personnel, systems, databases, control procedures are not set up to fully cope with the risk). This category includes the risks of technical or factual errors in the process of calculating taxes and (or) delay in their payment. The danger of such risks is also expressed in the fact that each individual risk may be small, but in the aggregate they can create a threatening situation, especially if the enterprise has an extensive branch network. The management of the company should ask themselves what will happen if the risks add up; are there enough resources to neutralize the consequences; whether the result of development under such a scenario would be acceptable. You have to be prepared for the worst situation. Such risks are commonly referred to as portfolio risks. In this situation, setting up a document management system, internal control, and a thorough audit by external auditors can help.
Risks arise from simple managerial errors and oversights when tax or accounting departments are not involved in the process of making managerial decisions. In practice, this means that the company does not have a clear organizational structure for risk management. Accordingly, the more specialized departments are involved in the planning of the company's operations, especially the so-called non-standard ones, and not just reflect their results, the more justified it is to talk about risk management.
The deal is poorly documented. One of the frequent causes of negative tax consequences is insufficient documentary evidence of what kind of transaction the company has carried out. It is no coincidence that the tax authorities are increasingly demanding the submission of full documentation in order to make sure that the declared transaction is actually carried out. Unfortunately, very often this documentation is either insufficient or non-existent.

Documentary confirmation of economic feasibility significantly reduces tax risks, but existing on this moment it is not regulated by tax legislation: we can only talk about general principles preparation of such documents.

Unfortunately for Lately we observe a clearly defined trend associated with the peculiarities of tax control. It is impossible not to mention in this connection the situation with the issuance of invoices. So, for example, the lack of decryption of the signature of the person who signed the invoice, or an error in the legal address of the counterparty serve as grounds for refusing to refund value added tax (VAT) on this invoice, the amount of which can be both 100 and 200, and 500 million rubles At the same time, neither the enterprise's references to making changes to the invoice, nor the counter-checks of counterparties, confirming the fact of accrual of tax on revenue and payment of tax to the budget, are taken into account. That is, the fact that the buyer pays the tax to the seller and the latter transfers this tax to the budget does not mean the right of the former to offset the VAT paid to the budget. An adequate judicial practice is currently called upon to resolve this contradiction, and in the future - a legislative settlement of this problem.

Thirdly, the risks arising from the enforcement of tax legislation by tax authorities and courts (environmental risks). This category also includes risks arising from the uncertainty of the application of tax laws in different circumstances, and the risks of possible changes in tax laws or practices, as well as unexpected judgments, "change of power", from the federal minister to the tax inspector. The management of the company may face a very difficult task if the branches of the enterprise are geographically scattered throughout Russia, since in our country in St. Petersburg the legislation is interpreted differently than in Moscow. If the business crosses the borders of the country, the situation is even more complicated. The organization cannot influence the likelihood of these risks, and therefore they can also be designated as external risks.

Fourth, reputational risks are the risks of damaging the company's reputation.

The classification of tax risks according to various criteria revealed, in our opinion, the main drawback of the definition of tax risk, which was designated as the probability of financial losses. It is obvious that the company's losses in case of classifying the risk of bankruptcy, the risk of suspension of the company's activities, the risk of damage to the company's reputation, the risk of criminal prosecution of company officials as tax risks cannot be reduced to purely financial losses. Indeed, the bulk of the negative consequences one way or another leads to financial losses for the company, but by no means boils down to them. So, according to A.V. Grachev, tax risks can be expressed not only in the form of real financial losses, but also as negative legal consequences of the actions of state and municipal authorities.

In this regard, it would be correct, in our opinion, to define tax risk as the probability of negative consequences of any kind for all participants in tax relations.

Literature

Raizberg B.A., Lozovsky L.Sh., Starodubtseva E.B. Modern economic dictionary. M.: INFRA-M, 2007. S. 358.
Tsyrkunova T.A., Migunova M.I. Tax risks: essence and classification // Finance and credit. 2005. N 33. S. 48 - 53.
Narezhny V. M&A without the right to tax risk // Consultant. 2008. No. 1.
Che A.Yu. On tax risks // Tax Bulletin. 2007. No. 10.
Pinskaya M.R. Tax risk: essence and manifestations // Finance. 2009. No. 2.
Panskov V.G. Tax risks: taxpayers and the state // Tax Bulletin. 2009. No. 1.
Pavlenko N.A. How to classify tax risks // Your tax lawyer. 2008. No. 12.
Bryzgalin A. Speech at the Second All-Russian Tax Congress 18 - 11/19/2008.
Grachev A.V. Tax risks and risks of dishonest business conduct // Finance. 2009. N 3.

O.V. Gordeeva

tax consultant

Characterizing the likelihood of unforeseen financial losses associated with the introduction of new types, an increase in the amount of existing taxes, the abolition of those used by the enterprise or, a change in the procedure and timing of tax payments.

Tax risk includes the danger for the subject of tax legal relations to incur financial and other losses associated with the taxation process, due to negative deviations for this subject from the states of the future assumed by him, based on the current rules of law, based on which he makes decisions in the present.

Tax risks also arise in case of insufficient elaboration of tax legislation, the vagueness of its individual provisions. In this case, the taxpayer's tax risks arise in connection with their use of risky, attempts to take advantage of the duality of the provisions of tax laws, as well as due to the conduct of an inefficient tax policy by an economic entity.

Tax risks are considered from the position of the state and the taxpayer. Thus, there are clearly significant differences in the systems of tax risk factors for the state (represented by authorized tax authorities) and taxpayers, as a result of which there are also differences in the manifestation of tax risks.

There are three main groups of tax risks.

Group	Decryption
I - a clear threat of bringing to tax and even criminal liability	Risks arise in case of gross tax evasion. In such situations, the risk of prosecution is very high. In practice, there are more and more cases when, when considering criminal cases, the courts give the guilty real terms of imprisonment.
II - dangers of bringing to tax liability caused by inaccuracy and uncertainty of legislative norms	Risks arise when there is no unambiguous answer to any question in the tax legislation. Experts, auditors, the Ministry of Finance disagree, judicial practice is not uniform, and the Supreme Court of Appeal has not yet formed its legal position. Even if the organization is guided by good arbitration practice, there is a possibility that the Supreme Arbitration Court will decide otherwise.
III - subjective risks	Risks of personal judgments of tax inspectors and their interpretation of tax legislation and activities of the audited organization. The risks of detection during the verification of one-day firms among the counterparties of the organization, while companies often, for objective reasons, cannot verify all their counterparties and do not have the authority to do so.

Financial tax risks can be assessed in monetary terms (in addition, tax relations are part of financial relations). Criminal liability cannot legally be valued in monetary terms, while other types of liability may have a monetary value.

There are several types of tax risks:

tax control risks significantly depend on the level of activity of the taxpayer in relation to tax minimization. For a law-abiding taxpayer, the risks of tax control are quite small and rather boil down to the possibility of occurrence and detection by tax authorities of random errors tax accounting. For a taxpayer who takes active steps to minimize taxes, these risks increase significantly;
risks of increased tax burden- these risks are inherent in long-term economic projects, such as new enterprises, investments in real estate and equipment, long-term loans. Such risks include the emergence of new taxes, the increase in the rates of existing taxes and the abolition of tax incentives;
risks of prosecution— Significant financial losses may also occur to taxpayers as part of the criminal prosecution for the commission of offenses provided for by the Criminal Code.

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