Consumer potential is calculated by the formula. Komarov S.V.

With regard to consumer potential as an economic category, there are no particular discrepancies in the interpretation of its essence among economists. As a rule, consumer potential is determined by "the capacity of the market, that is, the amount of goods that can be sold on the market under the most favorable conditions for a certain period of time" . The definition of consumer potential through the maximum possible qualitatively determined amount of goods and services that can absorb the national (local) market over a certain period of time at an equilibrium price has almost the same meaning. There is also a narrow understanding of the consumer potential of the region, determined through the volume of retail trade turnover. Along with this, a more detailed name of the term under consideration is proposed, namely “consumer and marketing potential”, which, in fact, has the same meaning and characterizes “the potential sales volume of certain goods within the boundaries of a specific investment area during a given period. The volume of sales depends on the magnitude of the demand for the product, the general market situation, the income of the population and business activity.

The above definitions make it possible to establish the following list of indicators for assessing consumer potential: average per capita income of the population, the number of people with cash incomes below the subsistence level, wholesale and retail, the volume of paid services and specific indicators calculated on their basis

Retail and wholesale trade, as well as the service sector, together form a consumer market, which is directly related to the sale of goods (works, services) of mass demand for the population, and therefore is subject to the influence of the solvency factor of the population.

Effective demand in the investment process is of paramount importance. For example, in world practice to assess investment projects approaches are used World Bank and the UNIDO methodology, including social analysis as a mandatory element of the project justification, the task of which is not only to determine the suitability of the proposed projects from the point of view of the interests of the target population groups, but also to assess the solvent demand of potential consumers.

The indicators of the population's solvency include: the average nominal wage, which is the price of the "labor" factor prevailing in the economy, and the average per capita income, reflecting the income per capita, which is important for investors when assessing potential demand. That is why, to assess effective demand, the latter indicator was chosen as the main one and supplemented by a relative indicator of the population with cash incomes below the subsistence level.

Table 2.2.5 presents statistical and calculated information on the dynamics of absolute, relative and specific indicators related to the consumer potential of the Moscow Region for 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014.

The growth rate of average per capita income in 2005 and 2010 is very high: during the first of the 3 considered five-year plans, the indicator grew almost 4 times, in the second - a little more than 3 times, and in the 3rd about 1 .5 times (in more detail in the average annual dynamics, the analysis of average per capita income was carried out in paragraph 2.1.2).

Table 2.2.5

Indicators of the consumer potential of the Moscow region in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014

Name of indicator
Average per capita income of the population, rub.
Growth rate of per capita income (chain, %)
Total income of the population, million rubles*
Retail trade turnover in current basic prices, million rubles
Growth rate of retail trade turnover, %
turnover wholesale trade in current basic prices, million rubles
Growth rate of wholesale trade turnover in current basic prices %
The volume of paid services to the population, million rubles
The growth rate of the volume of paid services to the population
Retail trade turnover per capita, rub.
Growth rate of retail trade turnover per capita, %
Turnover of wholesale trade per capita, rub.
Growth rate of wholesale trade turnover per capita, %
The volume of paid services per capita, rub.
Growth rate of paid services per capita, %

Source: Rosstat

The volume and trends in retail, wholesale trade and paid services to the population largely characterize the standard of living of the population. It is through trade and services that cash incomes are realized, received in accordance with the quantity and quality of labor expended. This finds expression in the dynamics of these indicators in absolute and specific terms (ie per capita). Paid services to the population include: household, transport, communication services, housing, utilities, services of hotels and similar places of accommodation, services of the education system, culture, tourism, services physical culture and sports, medical, health-improving, legal services, and others.

The ratio of the absolute growth of consumer potential indicators is shown in Figure 2.2.4. Theoretically, the relationship between wholesale trade and retail trade is obvious, but in fact, the growth dynamics of the two groups of indicators has little similarity. The indicator of wholesale trade turnover increased the most during the period under study, and in 2000 its value in current prices was less than the corresponding value of retail trade turnover - 91,380.7 million rubles. against 96770 million rubles. However, the sharp growth in wholesale trade over the period 2000-2005. (by 886.5%, or 9.86 times) led to the fact that its turnover, which in 2005 reached 901437 million rubles. significantly exceeded the turnover of retail trade, which increased in the same year to 369,929 million rubles, i.e. about 2.4 times.

In 2010, the gap between the indicators increased even more due to the fact that the growth rate of wholesale trade again exceeded the growth rate of retail trade (the value of the indicators was 279.49% and 174.86%, respectively). In 2014, wholesale trade declined by 4.66% compared to 2010, while retail trade increased, although the growth rate slowed down to 55.63% by 2010. Consumer demand has a greater impact on on retail trade, and the supply of manufacturers to a greater extent influences wholesale trade.

The dynamics of indicators of the volume of paid services has its own specifics, and therefore, in addition to statistical and analytical data, we will consider annual data for the period 2005-2014. The figure shows that the dynamics of the volume of paid services demonstrates a constant growth (Table 2.2.5).

Figure 2.2.4 - Dynamics of retail trade turnover, wholesale trade turnover, the volume of paid services in the Moscow Region in 2000, 2005, 2010,

2014, billion rubles

emerged in 2009 (by 13.8 p.p.), in 2011 (by 2.9 p.p.), and in 2014 (by 26.8 p.p.). It is easy to assume that in the context of a decrease in the average wages, which occurred in 2014, the population redistributed their spending in favor of essential goods, refusing a significant part of the services.

Figure 2.2.6 - Dynamics of growth in the volume of paid services in the Moscow region for the period 2005-2014,%

The dynamics of wholesale and retail trade turnover per capita has the same trends, since the population in the years under study changed insignificantly. Accordingly, in absolute terms, the most high values characteristic of wholesale trade turnover per capita, sharp jumps occurred in 2005 to 2000 (by 839.9%, i.e. 9.4 times), and in 2010 to 2005 (by 262 3%, i.e. 3.6 times), later in 2014 there was a decline of 6.3% compared to 2010, taking into account the inflation factor, we are talking about a more significant decline in real terms. Similarly, retail trade turnover per capita changed in full accordance with the dynamics of the retail trade turnover indicator - at the same time, there was an absolute growth and a slowdown in the growth rate (267% in 2005 to 2000, 163% in 2010 to 2005, 53.1% in 2014 to 2010).

The volume of paid services per capita in the Moscow region is very low. According to calculations for 2014, its value amounted to just over 59 thousand rubles. If this value is converted into an average monthly, then it will turn out to be approximately 4,927 rubles, which is comparable to the cost of travel in public transport. As a positive moment, it should be noted that the sphere of paid services is gaining momentum - the growth rates are the highest, although they repeat the same trend as most indicators.

To clarify the situation in the consumer market, in relation to the assessment of the retail trade turnover and the volume of paid services per capita, we use the comparison method, comparing these indicators with the income of the population. To this end, we will carry out an estimated calculation by converting annual data into monthly averages in order to ensure comparability of indicators. The results of the comparison are shown in Figure 2.2.7.

Figure 2.2.7 - Correlation of indicators, average per capita income of the population, retail trade turnover and the volume of paid services in the Moscow Region in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, rub.

Note that wholesale turnover per capita is not used in this assessment procedure, since its consumers are mainly economic entities, and not the population.

As Figure 2.2.7 shows, the average per capita income for the periods under study significantly exceeded the indicators of retail trade turnover and the volume of paid services to the population. Thus, the consumer market in the part directly related to the population is fully provided with effective demand, and the difference between average per capita income and retail trade turnover, as well as the volume of paid services increases over the years, which together form the current consumption of the population, and incomes in excess of current consumption can be be considered as a potential consumer demand, or as an investment source.

Figure 2.2.8 visually presents the results of calculating the potential of consumer demand.

Figure 2.2.8 - Dynamics of indicators characterizing the potential of consumer demand

Moscow region in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, million rubles

The algorithm for calculating the above indicator in the form of annual data is as follows: 1) the total income of the population is determined by converting average per capita income from average monthly to average annual data; 2) the total value of the retail trade turnover and the volume of paid services is calculated; 3) the difference between the obtained indicators is calculated.

The identified potential of effective demand can be used in 2 main directions - for consumption or for savings. Growth in consumption contributes to the expansion of wholesale, retail and service industries. Household savings are used to invest in real sector and the social infrastructure of the economy. This contributes to increased employment, growth in real incomes, improved living conditions of the population and, ultimately, economic growth.

Moscow region in numbers. Statistical collection. M. S.243

Comprehensive assessment of the consumer potential of the food market

Food Market Consumption Potential Integrated Assessment

Kuznetsova Ludmila Valerievna

Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics, Management and Marketing

Ufa branch of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

e-mail: [email protected]

Annotation.The article discusses topical issues methodology of marketing research of consumer potential of the food market. A methodological sequence of a comprehensive assessment of consumer potential is proposed, taking into account the growing importance of the influence of the state of food consumption on the development of the human potential of the population.

Keywords.Consumer potential, food market, quality of life, consumer loyalty, consumer satisfaction, market macrosegmentation.

summary.The article regards topical issues of food market consumption potential marketing evaluation methodology. The methodological procedure of consumption potential integrated assessment considering the increasing importance of food consumption impact to human development is proposed.

key words.Consumption potential, food market, living standards, customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, market macro - segmentation.

The growing importance of managing the consumer potential of the food market causes interest in the principles, methods, and tools for its research. Consumer potential – it is the content of the needs of the market, reproduced by means of consumption technology, which has two forms of manifestation: economic and social. Consumer behavior is a social form of consumer potential, and is a process of achieving the anticipated results of utility appropriation in which the final goals of production and the marketing methodology for their implementation are the determinants of the development of consumer potential..

The market capacity is recognized as economicform of manifestation of consumer potential and occupies an intermediate position between abstraction and empirical facts, reflecting the dialectic of the interaction of needs, social relations and economic conditions of the market and represents the cost equivalent of the needs of society, which is the economic condition for social reproduction.

Most studies of the consumption system are based on the principles of positivism, using as a generalizing and evidence base empirical data. In a deeper understanding, research methodology is not just a combination or even synthesis of research methods, but a reflection of the connection between theoretical concepts and reasonable conclusions about real socio-economic processes.

The developed methodological sequence for assessing the consumer potential of the food market has the following features (Fig. 1).

Firstly, the prescriptive property of the marketing research methodology, expressed in the improvement of the processes of cognition of consumer potential, we associate with the principle of interdependence the quality of life of society (as a condition for the formation of human potential) and consumer capital (as a form of its involvement in the process of social reproduction).

Rice. 1. Methodological sequence of a comprehensive assessment of the consumer potential of the food market

Secondly, the system of indicators of consumer potential is formed by integrating indicators of market capacity, quality of life and consumer capital and includes quantitative, qualitative, structural indicators that combine both objective and subjective methods of their assessment.

Thirdly, a management technique that provides an integrated approach to the study of the state of consumer potential combines substantive, structural and functional approaches. The system of indicators of consumer potential includes quantitative, structural and qualitative indicators.

Quantitative indicators reflect the volume of consumption as an indicator of the quality of life and market demand as an indicator of consumer capital. Market demand is the total demand of all consumers for a particular good. In this case, an important methodological issue is related to the choice of the level of aggregation of the “good”, in order to determine the commodity boundaries of the market. Commodity market boundaries allow us to consider certain markets as a whole based on the identification of goods, their substitutes, as well as complementary goods.

Structural indicators reflect the content of consumer potential in terms of consumer well-being, i.e. the object structure of consumption and the differentiation of consumption by various subjects of consumption. From the point of view of consumer potential (PC), the reproduction of needs can also be differentiated from the standpoint of the parameters of individual demand. Unlike individual demand, market demand depends not only on the individual system of preferences and the level of well-being, but also on the number of consumers, the degree of their heterogeneity.

Qualitative indicators of consumer potential is a complex phenomenon determined by the action of a number of factors, but from our point of view, it is subordinate to consumption technology. One of the features of the proposed approach to the classification of indicators of consumer potential is that qualitative certainty, in terms of quality of life and consumer potential, is proposed to be assessed in the same areas that reflect the process of consumer behavior: utility understanding, utility perception and utility appropriation. The parameters of the consumer potential within the framework of these indicators should reflect the specifics of the phenomenon under study as a goal-realizing system. This approach is due to the fact that it is the qualitative indicators that approximate the trends in the action of the factors that form the understanding of utility and the perception of the means of obtaining it, and thus allow us to identify the essence and sources of consumer potential development.

In table. Table 1 shows the general content of the proposed qualitative indicators of consumer potential, their actual content and calculation methods are determined based on the characteristics of the commodity market, the consumer potential of which is being studied.

Table 1

Qualitative indicators of consumer potential

The substantive approach makes it possible to study the economic and social form in the interconnection of the functions and structure inherent in the system of consumption, i.e. evolution of market capacity in terms of consumer behavior.The marketing nature of the mechanism of targeted reproduction of needs is due to the fact that a new quality is generated by the dialectic of structures and relationships. The entry of society into the post-industrial era not only changed the role of the human factor, but also activated the action of multi-level causal relationships acting simultaneously in three interacting "fields": material, information and the field of "expectations". Under these conditions, the study of consumer potential adopts the paradigm of postmodernism, which implies an individualized approach based on the need to understand the consumer and consider economic processes through the prism of reproducible needs. In this regard, it is necessary to reconsider not only the set of factors taken into account that determine the dialectics of the social and economic forms of consumer potential, but also the methods used to identify and evaluate them.

Structural approach provides micro-marketing stability of macro-marketing estimates and forecasts of consumer potential by highlighting types of consumption. In the process of a comprehensive assessment of consumer potential aggregation of objects of consumption should ensure the degree of their homogeneity to the point beyond which they lose the property of interchangeability. The study of consumer potential at the level of consumer groups allows us to present it as an integrated state of individual markets, characterized by certain features of formation. At the level of empirical assessments, it is possible to determine the boundaries within which consumer behavior remains predictable. The validity of individual consumer behavior lies in the fact that freedom of choice exists within certain structures of relationships, in which the technology of consumption takes a defining place. The influence of institutions of culture, traditions, religion, family, etc. is a constitutive factor. It is the revealed behavior of consumers that makes it possible to judge preferences, and not vice versa.

A feature of the approach used is that it is possible to single out factors at the macro level, but their systematization should be carried out taking into account microeconomic patterns. In addition, microanalysis allows us to put forward hypotheses that, if confirmed by macrotrends, can change the factor representation of consumer potential.

The selection of factors influencing consumer potential seems to be a rather complicated process both from a classification point of view and due to the inadequacy of the impact of individual factors over time, as well as the difficulty of quantifying such important determinants as information and expectations. In addition, the factors of consumer potential are themselves in a causal relationship and are subject to systemic changes.

Microeconomic stability of predicted indicators of consumer potential methodically provided by macrosegmentation. This type of segmentation is considered as a method of product market identification. Unlike microsegmentation, where the boundaries of the product market are set taking into account the interchangeability and equivalence of goods, and therefore, the differentiation of preferences is determined by actual needs, macrosegmentation of the product market can be defined as a system of basic models of consumer behavior regarding the satisfaction of absolute needs. The purpose of macrosegmentation is not to analyze the diversity of needs, but to identify the conditions for the manifestation of the greatest differences in consumer preferences. In this sense, macrosegmentation is successfully used as a method of socio-economic stratification.

It is necessary to note one more important property of macrosegmentation, which is implemented in the process of analyzing the consumer potential of the commodity market. Macro-segmentation is a reflection of the actual characteristics of consumer behavior differentiation, to which the term “natural stratification” can be applied. For microsegmentation, an important issue is the choice of inter-group (nominal) boundaries of differentiation in the system of "characteristics of consumers - properties of consumed goods".

The signs of macrosegmentation in relation to microsegmentation can be transformed into criteria and used not only as a way to “evaluate the reasonable choice of a particular segment” . Their use is also expedient for identifying those features (indicators), according to which it is possible or necessary to identify potential market segments for a particular product.

The purpose of the functional approach is to identify trends in the development of consumer potential in terms of achieving goals - ensuring the growth of the quality of life and consumer capital.

The implementation of the functional approach is provided using indicators that reflect the essence of the identified cause-and-effect relationships for assessing consumer potential based on the principle of strategic correspondence between the forms of implementation and the conditions for developing human potential.

The predictive power of indicators should be determined by their ability to reflect driving forces consumer potential, which are sources of internal contradictions in the process of reproduction of needs. Therefore, these can be synthetic indicators expressing the relationship between needs and consumption; absolute needs and demand; income and the nature of their distribution in society; the urgency of needs and the limited financial resources used to satisfy them, etc.

To understand the factors contributing to the development of human potential, the development of appropriate tools for assessing the quality of life is required. As the authors note, at present the indicator "quality of life" does not have a generally recognized formalized structure and a standard set of indicators.

The multidimensional measurement of well-being remains one of the important challenges in creating quality-of-life indicators that can focus attention on people-centred development and promote discussion about what can contribute to social progress. Thus, indicators of consumer potential should reflect the quality of life through “real” freedoms: the opportunity to lead a life that ensures real and subjective well-being (Table 2).

table 2

Consumer Potential Indicators *

Western studies combine objective (statistical) and subjective measurements based on regular mass surveys of the population or expert assessments. The main empirical problem hindering the dissemination of research on the quality of life is the need for regular sociological surveys. The methodological problem lies in the fact that any integral assessment requires determining the significance (weight) of individual components of the quality of life. Otherwise, there is a compensatory interaction of indicators.

The result of the study should be not only the value of some average value characterizing life satisfaction, but also a comparison of this value with social factors, information about the perception of various factors of quality of life by different groups of the population, as well as a comparison of the values of these factors themselves among themselves.

In general, the above indicators of the quality of life practically do not reflect the contribution of the consumption system to the development of the human potential of consumers, despite the fact that consumer satisfaction and the actual state of nutrition have a significant impact on the studied processes.

The assessment of consumer capital has two directions - willingness to make purchases and satisfaction with purchases.

In Russia, such macroeconomic indicators include the consumer sentiment index (CSI), similar to the indicator consumer Sentiment Index (A CSI ), included in the US in the list of key indicators characterizing the short-term prospects for economic development and consumer confidence index (CSI).

Consumer sentiment index shows the prevalence of different opinions and assessments among the mass consumer.

The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated based on the results of the Survey of Consumer Expectations of the Population (OPON) conducted by Rosstat as part of the Federal State Statistical Observation once a quarter based on a network for household budget surveys with a subsample of 5,000 households in all regions of the Russian Federation.

Currently, the most successful are two methods for assessing customer satisfaction - customer satisfaction index customer satisfaction Index (CSI ) and net promoter index Net promoter Score ( NPS ).

Methodology CSI allows you to evaluate the impact of a significant number of factors on customer satisfaction and provides a strong correlation of the index with the economic performance of business systems. Each of the indicators-factors used in assessing the perceived quality has significance, i.e. the degree of importance of this indicator for the consumer. Within the framework used in the construction CSI methodology, the importance of a particular factor for consumers in terms of their satisfaction is determined as a result of statistical data processing, i.e. shows actual rather than declared differences between factors. Consumer satisfaction factors have a pronounced industry specificity, and their analysis allows us to identify specific starting points for improving marketing.

The complex indicator "loyalty" is determined on the basis of assessments of the intentions of repeat purchases, the desire for further contacts and the readiness to continue the relationship. The first indicator reflects the propensity of consumers to choose the same products in the future to meet their needs, the second reflects the degree of trust in contacts with manufacturers, and the third reflects the degree of stability of consumer preferences.

Methodology NPS is based on the analysis of one aspect of satisfaction - the willingness of consumers to recommend products to their friends. From the point of view of consumer potential, this technique does not allow taking into account the main factors in the formation of consumer capital of business systems, although it gives a quite adequate assessment of it, and for a number of business areas - larger than CSI .

Thus, as CSI , and ECSI reflect the value-target orientations of the subjects of the consumption system in the plane economic relations: Direct relationship between Satisfaction, Loyalty and Profitability. This circumstance significantly limits the possibility of using the National Index in the process of assessing the consumer potential of the food market. To form a qualitative indicator of the consumer potential of the food market, it is necessary to model the relationship between the Level of satisfaction, Loyalty and Quality of life of consumers within the framework of the industry index of consumer satisfaction.

Literature

Anurin V., Muromkina I., Evtushenko E. Marketing research consumer market. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2004. - 270 p.
Belyaeva L.A. Level and quality of life. Problems of measurement and interpretation // Sociological research. - 2009. - No. 1 [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://hghltd.yandex.net/yandbtm?fmode
Ibragimova D.Kh., Nikolaenko S.A. Consumer Sentiment Index / Independent Institute for Social Policy. – M.: Pomatur, 2005. – 125 p.
Quality of Life Index of Russian Regions: Methodology and Assessment Methodology. [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http ://www .inreginfo .en /upload/ analitika .
Nosikova O.O. Methodology for Measuring Customer Satisfaction in Russian Service Companies // Practical Marketing. – 2010. – No. 6, pp. 18–23.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, s Quality-of-life Index: [Electronic resource ]. – Mode access : http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/ QUALITY_OF_LIFE.pdf
http://atlas.socpol.ru/indexes/index_life.shtml
http://www.epsi-russia.org

One of the main problems of researching the consumer market in transitional conditions is to determine the market capacity and the degree of satisfaction of consumer demand. Assessment of the capacity of the regional consumer market as a whole and calculation of the market capacity certain types consumer goods are necessary for each enterprise (firm) to analyze its capabilities in this consumer market. This or that state of the market to a certain extent depends on its potential. Commodity supply and demand are forms of functioning of the market potential.

Market potential is a forecast set of production and consumer forces that determine supply and demand.

The production potential acts in the form of an opportunity to produce and present to the market a certain volume of goods (products and services). It is opposed by consumer potential, which manifests itself in the form of the market's ability to absorb (ie, buy) a certain amount of products and services. Naturally, the assessment and analysis of the production potential are within the scope of the buyer's marketing interests, and the assessment and analysis of the consumer potential are primarily of interest to the seller.

The result of the realization of the potential of the market for goods and services is the satisfaction of consumer demand, the involvement of the mass of commodities and the mass of services in the sphere of circulation and their subsequent transition to the sphere of consumption (in the sphere of services, these two processes are not always separated in time, while in the sphere of commodity circulation they are, as usually separates a significant amount of time).

The purpose of market potential assessment is to characterize market opportunities both at the macro level and at the micro level of individual firms. Each company needs an assessment to analyze its own capabilities. overall capacity market in order to reasonably decide the issue of targeting a certain segment (when dividing or conquering the market). Thus, the definition of the consumer potential of the market is an important link in the system of studying consumer demand. Consumer potential is characterized market capacity. This indicator is close to the volume of demand, but not identical to it.

Market capacity - the quantity (cost) of goods that the market can absorb under certain conditions for a certain period of time.

Analysis of the company's product portfolio

Methods for evaluating the company's product portfolio.

ABC analysis.

The idea of the ABC analysis method is based on the Pareto principle: “a relatively small number of causes are responsible for the majority of possible outcomes”, currently better known as the “20/80 rule”. This method of analysis has been greatly developed due to its versatility and efficiency.

The essence of this analysis lies in the fact that all stock items are classified, the data on the reserves of which are supported on the basis of the relative importance of these items, and for each selected category, their own inventory management methods are formed. Usually they resort to a three-stage ranking of stock items: into classes A, B and C. It can also be said that different levels of control over their stocks are established for different categories of stock items.

With the help of this analysis, product groups are broken down by the degree of influence on the overall result. Moreover, the principle of grouping can be the amount of revenue received from a particular group of products, sales volume, or some other parameters. Often revenue is more revealing as a grouping criterion. Grouping by sales volume can be adequate if the analyzed product groups are homogeneous in composition and price.

The sales ABC analysis algorithm is based on the division of the analyzed data by the share of the sales indicator into 3 groups:

^ A - the most valuable, customers with whom the company makes 75% of sales;

B - intermediate, with which the company makes 20% of sales;

C - the least valuable, with which the company makes 5% of sales.

1. Frequent evaluation of the forecast and forecasting method.

Frequent, such as monthly, cyclic inventory counts with tight tolerances. Any significant deviation of the data on stocks recorded in the information system from the data according to the calculation (which can also be called the current inventory) is unacceptable. It makes sense to conduct a traditional full inventory once a year or every six months.

2. Daily data update in the database. That is, for such item positions, it is necessary to use a system with continuous updating of inventory data.

Frequent review of demand requirements, lot sizes, safety stock, usually resulting in relatively small order (lot) sizes. It is necessary to carefully monitor all planning parameters, identify real needs for stock items. The desire for small lot sizes may be dictated by the possibility of reducing both direct and hidden costs associated with keeping items in stock.

3. Careful tracking and shortening of the cycle time. The shorter the cycle time, the lower the need for working capital. And since the bulk of the need is formed by stocks of item items of class A (at least in terms of working capital in stocks of raw materials, work in progress and finished products), managing the cycle time for them pays off handsomely.

For Class B item items, the same measures apply as for Class A item items, but less frequently and with greater acceptable tolerances.

The following rules are formulated for class C positions:

· Rule of thumb: Items must be in stock… You could also put it this way: inventory of Class C items can be more than necessary, but must not be less than necessary.

· Simple data fixing or no data fixing at all in the database; it is possible to use the procedure of periodic inspection (review) to control the volume of stocks.

· Big sizes parties (orders) and a large safety stock. Large batches do not entail significant costs associated with the storage of inventory items of class C, so it makes sense to save mainly on preparation costs by ordering in large quantities.

· Storage in areas immediately accessible to personnel using these items in the production process. This simplifies the procedure for issuing stocks to production and eliminates unnecessary bureaucratic paperwork also entailing certain costs.

· Infrequent (rare) counting of reserves (once a year or half a year) with large acceptable tolerances (up to, for example, weighing instead of counting).

Similar information.

As a result of studying this chapter, the student should: know

determination of market potential;
the essence of methods for assessing the potential of the product market; be able to
assess the market potential of the product;
apply the basic methods of sales forecasting in practice; own
skills to use sales forecasting methods in practice.

Determination of market potential

The goal of a company operating in a highly competitive market is to earn a profit no lower than its average rate in the industry and strive to develop the potential of the market by 100%. In the economic literature, the concept of "market potential" is usually understood as the maximum sales volume in a particular market in a given period of time. It can also be defined as the possible total sales of all companies operating in a given market.

The regularity of assessing the market potential is extremely important for the company, since its values are used by product managers in substantiating and making final management decisions, decisions on the allocation of a certain amount of necessary resources, geographical location elements of the business infrastructure, on setting the company's goals and evaluating the performance indicators of its functioning. In addition, the results of the assessment of the market potential act as a starting material for making forecasts for the further development of the company.

Practitioners in evaluating the potential of the market as

sources of information usually use data from secondary sources of marketing information, including government agencies, data on previous sales. Primary data are also extremely informative, despite their high cost (for example, surveys).

Often, under the potential of the market, experts consider a predictive assessment of the maximum production and consumer opportunities of the market, where production potential is the ability to produce and present a certain amount of goods and services to the market, and consumer potential is the ability of the market to purchase a certain amount of goods and services. Consequently, consumers are interested in assessing the production potential, and sellers and producers of goods and services need to assess the consumer potential.

Market production potential can be calculated using the following formula:

Where Q- production potential of the market, i.е. the volume of goods that can be produced and offered to the market during a certain period of time; N:- enterprises producing this product; W, - capacity of the enterprise (enterprises); D,- the degree of loading of production areas; R, - degree of provision with resources; Er- the elasticity of supply from the prices of raw materials and finished products; B - domestic production consumption (according to standards); WITH- part of the products produced by competitors; P- the number of manufacturing enterprises.

When calculating this potential for an individual, specific firm you can use this formula:

Where q,- volume of production planned for enterprise for release in accordance with the order book (q, = W, ? D, Rt).

Calculation consumer potential determined by the market capacity, i.e. the quantity (value) of specific goods that can be sold on the market under certain conditions for a given period of time.

Market volume can be expressed by the formula

Where E- market volume; 5, - strength Mr. consumer groups; k- level (coefficient) of consumption in the base period or consumption standard (physiological or technological); Er- coefficient of elasticity of demand from prices and incomes; R- the volume of the normal insurance reserve of goods; H - market saturation; If - physical wear and tear of goods; And m - obsolescence of goods; A- alternative forms of satisfaction of needs (household, "black" market, substitute goods); WITH- share of competitors.

Thus, as the experience of many manufacturing companies shows, the actual sales volume in the industry is slightly below the potential of the market, since the functions of production and distribution of goods are not able to fully satisfy the needs of all buyers who are willing and able to purchase a product in a certain period of time 1 .

Important to remember!

The market potential is the upper limit of sales, which can be achieved by all its participants in the commodity-generic, typical and specific markets.

Such concepts as "forecast" and "quota" are closely related to the concept of "market potential".

Forecast - the volume of sales that is expected to be achieved under a given set of conditions over a certain period of time. They reflect expectations that are usually below market potential.

Quota - a task ("sales plan") that is set by a top manager for a specific product.

In general, the magnitude of the potential and forecast values further market development depends on:

from the actions of consumers of the product;
actions of the manufacturer;
actions of competing companies;
changes external environment manufacturer.

Petrenko Elena Stepanovna, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management, Bolashak Karaganda University, Development Director of Senimdik LLP, Chairman of the Association of Restaurateurs of the Karaganda Region, Kazakhstan

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Sources:

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8. Samoukin A.I. The potential of non-material production. - M.: Knowledge, 1991. - 5 p.
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10. Rozhdestvenskaya L.N., Glavcheva S.I. The use of economic diagnostics in the strategic management of the public catering market // Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship. - 2011. - No. 8. Issue. 1 (189). – c. 149-154. – http://www..

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