Missile attack on Syria: who actually shot down the American Tomahawks? Why didn't Russia shoot down American missiles in Syria? Why are they bombing Syria if they are standing at 400?
Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which include USS Porter and USS Ross, can carry up to 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a time. According to the Pentagon, on the night of April 6-7, American ships fired 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian air base. "On this moment there are five or six ships of the US Sixth Fleet in the region that can use such missiles,” says independent military analyst Anton Lavrov.
The Russian military department considers the attack of American missiles to be ineffective. "According to Russian funds objective control, only 23 missiles reached the Syrian airbase. The crash site of the remaining 36 cruise missiles is unknown,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said at a briefing on Friday morning.
This is an extremely low level of implementation for these missiles, says Alexander Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis. According to him, it is not clear where the 36 missiles could have gone and who could have shot them down.
The statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense was denied by the Pentagon. According to the US military, out of 59 missiles, 58 reached their target, one missile did not work.
Cruise missiles of this type are used American army since 1991. During the Gulf War, the US Army launched 297 of these missiles, 282 of which reached their target. During Operation Desert Fox against Iraq in 1998, 370 Tomahawk missiles were fired, and another 200 were fired in Libya. Every year, the US Army, according to manufacturers, receives 440 of these cruise missiles.
Why did the air defense systems not work?
After the start of the Russian operation in Syria in October 2015, the Ministry of Defense deployed on the territory of the republic anti-aircraft missile systems(SAM) S-300 and S-400, in addition, the Bastion coast guard system and the Pantsir-S1 missile system covering the SAM were supplied. According to the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, missile systems are being sent to Syria for protection Russian aviation. Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov previously noted that the operating range of the S-300 and S-400 systems deployed in the region “could be a surprise for any unidentified flying objects.”
Experts interviewed by RBC disagree on why Russian troops didn't shoot down American missiles.
“The Russian military could not help but notice the American missiles,” says independent analyst Anton Lavrov, who regularly collaborates with the Ministry of Defense and the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. But the detection of cruise missiles does not guarantee that an attack will be repelled, the expert clarifies: “Each complex has a saturation limit ( maximum amount objects that the complex can hit with one round of ammunition. — RBC). Even if we fired all the S-300 missiles at the Tomahawks, we would not be able to repel their attack.”
Tomahawk cruise missiles, using the TERCOM terrain tracking system, can fly at an altitude of 100 m, notes military expert, reserve colonel Andrei Payusov. “The S-300 anti-aircraft missile divisions simply cannot see the missile at such a height,” the expert sums up. He argues that this requires separate mobile radar systems.
The short-range Strela-10 complexes could have responded to the use of such missiles, but they were not available at the Shayrat base, Payusov emphasizes. In addition, the S-300 and S-400 complexes, says Payusov, were “too far” from the Shayrat airfield, and even having received data on cruise missiles, they would not have been able to hit them at such a distance. According to technical specifications, the latest modifications of the S-300 and S-400 missiles can shoot down both ballistic and maneuvering high-altitude targets at a distance of 5 to 400 km. In case of cruise missiles of the Tomahawk type, the range of their destruction on the march is about 45 km for flat terrain, the military expert explained. The exact location of the launch of American missiles in the Mediterranean Sea is unknown.
Expert Alexander Khramchikhin disagrees with this. If the missiles had approached the Russian S-300 and S-400 systems within striking distance, they would have been shot down, the military analyst believes. “A rocket is not a plane; it has no pilot. Therefore, the downed missile could not become a reason for the escalation of the conflict,” the expert emphasizes. He also points out that the Russian military has Bastion coast guard systems at its disposal, which theoretically could hit American ships on approach. “But this is politically impossible, this is a fact of direct aggression, which would lead to grave consequences, a world war,” sums up Khramchikhin. “At the same time, surprisingly, Russia and Syria did not sign a mutual defense agreement,” the expert recalls.
According to Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis, the US military warned its Russian counterparts immediately before the strike. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov left without comment the journalists’ question about why Russian systems missile interception was not used.
Video: RBC
Prospects for expanding the operation
“Today I call on all civilized nations to join us in seeking to end the bloodshed in Syria and to end terrorism of all kinds and of all types,” US President after the cruise missile strike.
The actions of the American military have already been supported by representatives of Israel, Great Britain, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other countries. Iran, China and Russia condemned the US actions. Turkey, which together with Russia is the guarantor of the truce in Syria, according to a statement by US President Donald Trump, can support the American military operation in Syria “if one happens.”
On March 29, the Turkish army completed the large-scale operation “Euphrates Shield” in Syria. The operation, which lasted more than seven months, allowed the Turkish side and opposition groups to take control of more than 2 thousand square meters. km of territory and 230 settlements in northern Syria. From 4 thousand to 8 thousand Turkish military and up to 10 thousand fighters of rebel groups took part in the operation.
Another regional power that has repeatedly attacked Syrian government-controlled areas is Israel. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance 2016 report, the Israeli army could use 440 aircraft. In addition, Israel also has its own Delilah cruise missiles. Maximum range destruction of such missiles - up to 250 km. “The Israeli armed forces have previously attacked neighboring Syria with cruise missiles and combat drones,” Lavrov recalls.
Israeli strikes on Syrian territory are fully coordinated along the Jerusalem-Moscow line, says Zeev Hanin, a lecturer in the department of political science at Bar-Ilan University. In his opinion, Trump’s calls will not lead to an increase or decrease in the number of Israeli military strikes on Syrian territory. “Israel will continue to use weapons against terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, ad hoc, on occasion,” Hanin said.
United States would have led to a nuclear conflict, which did not happen only thanks to the composure of the Russian Supreme Commander-in-Chief, a corresponding member told Izvestia Russian Academy military sciences Sergei Sudakov. At the same time, Russian air defense systems are subordinate only to Russia and protect its military facilities, military expert Vladislav Shurygin noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
Hot war
The most important question that everyone is asking is why Russian air defenses did not shoot down all these missiles. The inhabitants believe that this should be done and thereby repel aggression. But, by and large, if we started shooting them down now, we might not wake up this morning. Because today what is called a “nuclear conflict” could happen, because it would be a clash of two nuclear powers on a third territory, says Sudakov.
Russian air defense systems are subordinate only to Russia and cover Russian military facilities; everything else is PR, which has no relation to reality, Shurygin notes.
Therefore, Israel and Turkey periodically bomb Syria - we cover our airfield and our facilities. I think that a political decision was also made not to shoot down these missiles, because ultimately this would be a conflict between the United States and Russia at the level of repelling air defense, the expert believes.
According to Sudakov, Donald Trump has approached a state called a “hot war.”
If not for the composure of the Russian Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the order to “shoot down the Tomahawks” would have been given. And this means the beginning of a war,” the expert notes.
The United States warned through diplomatic channels that they were going to strike, Russia also warned the Syrians, and they withdrew the train from the base and transferred equipment from there, Shurygin continues.
This does not indicate the strength of our position, but even with all these goodies, the aftertaste remains very bitter,” the expert concluded.
Attacks and parallels
About a week ago, one of the Syrian bases, on the territory of which the Russian Air Force was present, was struck by the Israeli Air Force, and there are parallels between these attacks, they have not yet been paid attention to, but they are significant, notes the leading expert of the Center current policy Victor Olevich.
Israel, a key US ally in the Middle East, takes a position on Syria that is close to the US, and these strikes that it carried out are partly reminiscent of today's history. They can be considered, if not as a kind of training, then as a test for reaction, and Russia in this case chose to leave the response for the future. Russia will definitely respond adequately, the expert explains.
If the American bombing of Syrian troops in the province of Deir ez-Zor in September 2016 put an end to the agreements that were reached in Switzerland to resolve the Syrian crisis, then today’s missile attack put an end to Moscow’s hopes for a quick normalization of relations with Washington, Olevich continues.
According to the political scientist, a number of personnel changes that preceded today's military aggression against Syria (for example, the removal of Michael Flynn, who took a moderate position on Syria), “show that Trump is incapable of standing up to the American establishment”: replacing key figures in his administration who did not suit the leadership of the democratic and Republican Party, the president is now taking steps that the establishment, as well as the intelligence agencies, are happy with.
Wrong move
Trump needs to take some steps to foreign policy, which would make him respected internally. I believe that the step he took was absolutely in vain. It was not his decision, but the decision of his advisers, and it was a big mistake. The number of times the United States has violated UN articles, invaded and destroyed the sovereignty of others cannot be counted. But what we see now is another aggression, which was carried out against an ally of two quite serious opponents - Russia and Iran, explains Sudakov from the Russian Academy of Military Sciences.
With such an act of aggression, the United States is throwing away the possibility of full-fledged negotiations even within the G20, where a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump was supposed to take place, the expert continues: instead of building normal relations with Russia, Trump overnight crossed out these relations, now the countries are not even become “sworn friends.”
This is a big blow to Russian-American relations, to what was beginning to take shape, and it is clear that there were hopes for the new president that relations with him would be better than with the previous one. In addition, this is a blow to the peace process in Syria, which is already proceeding with great difficulty. Now this is also under threat,” the political scientist agrees with Sudakov and Chief Editor edition of Iran Today Nikita Smagin.
According to the expert, now we need to look at the further reaction of the United States: if this is an isolated action, then this a big problem, but nevertheless the negotiation process can continue. If the United States intends to continue to carry out some strikes, this is a different story and the consequences could be even more serious, Smagin does not rule out.
Switch attention
Trump played out another scenario with this attack, Sergei Sudakov is sure.
The fact is that the situation in Mosul is now catastrophic - heavy losses, a huge number of casualties among the civilian population, and Trump was advised to distract the situation, including from Mosul, with this bombing, the expert notes.
The hypothesis that the strike was an attempt to divert attention from the situation in Mosul is quite workable, supported by Smagin.
I think that this factor almost certainly influenced the decision-making, but I do not think that it was the only one, it was one of the factors. When you need to distract attention, this is an additional incentive to carry out some kind of demonstration action, - the expert clarifies.
In any case, what happened threw away all relations from the point of view of world standards of law at the beginning of the twentieth century, Sudakov continues.
We see the return of the “world gendarme”, who imposes his will with the help of force, the political scientist concludes.
Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption Footage taken at the base shows burnt out hangars with planes in them.
The United States used 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike the Syrian Shayrat airbase. These precision-guided munitions can penetrate missile defense enemy is an expensive weapon: each missile costs the American budget about a million dollars.
Thus, the Americans decided to punish the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which they accuse of using chemical weapons against residents of the small village of Khan Sheikhoun, resulting in the death of more than 70 people, many of them children.
It is difficult to judge what damage was caused to the airbase - conflicting information is coming from Syrian sources on the ground, from official Damascus and from the Russian military.
However, it can be assumed that the missiles destroyed several aircraft, warehouses and other buildings at the airfield.
How did this happen?
On the night of April 7, the US Navy destroyers "Ross" and "Porter" from the waters Mediterranean Sea fired 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Syrian airbase of Shayrat in Homs province.
The airbase belonged to Syrian government forces, but the planes Russian Air Force They used it as a “jump airfield” during combat missions.
Information about casualties of Russian military personnel or damage to Russian military property was not officially reported.
The United States warned Russia about the upcoming strike, and perhaps if there were Russian specialists, then they managed to evacuate. A Pentagon spokesman said that during the planning of the operation, the US military did everything to avoid the deaths of Russian and Syrian troops.
The US airstrike killed 10 soldiers, the Syrian army said. The Syrian state news agency SANA reports the deaths of nine civilians, including four children. According to the agency, the deceased lived in a village near the airbase. Many houses in the base area were seriously damaged.
On Friday morning, after the attack on the airfield, it became known that Russia was suspending the memorandum with the United States on preventing incidents and ensuring the safety of aviation flights during the operation in Syria.
Image caption Cruise missile "Tomahawk"It was this mechanism that the Americans used to warn about shelling of a base where Russians could be located. Communication channels remain between the two countries, but this one, closed after the shelling, was created specifically for the rapid exchange of operational information.
Is there a missile defense system in Syria?
Russian missile defense systems S-200, S-300, S-400 and Buk-M2 are deployed at the Khmeimim airbase in Syrian Latakia. The main task of these complexes is air cover of Russian military installations.
In addition, they are periodically located near the coast guided missile cruisers"Moskva" and "Varyag", which are also equipped with the naval version of the S-300 - the Fort air defense system, although now these ships are not there, judging by open sources.
Finally, the air base also houses short-range systems that protect, among other things, long-range air defense systems, including from cruise missiles.
Syrian troops air defense equipped with long-range S-200VE complexes, medium-sized Buk-M2E, as well as various short-range systems.
Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption The strike was carried out by destroyers stationed in the Mediterranean SeaThe S-200VE systems were deployed in mid-March to intercept Israeli fighters that were carrying out strikes in Syria, but not a single missile hit the target. One interceptor missile.
Why weren't the Tomahawks shot down?
Russian complexes located in Latakia are capable of fighting cruise missiles, including the Tomahawk class, but only those that are heading towards an object in their immediate vicinity.
The Shayrat airfield is located at a great distance from Latakia (about 100 kilometers), and cruise missiles flying at low altitude are simply impossible to track with radar.
Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption Shayrat Air Base in April 2017The interception was also complicated by the short approach time of the missiles, as well as their large number - a total of 59 Tomahawks were fired.
The airbase itself, apparently, was not covered from the air by systems capable of shooting down cruise missiles.
On Friday afternoon, a representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, said that “in the near future, a set of measures will be implemented to strengthen and increase the effectiveness of the air defense system of the Syrian armed forces in order to cover the most sensitive objects of the Syrian infrastructure.”
He did not say which complexes would be deployed. It is also unknown which facilities Russia will strengthen the defense of.
What is the damage?
Information about the damage to the air base is very contradictory.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the strike destroyed a warehouse of material and technical equipment. learning Campus, a canteen, six Mig-23 aircraft located in repair hangars, as well as a radar station.
Previously, Russian state media reported that nine aircraft were destroyed in the airstrike. Syrian journalist Thabet Salem told the BBC, citing activists in northern Syria, that 14 aircraft were destroyed, as well as runways and warehouses.
Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption The US announced that the strike on the air base was retaliation for the use of chemical weapons by SyriaFinally, a short time after the strike, the Syrian military reported that the base had suffered "severe damage."
Correspondent of the Russian state TV channel Vesti 24 Evgeny Poddubny, who is in Syria, visited the base on the morning of April 7.
The footage he shot showed damaged hangars, some of which were empty of aircraft, as well as several burnt-out fighter jets.
In one of the frames, the silhouette of a dilapidated aircraft is clearly visible, and it does not look like the MiG-23 reported Russian ministry defense The aircraft is more similar to the Su-22 heavy strike fighter.
Such aircraft are in service with the Syrian Air Force, and footage taken by Poddubny shows the same undamaged fighters at the same airfield.
What remains of Syrian aviation?
It is very difficult to judge how serious this blow is for the Syrian Air Force. Firstly, it is not known exactly how many and which fighters were destroyed, and secondly, exact data on how many aircraft are in the Air Force as of April 2017 is also not publicly available. Finally, there is even less information about how many aircraft are in airworthy condition.
The website globalsecurity.org writes that in 2017 the Syrian Air Force had strike fighters of the following modifications: 53-70 MiG-21 units; 30-41 - MiG-23; 20 - MiG-29; 36-42 - Su-22; 11-20 - Su-24 (the latter are front-line bombers). In addition, according to the same source, Bashar al-Assad’s troops also have fighters for air combat: 20-30 - MiG-29; 2 - MiG-25; 39-50 - MiG-23.
Thus, even if we take the largest loss figure of 14 aircraft, then even in this case, the combat effectiveness of the Air Force after the attack by cruise missiles did not decrease critically.
In addition, the Russian aviation group, which was reduced in the spring of 2016, continues to operate in Syria. According to last year's data, it included at least a Su-24 squadron, as well as Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters and helicopters.
How much did the airstrike cost the US?
The cost of Tomahawk cruise missiles varies depending on how advanced the ammunition is.
Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption The Russian aviation group remains in Syria, albeit in a reduced compositionIt is unknown what kind of missiles the destroyers fired on Friday morning, and therefore, according to open sources, the cost of a salvo of 59 missiles could range from $30 million to $100 million.
The most approximate cost of the MiG-23 and Su-22 fighters ranges from one to three million dollars.
Military observer Mikhail Khodarenok, in an article for the publication Gazeta.Ru, generally confirmed the opinion of his colleagues, explaining that with regard to Tomahawk-type cruise missiles, the S-400 is limited to a radius of about 25 km, and to cover the entire government territory will require the deployment of a large-scale group Air defense with several divisions.
The distance from Khmeimim, where only one division of the S-400 air defense system is deployed, to the Shayrat airbase is about 200 km, Khodarenok argues. This is practically the far limit of the destruction zone of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. To hit a target at such a range, its height must be at least 8-9 km. If the target height is less, radar complex The S-400 and the multifunctional radar of the anti-aircraft missile division simply will not see the target. This is due to the curvature earth's surface, explains the expert.
Approximately the same situation arises with the S-300V air defense system deployed in Tartus, he explains. From Tartus to Shayrat air base is about 100 km. At such a distance and due to the terrain, anti-aircraft missile system The S-300V will see targets at an altitude of only 6-7 km or more. And this is also explained by the same curvature of the earth’s surface and the heterogeneity of the terrain.
“Tomohawk cruise missiles fly at an altitude of 50-60 meters,” explained Colonel-General of Aviation Igor Maltsev, former chief of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces, to Gazeta.Ru.
The far limit of the detection zone for targets of this type is 24-26 km in moderately rough terrain.
Immediately after detection of a cruise missile, it is necessary to open fire with a burst of at least two anti-aircraft guns guided missiles(SAM). Otherwise, it will simply leave the relatively small affected area in a matter of seconds. In this case, the meeting of the missile defense system with the Tomahawk will occur at a distance of 12-14 km.
“That is, by and large, the capabilities of firing cruise missiles are extremely limited in range,” emphasizes Igor Maltsev.
According to the military leader, the anti-aircraft missile divisions and batteries stationed in Khmeimim and Tartus could not, even theoretically, “reach” American cruise missiles.
According to Igor Maltsev, in order to effectively protect the Shayrat air base from missile attacks, at least 4-5 S-400 anti-aircraft missile divisions must be deployed in the area of the air base. In addition to this grouping, it is necessary to create a radar reconnaissance system to provide the necessary detection depth for cruise missiles. At a minimum, this will require a radio technical regiment consisting of several battalions and radar companies. This grouping must be tested in exercises and the effectiveness of the created fire system must be clarified.
Material prepared
The American brazen attack on a Syrian air base occupied the public for the whole day with the question: what were our air defense systems doing there? Couldn't they have shot down American tomahawks? Is it not true what we were told about the completely closed sky of Syria? Or do we abandon - “leave” - our ally?
No, it’s all true, answered one of the Constantinople sources related to international military relations. The S-400 and S-300PMU1 air defense systems, currently located in Syria, are capable of very well thinning out even such a large swarm of missiles as the one launched by the Americans - 59 products. Although the air defense specialists may have their own reasons, the interlocutor added, because it is irrational to spend expensive 9M96E missiles on tomahawks. One installation has 4 missiles, in a division there are 8 installations - so count how many they would hit targets and have time to fire a second salvo if the Tomahawk has a speed of 880 km/h, and the distance from the coast to the base is a little more than 100 km.
For this kind of purpose, it is not without reason that the divisions in Syria were given close-cover Pantsir S1 installations with missile and cannon weapons. And, in addition, the complex has also been deployed electronic warfare"Krasukha-4". This is the main means of combating cruise missiles - because with their high speed and low altitude of movement, the most short-term failure of the electronics is enough, as it is already in the ground or far away from the target.
But everything works, of course, as a whole, the military diplomat explained, making the reservation that he owns only the most general information on the operation of air defense systems. And, of course, he added, no one would spare any missiles for the defense of the base.
But this is where the dog is buried. For the sake of defending your base. In this case, we were talking about a Syrian Air Force base. And in order to protect it, we would have to, in the opinion of the public, shoot down American missiles. Who gave us this right?
"The thing is,- the interlocutor explained on condition of anonymity in exchange for frankness, - that we have no treaty of alliance with Syria that would oblige us to defend the Syrian skies as well as our own. We are not allies with Syria. Maybe in vain, although I personally think it’s right. Because we cannot fully achieve a union with such a country. And to fit into her conflicts for her - excuse me.".
The military diplomat recalled that we once had very close relations with Egypt - in the 1960-1970s. We, too, were not full-fledged allies, but it was our anti-aircraft gunners on our installations that protected the skies of Egypt from the Israelis. In both wars - in 1967 and 1973. And our guys died there, even though they shot down Israeli planes. How did the Egyptians repay us? "They kicked me in the ass,- the diplomat expressed himself undiplomatically. - As soon as the Americans beckoned them with their finger."
“Of course, the situation is different now, but from the point of view of international law, we are not a party to the Syrian-American conflict. Therefore, our intervention on the side of Syria by attacking American targets would formally mean our entry into a war with the United States. Do we need it? "- a specialist in military law asked a rhetorical question.
For the same reason - or, perhaps, for a complex of them, including political ones, but this can be ignored for now - the Americans warned us that a blow would be struck at such and such coordinates and we earnestly ask you to evacuate your military and civilian personnel from there. Because now we will punish the Syrians a little, but we have no questions for you.
That, in fact, is all, the lawyer emphasized. We are not at war with the Americans, they are not at war with us. And, let's hope, we won't fight further.
And if the Syrians somehow knocked out 61% of the launched tomahawks, then we are very happy for them.
