Connecting the EAEU and the Belt and Road Initiative: a view from China. The EEU and the SCO are uniting against the US How does Russia as a whole assess China’s recently adopted “one belt and one road” policy? Is it compatible with the Eurasian Union, which we strive to create?

The first Russian-Chinese construction forum, held on Wednesday, March 2, in Moscow, brought news related not only to construction and the development of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. As the first deputy minister said economic development Alexey Likhachev, Eurasian countries economic union(EAEU) and Shanghai organization cooperation (SCO) are preparing an agreement on an economic continental partnership, which also includes a free trade zone.

“In fact, we will now be preparing approaches to some kind of economic continental partnership, a comprehensive agreement within the SCO. Moreover, we understand that today the SCO outlines countries such as, of course, China and Russia, the countries of Central Asia, but also involves in this work, on the one hand, Armenia and Belarus, which are members of the EurAsEC, on the other hand, India and Pakistan, which have begun a difficult, but in the future, I think, successful path of joining the Shanghai organization,” Likhachev explained. The Deputy Minister especially emphasized that about half of the world's population will become parties to this agreement.

The initiative of the SCO and the EAEU is not only a response to the largest US economic projects - the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which are clearly directed against China and Russia. This is also a natural stage in the development of cooperation in the Eurasian space. It is no coincidence that three organizations actually participated in the summit in Ufa on July 8-10, 2015 - the SCO, BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Union.

The trade agreement between the SCO and the EAEU could indeed become the most ambitious in the world. Participating countries The SCO is Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Iran may join. The total territory of the SCO countries is 60% of the territory of Eurasia, the total population is 3 billion 40 million people. Members of the EAEU are the Russian Federation, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and a candidate for accession is Tajikistan. Total population union - 183 million people, the territory is the first in the world, and the GDP is the fifth in the world.

The agreement is scheduled to be discussed by the economic ministers of the SCO countries on March 17, and the final point in its creation will be reached at the meeting of the heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on October 22, 2016 in Tashkent. While there are no details of the future agreement, Alexey Likhachev has only outlined its outlines. According to the official, there are at least three major components: freedom of movement of goods, promotion of trade turnover, issues of capital movement, investment, a comfortable environment for increasing the share in national currencies and preferential access to the Russian services market.

“We will carry out a huge amount of work both within the framework of the Eurasian Union and within the framework of bilateral contacts between the People’s Republic of China and Russia,” Likhachev said, adding that “this will be broader than the FTA.” Previously, Beijing advocated the creation of a free trade zone (FTA) within the SCO.

It is obvious that the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China will be the informal leaders of the partnership, and its success largely depends on how Russian-Chinese bilateral relations will be built and whether the countries will find an optimal balance of interests.

On May 17, 2018, during the economic forum in Astana, an agreement was signed between the People's Republic of China and the Eurasian Economic Union on economic and trade cooperation. This document, according to the Chinese side, is important milestone in promoting the People's Republic of China's "One Belt - One Road" initiative. The process of ratifying the treaty may drag on for many months, but China is in no hurry: cooperation with the EAEU is not the only way for Beijing to engage in trade and economic interaction with Eurasian states.

The volume of the agreement was 13 chapters. The document defines the activities of the PRC and the EAEU within the framework of customs cooperation and trade facilitation, intellectual property rights, establishes the basis for departmental cooperation and public procurement, and also establishes rules for conducting electronic commerce, and considers issues related to competition in markets.

The parties agreed to further simplify customs clearance procedures and reduce associated costs when conducting trade.

It is expected to create favorable conditions for industrial development, promote the deepening economic relations The PRC and the EAEU, as well as its member states within the framework of bilateral relations with the PRC.

The path to an agreement began in May 2015. Since then, five rounds of negotiations, three working group meetings, and two ministerial consultations have taken place. The agreement opens a new stage in relations between China and the EAEU, as well as cooperation within the framework of the EAEU alignment policy and the Belt and Road initiative.

China emphasizes that, despite the absence of tariff reductions under the agreement, it is based on WTO rules and regulations. This view allows us to talk about two aspects of the developing trade and economic interaction between China and the EAEU. On the one hand, trade and economic relations between China and the EAEU must be within the framework of the rules and regulations of the WTO, which indicates the absence of China’s desire to create a parallel global trade and economic system based on relations with the EAEU. On the other hand, China is making an attempt to seize primacy in the WTO from Western countries and to emphasize its commitment to the established rules of trade and economic relations in the world.

It should be noted that China is in no hurry to evaluate the agreement on trade and economic cooperation with the EAEU. The process of ratification of the agreement in all member countries of the EAEU may last more than six months, which means that the possibility of a real assessment of the document and its significance for the parties will not open until 2019.

In China they talk about the elitist nature of the agreement. It was noted that the entire period of interaction between the EAEU and the PRC in matters of trade and economic relations, as well as in matters of integration of the EAEU and the Belt and Road initiative, the leaders of states played the first fiddle. As a result, thanks to the significant personal support of the Chairman of the People's Republic of China and the leaders of the EAEU member countries, it became possible to complete negotiations on the agreement.

The document is considered as part of China’s policy within the framework of relations with countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative. The agreement is called an important milestone in the construction and development of the Chinese initiative. Listing aspects of the agreement affecting cooperation in the field of trade, intellectual property, government procurement and e-commerce, it is emphasized that the integration of the EAEU and China, more broadly, the Belt and Road Initiative, allows Chinese enterprises to further develop their export potential in relation to member countries EAEU.

China sees the agreement on trade and economic cooperation not only as a document organizing a system of multilateral cooperation between the EAEU countries and the PRC, but also as the basis for the further development of trade and economic relations with them. The agreement between the EAEU and the PRC was mentioned in joint statements with Russia and Kazakhstan on the eve of the SCO summit.

Speaking about bilateral cooperation of the PRC using the example of Russia, the agreement has not yet been noted as a breakthrough or primary document. On the contrary, the document is named among the routine practices of bilateral interaction, which, despite significant progress, require additional efforts and consolidation of results.

Speaking about the view of the Chinese press and think tanks on the possibilities of trade and economic interaction in Eurasia, the first place comes not from the EAEU, but from the SCO, which is gradually gaining more and more importance within the framework of Chinese foreign economic strategy.

Of interest is the material on promoting the deepening of economic cooperation in the SCO, published on the eve of the organization’s summit in Qingdao.

The goal of developing economic interaction in the SCO is to promote regional simplification of trade procedures and liberalization of institutional mechanisms.

The importance of the Belt and Road initiative for the development of the SCO and the need to strive for the creation of an SCO FTA were emphasized. Achieving this result is possible through reforming the commercial system of countries, strengthening the legal structure, as well as jointly fighting corruption and moving towards economic interaction. The reachability of the SCO FTA can be seen through the synergy between the organization and the Chinese initiative.

The SCO is also seen as the basis of a regional “community of common destiny.” The SCO represents a new type of international relations, which is based on respect, fairness and mutual benefit. A new type of international political and economic relations in the SCO was formed by the “Shanghai Spirit”, which is based on trust, mutual benefit, equality, respect for different civilizations and the desire for common development.

The SCO is promoting economic cooperation and forming a community of economic interests. Thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative, the region's infrastructure has been improved, which affects the development of trade among member countries of the organization.

The development of humanitarian cooperation was emphasized. Events are being held to cultural exchange and exchange in the field of education and science. Thanks to this, the social basis for the development of a society sharing a “common destiny” is formed.

The interaction between China and the EAEU depends on many factors, both domestic policy, and in international relations. The EAEU is not the only platform considered by the PRC as the basis for economic interaction with post-Soviet Eurasia.

There are noticeable active attempts to put the economic agenda at the forefront within the SCO. The main nuance is that all possible mechanisms of interaction are in the context of the development of the Belt and Road initiative, which, according to the PRC, is beginning to serve as a measure of economic integration in Eurasia.

The emergence of the Silk Road Economic Belt project has caused a lot of controversy about whether Russia and China will be able to harmonize their integration and infrastructure projects in Central Asia. On how Chinese initiatives relate to Russian politics in the region, a correspondent for a Chinese magazineInternationalHeraldLeadertold acting director of the Institute Far East RAS, RIAC expert Sergei Luzyanin.

How does Russia generally assess China’s recently adopted “One Belt, One Road” policy? Is it compatible with the Eurasian Union, which Russian President Vladimir Putin is striving to create?

It is obvious that, in addition to possible risks, the creation of the Silk Road Economic Belt will serve as a constructive economic incentive for Russia. In particular, there will be a need to implement active investment, trade and economic policies for the participating groups, including, in particular, the expansion of railway and highway construction - examples of such activities are the reconstruction of the Moscow-Kazan railway line and the construction of a high-speed railway between Moscow and Beijing. In the future, as Beijing plans, the unified transport network will create a transport corridor connecting the Asia-Pacific region with countries Western Europe. Such a network will connect 18 Asian and European countries, covering a total of 50 million square kilometers with a population of 3 billion people. Over the past 10 years, the annual growth of China's trade with countries along the Belt has been about 19%, and China's trade turnover with these countries in 2014 reached more than 600 billion US dollars.

The idea of ​​the Belt, put forward by Chairman Xi Jinping, was initially perceived quite cautiously in Russia and a number of other countries of the Customs Union that existed at that time. A number of Russian experts even argued that this project represents the PRC’s reaction to the slow pace of development of the SCO and that the Silk Road is an alternative option for accelerating development for Central Asia and neighboring regions.

As has now become obvious, the situation is not so critical. Undoubtedly, Xi Jinping's project is extremely ambitious, designed for the long term and reflects the pace of growth of China's influence and the nature of this growth as a new economic power. In the context of the Great Silk Road project, China’s tasks in the Eurasian space are quite clearly visible. On the other hand, it is equally obvious that this project does not interfere and is not intended to interfere with the implementation of the other two plans - the development of the SCO, within which China and Russia continue to play a central role, and the Eurasian Economic Union. At the moment, Chinese projects (Economic Belt and Silk Road) seem to be an important strategic initiative of the country's leadership, which, however, has not received institutionalization.

Thus, in the context of these projects, Russia is not at all a passive observer from the point of view of the multilateral or bilateral format of cooperation with the PRC. While China is actively promoting its project, Russia - if we talk about the SCO format - is interested in finding (political and expert) ways and opportunities for developing interaction or rapprochement between the SCO and the Silk Road project. Russia's interest in developing interaction between the SCO both with the Eurasian Economic Union and with the Silk Road project is visible quite clearly. However, there are a number of options/scenarios that can be implemented in this process: ( a) development of integration/rapprochement along the “Northern Route” (SCO - EAEU) with the strengthening of the Eurasian Development Bank by attracting Chinese resources - or (b) along the “Southern Route” (SCO - Silk Road), which, however, seems to be more late in terms of possible periods and implementation possibilities. At the same time, the parallel development of all three projects cannot be ruled out.

How will Russia build its relations with the five Central Asian countries if they decide to cooperate with China within the framework of the “one belt, one road” concept?

The strategy chosen by China to implement the “one belt, one road” policy will not create a conflict of interests between Russia and China in Central Asia. Some Western experts believe that all Central Asian countries will join the Chinese Silk Road project and forget about Russia and its projects altogether. However, this is not the case: there is a close connection between China, Russia and the countries of Central Asia due to their membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The only state in Central Asia that is not a member of the SCO, Turkmenistan, does not play an important political role in the region. Thus, we see the possibility of multilateral cooperation within the framework of the Chinese Economic Belt and the SCO, their rapprochement, as well as active participation Central Asian countries in general cooperation in the field of economics and transport.

Recently, experts have begun to talk more often about the formation of new centers of a multipolar world. The new pole of growth, as well as the basis for integration today, are Russia, the countries of Central Asia, China, and the countries of South Asia. It should be noted that the West was very skeptical about education and the BRICS countries. There was an opinion that new integration associations were not viable. We can say that the Eurasian Economic Union is already being taken more seriously. However, this attitude is manifested in criticism of integration, which spiteful critics associate with “Putin’s imperial ambitions,” despite the fact that the initiator of the unification was Nursultan Nazarbayev. At the same time, the integration of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus into, as well as the established and BRICS countries are already competitive on the world stage.

According to many rating agencies, the economies of the BRICS countries will exceed those of the G7 by 2050. This is due to the fact that BRICS has several noticeable advantages over Western countries. Firstly, the countries that are integrated into the organization are rich natural resources, the production of which is aimed, among other things, at export, serving as the economic basis on which other sectors of the economy are built. At the same time, China and India have significant production resources, complementing BRICS. The total population of the organization is 43% of the total world population, which implies the availability of cheap labor resources. It is assumed that Russia and Brazil will act as global suppliers of resources, and China and India will be large production sites.

If the BRICS countries are increasing political cooperation, being in essence a political bloc, then the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has an economic orientation. It can be said that world powers today are waging an unspoken struggle for a sphere of influence in the countries of Central Asia. However, this region has already made its choice towards large regional players - Russia and China. By the way, the recent gas contract between them confirmed the understanding that the countries are increasing cooperation. The countries of Central Asia will have to perform on par with China and Russia. Moreover, their economies are quite comparable. The Central Asian region is home to production sites; the countries are rich in raw materials and also have great labor potential. Russia and China (as well as India if they join) are already acting as a powerful catalyst for the economies of the Central Asian countries. Since its inception, experts have noted the growth of the investment component in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Additionally, it acts as a guarantor of stability and security in the countries of the Central Asian region. Despite the fact that there are radical organizations in the region (in Afghanistan), the forecast for stabilizing the situation in the region is optimistic. A secure environment is beneficial both to the major players in the region, which are closing in on each other (Russia, India, China), and to the Central Asian countries themselves, since political stability leads to economic growth and development of industrial production.

The youngest association in the region is. This is a closer organization, which implies tight integration of the economies of the countries. The prospects in the region are more than impressive. has already proven that integration of neighboring countries is beneficial from an economic point of view. Close integration into a single market will contribute to the fact that in large alliances Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus (as well as potential new members - Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) will act as one (single) player. For example, in the BRICS system, the countries of the Eurasian Union are able to provide the market with all mineral resources, as well as the workforce. At the same time, Kazakhstan and Belarus are able to act within the market, ensuring self-sufficiency of the region, due to the fact that the integration of economies is very strong. This means that countries are able to act as a single player on the world stage, and, at the same time, provide the domestic market with the widest range of domestic products. That is, it can be a supplier of resources, but not a raw material appendage.

Thus, existing integration associations function in a single manner, complementing each other. Different directions and forms of integration contribute to strengthening the influence of states on the world stage. This is confirmed by the actions of the West, which is already wary of the countries of Central Asia, trying to increase its presence in the region. However, both the countries of the Central Asian region, and Russia and China today are aimed at strengthening regional integration. We can say that this is the only way to bring the region to a leading global position in economic and political aspects.

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40% of the world's population lives in the countries that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The two alliances are well positioned to create a new platform for economic cooperation. The integration of the EAEU and the SCO is beneficial, first of all, to the countries of Central Asia. This will help develop the economy and improve security. It's no secret: stability is the basis for successful economic cooperation. These two organizations, despite a number of contradictions, can successfully complement each other. Cooperation within the EAEU is focused primarily on issues of economic interaction. As for the SCO, while proclaiming its fundamental commandment - “strengthening security in the region, promoting the development of the potential of good neighborliness, unity and cooperation between states and their peoples”, it also declares the creation of mechanisms for economic cooperation. To assess the possibility of connecting two organizations, it is necessary to recall the goals and objectives of each of them. Participants in the first summit that created the Shanghai Five (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) in 1996 signed an agreement to strengthen confidence in military field in the field of border protection. A year later, Uzbekistan joined the SCO, and the format of the organization became the “six”. Russia and the young sovereigns of Central Asia no longer imagined military threat for China. All Soviet military garrisons were withdrawn from the Central Asian region. But at the same time, the economic balance was disrupted, including the factor of deindustrialization, since many enterprises were “sharpened” to serve the Soviet military system. Having completed its task of ensuring stability along the perimeter of the borders of the former Soviet republics and China, the organization turned to the economic component. There were some contradictions: Beijing insisted on the creation of the SCO Development Bank, while Moscow proposed settling on the SCO Development Fund in order to provide financial support for joint projects within the organization. The conflict was that China has a large amount of cash, and the SCO Bank would automatically become a Chinese instrument. Russia insisted on maintaining balance within the SCO. Today, the SCO has entered a new phase of its institutional development as the “Shanghai Eight” - in the summer of this year. India and Pakistan became full members of the Organization. If we talk about the EAEU, then this is a project in which, at the level of all official documents solely based on economic integration. In May 2014, the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus signed the EAEU agreement on the basis of the Customs Union. Later, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joined the integration association. Next up is Tajikistan. The EAEU was conceived as a confederation sovereign states with a single political, economic, military and customs space. In this case, of course, we are not talking about somehow influencing the political sovereignty of the organization’s member countries, their currency and tax regimes. The EAEU has clearly defined development paths as a subject international law is a Free Trade Zone (FTA). The direction is quite effective and efficient. The EAEU concludes FTA agreements with specific countries. Recently, the main parameters of the FTA were agreed upon with China. Indian delegations have repeatedly taken part in EAEU meetings. About 50 countries around the world are showing interest in the FTA. In fact, for cooperation within the EAEU-FTA, it is enough to have bilateral relations: EAEU-China, EAEU-India, etc. This is the best option because all participants have different economies, different structure export-import trade relations. But it is difficult to imagine an FTA agreement within the framework of the EAEU-SCO organizations, since the interests of the countries belonging to these organizations are different. And most importantly, the SCO does not have legal personality within the framework of international law, i.e. No one can sign agreements on behalf of the SCO, while the EAEU has such a right. However, China proposed creating a regional FTA on the SCO platform. To fully implement its plans, Beijing has proposed the concept of “One Belt, One Road” as part of its “Silk Road Economic Belt” strategy. In May 2017, a presentation of this project took place in Beijing, where issues of allocating investments for the construction of industrial enterprises, oil and gas and transport infrastructure, which will connect the PRC with the countries of the Central Asian region, the European Union and Africa, were discussed. China, in an effort to demonstrate the seriousness of its commitment, has guaranteed $124 billion in investment. Kyrgyzstan has secured China's consent to build a railway that will connect the railway systems of the two countries with access to Uzbekistan. The latter concluded agreements with China for $23 billion. As part of the program, Tajikistan plans to increase trade turnover with China to $3 billion by 2020. Experts believe that by interacting with Central Asia Through the SREB and SCO, China is building long-term partnerships with each country in the region separately due to unresolved intraregional problems. Beijing's consideration of such features is valued in the region and suits the parties. It is also expected that the search for specific mechanisms for linking the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative and the EAEU will be intensified. According to the head of the department economic theory IMEMO im. E.M. Primakov RAS Sergei Afontsev, the development of a full-fledged interface between the Chinese initiative and the EAEU is hampered by several factors. The first is the interpretation of the BRI project as primarily an infrastructure project. Secondly, large projects with the participation of state companies at the level of interstate discussions are always in the foreground. These are projects that require billions of dollars in investments and decisions at the level of political leadership of countries. According to Afontsev, business circles are no less capable of identifying possible points of convergence. The potential for cooperation in the high-tech sphere remains unclaimed. “This is a real opportunity for the Russian side to ensure a solution to the priority task of increasing the share of non-resource products in exports, for the Chinese side to further expand its export potential through the production of fundamentally new goods, customized for specific markets of the EAEU and EAEU partner countries. According to the economist, this direction is especially promising in light of the opportunities that are currently opening up due to the fact that the EAEU is preparing a number of FTA agreements with third countries. The potential gain, according to expert Kubat Rakhimov, may be in building equal relations on the platform of the SCO Bank or the SCO Foundation. “The SCO Bank must be a multilateral investor. It would be interesting. Leveling the balance of geopolitical interests within the SCO due to the emergence of India and Pakistan,” Rakhimov believes. In his opinion, the SCO is gaining a new connection with the economic project of the EAEU.”