Must retreat. It is being replaced by a diametrically opposite phenomenon - La Niña. And if the first phenomenon can be translated from Spanish as “child” or “boy,” then La Niña means “girl.” Scientists hope that the phenomenon will help somewhat balance the climate in both hemispheres, lowering the average annual temperature, which is now rapidly rising.

What are El Nino and La Nina

El Niño and La Niña are warm and cold currents or characteristic of the equatorial zone Pacific Ocean opposing extremes of water temperature and atmospheric pressure that last for about six months.

Phenomenon El Niño consists of a sharp increase in temperature (by 5-9 degrees) of the surface layer of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean over an area of ​​about 10 million square meters. km.

La Niña- the opposite of El Niño - manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean.

Together they constitute the so-called Southern Oscillation.

How does El Niño form? Near the Pacific coast South America the cold Peruvian current operates, which arises due to the trade winds. About once every 5-10 years, the trade winds weaken for 1-6 months. As a result, the cold current stops its “work”, and warm waters shift to the shores of South America. This phenomenon is called El Niño. El Niño energy can lead to disturbances in the entire atmosphere of the Earth, provokes environmental disasters, the phenomenon is involved in numerous weather anomalies in the tropics, which often lead to material losses and even human casualties.

What will La Niña bring to the planet?

Just like El Niño, La Niña appears with a certain cyclicity from 2 to 7 years and lasts from 9 months to a year. Residents of the Northern Hemisphere are threatened with a decrease in the phenomenon winter temperature by 1-2 degrees, which in current conditions is not so bad. Considering that the Earth has shifted, and now spring comes 10 years earlier than 40 years ago.

It should also be noted that El Niño and La Niña do not necessarily have to succeed each other - there can often be several “neutral” years between them.

But don't expect La Niña to come quickly. Judging by observations, this year will be under the rule of El Niño, as evidenced by monthly data on both a planetary and local scale. “Girl” will begin to bear fruit no earlier than 2017.

The natural phenomenon El Niño, which took place in 1997-1998, had no equal in scale in the entire history of observations. What is this mysterious phenomenon that has caused so much noise and attracted close attention from the media?

In scientific terms, El Niño is a complex of interdependent changes in thermobaric and chemical parameters of the ocean and atmosphere, taking on the character of natural disasters. According to reference literature, it is a warm current that sometimes occurs for unknown reasons off the coast of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Translated from Spanish, "El Niño" means "baby". Peruvian fishermen gave it this name because warming waters and associated mass fish kills usually occur at the end of December and coincide with Christmas. Our magazine already wrote about this phenomenon in No. 1 in 1993, but since that time researchers have accumulated a lot of new information.

NORMAL SITUATION

To understand the anomalous nature of the phenomenon, let us first consider the usual (standard) climate situation off the South American coast of the Pacific Ocean. It is quite peculiar and is determined by the Peruvian Current, which carries cold waters from Antarctica along the western coast of South America to the Galapagos Islands lying on the equator. Usually the trade winds blowing here from the Atlantic, crossing the high-mountain barrier of the Andes, leave moisture on their eastern slopes. And therefore the western coast of South America is a dry rocky desert, where rain is extremely rare - sometimes it does not fall for years. When the trade winds collect so much moisture that they carry it to the western shores of the Pacific Ocean, they form here the predominant westerly direction of surface currents, causing a surge of water off the coast. It is unloaded by the counter-trade Cromwell Current in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which covers a 400-kilometer strip here and, at depths of 50-300 m, transports huge masses of water back to the east.

The attention of specialists is attracted by the colossal biological productivity of coastal Peruvian-Chilean waters. Here, in a small space, constituting a fraction of a percent of the entire water area of ​​the World Ocean, the annual production of fish (mainly anchovy) exceeds 20% of the global total. Its abundance attracts huge flocks of fish-eating birds - cormorants, gannets, pelicans. And in areas where they accumulate, colossal masses of guano (bird droppings) - a valuable nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer - are concentrated; its deposits, ranging in thickness from 50 to 100 m, became the object of industrial development and export.

CATASTROPHE

During El Niño years, the situation changes dramatically. First, the water temperature rises by several degrees and begins mass death or the departure of fish from this water area, and as a result, birds disappear. Then, in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, atmospheric pressure drops, clouds appear above it, trade winds subside, and air flows over the entire equatorial zone of the ocean change direction. Now they are moving from west to east, carrying moisture from the Pacific region and dumping it on the Peruvian-Chilean coast.

Events are developing especially catastrophically at the foot of the Andes, which now block the path of the western winds and receive all their moisture onto their slopes. As a result, floods, mudflows, and floods are raging in a narrow strip of rocky coastal deserts on the western coast (at the same time, the territories of the Western Pacific region are suffering from terrible drought: they are burning rainforests in Indonesia, New Guinea, crop yields in Australia are falling sharply). To top it all off, so-called “red tides” are developing from the Chilean coast to California, caused by the rapid growth of microscopic algae.

So, the chain of catastrophic events begins with a noticeable warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which has recently been successfully used to predict El Niño. A network of buoy stations has been installed in this water area; with their help, the temperature of ocean water is constantly measured, and the data obtained is promptly transmitted via satellites to research centers. As a result, it was possible to warn in advance about the onset of the most powerful El Niño known to date - in 1997-98.

At the same time, the reason for the heating of ocean water, and therefore the occurrence of El Niño itself, is still not completely clear. Oceanographers explain the appearance of warm water south of the equator by a change in the direction of the prevailing winds, while meteorologists consider the change in winds to be a consequence of heating the water. Thus, a kind of vicious circle is created.

To get closer to understanding the genesis of El Niño, let us pay attention to a number of circumstances that are usually overlooked by climate specialists.

EL NINO DEGASION SCENARIO

For geologists, the following fact is absolutely obvious: El Niño is developing over one of the most geologically active areas of the world rift system - the East Pacific Rise, where maximum speed spreading (spreading of the ocean floor) reaches 12-15 cm/year. In the axial zone of this underwater ridge, a very high heat flow from the bowels of the earth is noted, manifestations of modern basaltic volcanism are known here, thermal water outlets and traces of the intensive process of modern ore formation in the form of numerous black and white “smokers” were discovered.

In the water area between 20 and 35 south. w. Nine hydrogen jets were recorded at the bottom - the release of this gas from the bowels of the earth. In 1994, an international expedition discovered the world's most powerful hydrothermal system here. In its gas emanations, the 3 He/4 He isotope ratios turned out to be abnormally high, which means that the source of degassing is located at great depths.

A similar situation is typical for other “hot spots” on the planet - Iceland, Hawaii, and the Red Sea. There, at the bottom there are powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing and above them, most often in the Northern Hemisphere, the ozone layer is destroyed
, which gives grounds to apply the model I created for the destruction of the ozone layer by hydrogen and methane flows to El Niño.

This is roughly how this process begins and develops. Hydrogen, released from the ocean floor from the rift valley of the East Pacific Rise (its sources were instrumentally discovered there) and reaching the surface, reacts with oxygen. As a result, heat is generated, which begins to warm up the water. The conditions here are very favorable for oxidative reactions: the surface layer of water is enriched with oxygen during wave interaction with the atmosphere.

However, the question arises: can hydrogen coming from the bottom reach the ocean surface in noticeable quantities? A positive answer was given by the results of American researchers who discovered twice the content of this gas in the air over the Gulf of California, compared to the background level. But here at the bottom there are hydrogen-methane sources with a total flow rate of 1.6 x 10 8 m 3 /year.

Hydrogen, rising from the depths of water into the stratosphere, forms an ozone hole into which ultraviolet and infrared solar radiation “falls”. Falling onto the surface of the ocean, it intensifies the heating of its upper layer that has begun (due to the oxidation of hydrogen). Most likely, it is the additional energy of the Sun that is the main and determining factor in this process. The role of oxidative reactions in heating is more problematic. This could not be discussed if it were not for the significant (from 36 to 32.7% o) desalination of ocean water that occurs simultaneously with it. The latter is probably accomplished by the very addition of water that is formed during the oxidation of hydrogen.

Due to the heating of the surface layer of the ocean, the solubility of CO 2 in it decreases, and it is released into the atmosphere. For example, during the El Niño of 1982-83. An additional 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide entered the air. Water evaporation also increases, and clouds appear over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Both water vapor and CO 2 are greenhouse gases; they absorb thermal radiation and become an excellent accumulator of additional energy coming through the ozone hole.

Gradually the process is gaining momentum. Anomalous heating of the air leads to a decrease in pressure, and a cyclonic region forms over the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. It is this that breaks the standard trade wind pattern of atmospheric dynamics in the area and “sucks” air from the western part of the Pacific Ocean. Following the subsidence of the trade winds, the surge of water off the Peruvian-Chilean coast decreases and the equatorial Cromwell countercurrent ceases to operate. Strong heating of the water leads to the formation of typhoons, which is very rare in normal years (due to the cooling influence of the Peruvian Current). From 1980 to 1989, ten typhoons occurred here, seven of them in 1982-83, when El Niño raged.

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY

Why is biological productivity so high off the west coast of South America? According to experts, it is the same as in the abundantly “fertilized” fish ponds of Asia, and 50 thousand times higher (!) than in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, if calculated by the number of fish caught. Traditionally, this phenomenon is explained by upwelling - a wind drive of warm water from the shore, forcing it to rise from the depths cold water, enriched with nutritional components, mainly nitrogen and phosphorus. During El Niño years, when the wind changes direction, upwelling is interrupted, and therefore, the flow of nutrient water stops. As a result, fish and birds die or migrate due to starvation.

All this resembles a perpetual motion machine: the abundance of life in surface waters is explained by the supply of nutrients from below, and their excess below is explained by the abundance of life above, because dying organic matter settles to the bottom. However, what is primary here, what gives impetus to such a cycle? Why does it not dry up, although, judging by the power of the guano deposits, it has been active for millennia?

The mechanism of wind upwelling itself is not very clear. The associated rise of deep water is usually determined by measuring its temperature on profiles of different levels oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Isotherms are then constructed that show the same low temperatures near the coast and at great depths away from it. And in the end they conclude that cold waters are rising. But it is known: near the shore low temperature is caused by the Peruvian Current, so the described method for determining the rise of deep waters is hardly correct. Finally, another ambiguity: the profiles mentioned are built across the coastline, and the prevailing winds here blow along it.

I am by no means going to overthrow the concept of wind upwelling - it is based on an understandable physical phenomenon and has a right to life. However, upon closer acquaintance with it in this area of ​​the ocean, all of the listed problems inevitably arise. Therefore, I propose a different explanation for the anomalous biological productivity off the western coast of South America: it is again determined by the degassing of the earth’s interior.

In fact, not the entire Peruvian-Chilean coastal strip is equally productive, as it should be under the influence of climatic upwelling. There are two separate “spots” here - northern and southern, and their position is controlled by tectonic factors. The first is located above a powerful fault extending from the ocean to the continent south of the Mendana fault (6-8 o S) and parallel to it. The second spot, somewhat smaller in size, is located just north of the Nazca Ridge (13-14 S latitude). All of these oblique (diagonal) geological structures running from the East Pacific Rise towards South America are essentially degassing zones; through them, a huge number of different chemical compounds flow from the earth’s interior to the bottom and into the water column. Among them there are, of course, vital elements - nitrogen, phosphorus, manganese, and plenty of microelements. In the thickness of the coastal Peruvian-Ecuadorian waters, the oxygen content is the lowest in the entire World Ocean, since the main volume here is made up of reduced gases - methane, hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen, ammonia. But the thin surface layer (20-30 m) is abnormally rich in oxygen due to the low temperature of the water brought here from Antarctica by the Peruvian Current. In this layer above fault zones - sources of endogenous nutrients - unique conditions for the development of life are created.

However, there is an area in the World Ocean that is not inferior in bioproductivity to the Peruvian one, and perhaps even superior to it - off the western coast of South Africa. It is also considered a wind upwelling zone. But the position of the most productive area here (Walvis Bay) is again controlled by tectonic factors: it is located above a powerful fault zone coming from the Atlantic Ocean to African continent slightly north of the Southern Tropic. And the cold, oxygen-rich Benguela Current runs along the coast from Antarctica.

The Southern region is also distinguished by colossal fish productivity. Kuril Islands, where the cold current passes over the submeridional marginal ocean rift Jonah. At the height of the saury season, literally the entire Far Eastern fishing fleet of Russia gathers in a small water area of ​​the South Kuril Strait. It is appropriate here to recall Kuril Lake in Southern Kamchatka, where one of the largest spawning grounds of sockeye salmon (a type of Far Eastern salmon) is located in our country. The reason for the very high biological productivity of the lake, according to experts, is the natural “fertilization” of its water with volcanic emanations (it is located between two volcanoes - Ilyinsky and Kambalny).

However, let's return to El Niño. During the period when degassing intensifies off the coast of South America, the thin, oxygenated and teeming with life surface layer of water is blown through with methane and hydrogen, oxygen disappears, and the mass death of all living things begins: from the bottom of the sea, trawls lift a huge number of bones of large fish, onto Galapagos Islands seals are dying. However, it is unlikely that the fauna is dying due to a decrease in ocean bioproductivity, as the traditional version says. She is most likely poisoned by poisonous gases rising from the bottom. After all, death comes suddenly and overtakes the entire marine community - from phytoplankton to vertebrates. Only birds die from hunger, and even then mostly chicks - adults simply leave the danger zone.

"RED TIDES"

However, after the mass disappearance of the biota, the amazing riot of life off the western coast of South America does not stop. In oxygen-deprived waters blown with toxic gases, single-celled algae - dinoflagellates - begin to rapidly develop. This phenomenon is known as "red tide" and is so named because only intensely colored algae thrive in such conditions. Their color is a kind of protection from solar ultraviolet radiation, acquired back in the Proterozoic (over 2 billion years ago), when there was no ozone layer and the surface of reservoirs was subjected to intense ultraviolet irradiation. So during “red tides” the ocean seems to return to its “pre-oxygen” past. Due to the abundance of microscopic algae, some marine organisms oysters, which usually act as water filters, such as oysters, become poisonous at this time and their consumption can lead to severe poisoning.

Within the framework of the gas-geochemical model I developed for the anomalous bioproductivity of local areas of the ocean and the periodically rapid death of biota in it, other phenomena are also explained: the massive accumulation of fossil fauna in ancient shales of Germany or phosphorites of the Moscow region, overflowing with the remains of fish bones and cephalopod shells.

MODEL CONFIRMED

I will give some facts indicating the reality of the El Niño degassing scenario.

During the years of its manifestation, the seismic activity of the East Pacific Rise sharply increases - this was the conclusion made by the American researcher D. Walker, having analyzed the relevant observations from 1964 to 1992 in the section of this underwater ridge between 20 and 40 degrees. w. But, as has long been established, seismic events are often accompanied by increased degassing of the earth’s interior. The model I developed is also supported by the fact that the waters off the western coast of South America literally boil with the release of gases during El Niño years. The hulls of ships are covered with black spots (the phenomenon is called “El Pintor”, translated from Spanish as “the painter”), and the foul smell of hydrogen sulfide spreads over large areas.

In the African Gulf of Walvis Bay (mentioned above as an area of ​​anomalous bioproductivity), environmental crises also periodically arise, following the same scenario as off the coast of South America. Emissions of gases begin in this bay, which leads to massive fish deaths, then “red tides” develop here, and the smell of hydrogen sulfide on land is felt even 40 miles from the coast. All this is traditionally associated with the abundant release of hydrogen sulfide, but its formation is explained by the decomposition of organic residues on the seabed. Although it is much more logical to consider hydrogen sulfide as a common component of deep emanations - after all, it comes out here only above the fault zone. The penetration of gas far onto land is also easier to explain by its arrival from the same fault, tracing from the ocean to the interior of the continent.

It is important to note the following: when deep gases enter ocean water, they are separated due to sharply different (by several orders of magnitude) solubility. For hydrogen and helium, it is 0.0181 and 0.0138 cm 3 in 1 cm 3 of water (at temperatures up to 20 C and a pressure of 0.1 MPa), and for hydrogen sulfide and ammonia it is incomparably greater: 2.6 and 700 cm, respectively 3 in 1 cm 3 . That is why the water above the degassing zones is greatly enriched with these gases.

A strong argument in favor of the El Niño degassing scenario is a map of the average monthly ozone deficiency over the equatorial region of the planet, compiled at the Central Aerological Observatory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia using satellite data. It clearly shows a powerful ozone anomaly over the axial part of the East Pacific Rise slightly south of the equator. I note that by the time the map was published, I had published a qualitative model explaining the possibility of destruction of the ozone layer above this zone. By the way, this is not the first time that my forecasts of the possible occurrence of ozone anomalies have been confirmed by field observations.

LA NINA

This is the name of the final phase of El Niño - a sharp cooling of water in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, when for a long period its temperature drops several degrees below normal. A natural explanation for this is the simultaneous destruction of the ozone layer both over the equator and over Antarctica. But if in the first case it causes heating of the water (El Niño), then in the second it causes a strong melting of ice in Antarctica. The latter increases the influx of cold water into the Antarctic waters. As a result, the temperature gradient between the equatorial and southern parts Pacific Ocean, and this leads to an intensification of the cold Peruvian Current, which cools the equatorial waters after the weakening of degassing and restoration of the ozone layer.

THE RIGITAL CAUSE IS IN SPACE

First, I would like to say a few “justifying” words about El Niño. The media, to put it mildly, are not entirely right when they accuse him of causing disasters such as floods in South Korea or unprecedented frosts in Europe. After all, deep degassing can simultaneously increase in many areas of the planet, which leads there to the destruction of the ozonosphere and the appearance of anomalous natural phenomena, which have already been mentioned. For example, the heating of water that precedes the occurrence of El Niño occurs under ozone anomalies not only in the Pacific, but also in other oceans.

As for the intensification of deep degassing, it is determined, in my opinion, by cosmic factors, mainly by the gravitational effect on the liquid core of the Earth, where the main planetary reserves of hydrogen are contained. An important role in this case is probably played by the relative position of the planets and, first of all, interactions in the Earth - Moon - Sun system. G.I. Voitov and his colleagues from the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth named after. O. Yu. Schmidt of the Russian Academy of Sciences established long ago: degassing of the subsoil noticeably increases during periods close to the full moon and new moon. It is also influenced by the position of the Earth in its circumsolar orbit and by changes in its rotation speed. The complex combination of all these external factors with processes in the depths of the planet (for example, the crystallization of its inner core) determines the pulses of increased planetary degassing, and hence the El Niño phenomenon. Its 2-7-year quasi-periodicity was revealed by domestic researcher N. S. Sidorenko (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia), having analyzed a continuous series of atmospheric pressure differences between the stations of Tahiti (on the island of the same name in the Pacific Ocean) and Darwin (northern coast of Australia) over a long period - since 1866 to the present time.

Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences V. L. SYVOROTKIN, Moscow State University them. M. V. Lomonosova

In the World Ocean, special phenomena (processes) are observed that can be considered anomalous. These phenomena extend over vast water areas and are of great ecological and geographical significance. Such anomalous phenomena covering the ocean and atmosphere are El Niño and La Niña. However, a distinction must be made between the El Niño current and the El Niño phenomenon.

El Niño current - a constant current, small on an oceanic scale, off the northwestern coast of South America. It can be traced from the Gulf of Panama area and follows south along the coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru to about 5 0 S However, approximately once every 6 - 7 years (but it happens more or less often), the El Niño current spreads far to the south, sometimes to northern and even central Chile (up to 35-40 0 S). The warm waters of El Niño push the cold waters of the Peru-Chile Current and coastal upwelling into the open ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the coastal zone of Ecuador and Peru rise to 21–23 0 C, and sometimes up to 25–29 0 C. The anomalous development of this warm current, which lasts almost six months - from December to May and which usually appears around Catholic Christmas, is called "El Niño" - from the Spanish "El Nico - the baby (Christ)." It was first noticed in 1726.

This purely oceanological process has tangible and often catastrophic environmental consequences on land. Due to the sharp warming of water in the coastal zone (by 8-14 0 C), the amount of oxygen and, accordingly, the biomass of cold-loving species of phyto- and zooplankton, the main food of anchovies and other commercial fish of the Peruvian region, significantly decreases. A huge number of fish either die or disappear from this water area. Peruvian anchovy catches fall 10 times in such years. After the fish, the birds that feed on them also disappear. As a result of this natural disaster, South American fishermen are going bankrupt. In previous years, the abnormal development of El Niño led to famine in several countries on the Pacific coast of South America. . In addition, during the passage of El Niño weather conditions in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile are deteriorating sharply, where powerful downpours occur, leading to catastrophic floods, mudflows and soil erosion on the western slopes of the Andes.

However, the consequences of the anomalous development of the El Niño current are felt only on the Pacific coast of South America.

The main culprit for the increasing frequency of weather anomalies in recent years, which have covered almost all continents, is called El Niño/La Niña phenomenon, manifested in a significant change in the temperature of the upper layer of water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which causes intense turbulent heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Currently, the term "El Niño" is used to refer to situations where abnormally warm surface waters occupy not only the coastal region near South America, but also most of the tropical Pacific Ocean up to the 180th meridian.

Under normal weather conditions, when the El Niño phase has not yet arrived, warm surface ocean waters are retained easterly winds- trade winds - in the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. The depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters, and it is the formation of such a large heat reservoir that is the main and necessary condition for the transition to the El Niño phenomenon. At this time, the water surface temperature in the western ocean is tropical zone is 29-30°, while in the east it is 22-24°C. This difference in temperature is explained by the rise of cold deep waters to the surface of the ocean off the west coast of South America. At the same time, in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, a water area with a huge reserve of heat is formed and equilibrium is observed in the ocean-atmosphere system. This is a situation of normal balance.

Approximately once every 3-7 years, the balance is disrupted, and the warm waters of the western Pacific Ocean move east, and over a huge area of ​​water in the equatorial eastern part of the ocean, a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water occurs. The El Niño phase begins, the beginning of which is marked by sudden heavy westerly winds (Fig. 22). They reverse the usual weak trade winds over the warm western Pacific and prevent cold deep waters off the west coast of South America from rising to the surface. The atmospheric phenomena accompanying El Niño were called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO - El Niño - Southern Oscillation), as they were first observed in the Southern Hemisphere. Due to the warm water surface, intense convective rise of air is observed in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, and not in the western part, as usual. As a result, the area of ​​heavy rainfall shifts from the western to the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rain and hurricanes hit Central and South America.

Rice. 22. Normal conditions and the onset phase of El Niño

Over the past 25 years, there have been five active El Niño cycles: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.

The mechanism of development of the La Niña phenomenon (in Spanish La Niça - “girl”) - the “antipode” of El Niño is somewhat different. The La Niña phenomenon manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean. Installation here is unusual cold weather. During the formation of La Niña, easterly winds from the west coast of the Americas increase significantly. Winds shift the warm water zone (WWZ), and the “tongue” of cold waters stretches for 5000 kilometers in exactly the place (Ecuador - Samoa Islands) where during El Niño there should be a belt of warm waters. This belt of warm waters moves to the western Pacific Ocean, causing powerful monsoon rains in Indochina, India and Australia. At the same time, the countries of the Caribbean and the United States suffer from droughts, dry winds and tornadoes.

La Niña cycles occurred in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96.

Although the atmospheric processes that develop during El Niño or La Niña mostly operate in tropical latitudes, their consequences are felt throughout the planet and are accompanied by environmental disasters: hurricanes and rainstorms, droughts and fires.

El Niño occurs on average once every three to four years, La Niña - once every six to seven years. Both phenomena bring with them an increased number of hurricanes, but during La Niña there are three to four times more storms than during El Niño.

The occurrence of El Niño or La Niña can be predicted if:

1. Near the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, an area of ​​warmer water than usual (El Niño phenomenon) or colder water (La Niña phenomenon) forms.

2. The atmospheric pressure trend between the port of Darwin (Australia) and the island of Tahiti (Pacific Ocean) is compared. During El Niño, pressure will be low in Tahiti and high in Darwin. During La Niña it is the other way around.

Research has established that the El Niño phenomenon is not only simple coordinated fluctuations in surface pressure and ocean water temperature. El Niño and La Niña are the most pronounced manifestations of interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena represent large-scale changes in ocean temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and vertical air movements over the tropical Pacific Ocean and lead to abnormal weather conditions around the globe.

During El Niño years in the tropics, precipitation increases over areas east of the central Pacific Ocean and decreases over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, above-normal precipitation is observed along the coast of Ecuador, in northwestern Peru, over southern Brazil, central Argentina and over equatorial, eastern Africa, during June-August in the western United States and over central Chile.

El Niño is also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world.

During El Niño years, energy transfer into the troposphere of tropical and temperate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrasts between tropical and polar latitudes, and intensification of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in temperate latitudes.

During El Niño years:

1. The Honolulu and Asian anticyclones are weakened;

2. The summer depression over southern Eurasia is filled, which is the main reason for the weakening of the monsoon over India;

3. The winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows are more developed than usual.

During La Niña years, precipitation increases over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, and the Philippines and is almost completely absent in the eastern part of the ocean. More precipitation falls in northern South America, South Africa and southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the coast of Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa. There are large-scale temperature excursions around the world, with the largest number of areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions.

Over the past decade, great strides have been made in the comprehensive study of the El Niño phenomenon. This phenomenon does not depend on solar activity, but is associated with features in the planetary interaction of the ocean and atmosphere. A connection has been established between El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) of surface atmospheric pressure in southern latitudes. This change in atmospheric pressure leads to significant changes in the system of trade winds and monsoon winds and, accordingly, surface ocean currents.

The El Niño phenomenon is increasingly affecting the global economy. So, this phenomenon of 1982-83. provoked terrible rainfalls in the countries of South America, caused enormous losses, and the economies of many countries were paralyzed. The effects of El Niño were felt by half of the world's population.

The strongest El Niño of 1997-1998 was the strongest during the entire observation period. It caused the most powerful hurricane in the history of meteorological observations, sweeping over the countries of South and Central America. Hurricane winds and downpours swept away hundreds of houses, entire areas were flooded, and vegetation was destroyed. In Peru, in the Atacama Desert, where rains generally occur once every ten years, a huge lake with an area of ​​tens of square kilometers has formed. Unusually warm weather was recorded in South Africa, southern Mozambique, Madagascar, and unprecedented drought reigned in Indonesia and the Philippines, leading to forest fires. India experienced virtually no normal monsoon rains, while arid Somalia received significantly above normal rainfall. The total damage from the disaster amounted to about 50 billion dollars.

El Niño 1997-1998 significantly affected the average global air temperature of the Earth: it exceeded normal by 0.44°C. In the same year, 1998, the highest average annual air temperature was recorded on Earth for all years of instrumental observations.

The collected data indicate the regular occurrence of El Niño with an interval ranging from 4 to 12 years. The duration of El Niño itself varies from 6–8 months to 3 years, most often it is 1–1.5 years. This great variability makes it difficult to predict the phenomenon.

The influence of the climatic phenomena El Niño and La Niña, and therefore the number of unfavorable weather conditions on the planet, according to climate specialists, will increase. Therefore, humanity must closely monitor and study these climate phenomena.

Rains, landslides, floods, drought, smog, monsoon rains, countless casualties, multi-billion dollar damage... The name of the destroyer is known: in melodic Spanish it sounds almost tender - El Niño (baby, little boy). This is what Peruvian fishermen call the warm current that appears off the coast of South America during the Christmas season, increasing the catch. True, sometimes instead of the long-awaited warming, a sharp cooling suddenly occurs. And then the current is called La Niña (girl).

The first mention of the term “El Niño” dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo made a report about this warm northern current at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima. The name "El Niño" is given to the current because it is most noticeable during the Christmas period. However, even then the phenomenon was interesting only because of its biological impact on the efficiency of the fertilizer industry.

For most of the twentieth century, El Niño was considered a large, but still local phenomenon.

The Great El Niño of 1982-1983 led to a sharp rise in the interest of the scientific community in this phenomenon.

The 1997-1998 El Niño far exceeded the one in 1982 in the number of deaths and destruction it caused and was the most violent of the last century. The disaster was so strong that at least 4,000 people died. Global damage was estimated at more than $20 billion.

IN last years The press and media contained many alarming reports about weather anomalies that covered almost all continents of the Earth. At the same time, the unpredictable El Niño phenomenon, which brings heat to the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, was called the main culprit of all climatic and social troubles. Moreover, some scientists viewed this phenomenon as a harbinger of even more radical climate change.

What data does science currently have about the mysterious El Niño current?

The El Niño phenomenon consists of a sharp increase in temperature (by 5-9 °C) of the surface layer of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean (in the tropical and central parts) over an area of ​​about 10 million square meters. km.

The processes of formation of the strongest warm current in the ocean in our century presumably look as follows. Under normal weather conditions, when the El Niño phase has not yet set in, warm surface waters of the ocean are transported and retained by easterly winds - trade winds in the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. The depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters. The formation of such a huge heat reservoir is the main necessary condition for the transition to the El Niño regime. Moreover, as a result of the surge of water, the ocean level off the coast of Indonesia is half a meter higher than the coast of South America. At the same time, the water surface temperature in the west in the tropical zone averages 29-30 °C, and in the east 22-24 °C. A slight cooling of the surface in the east is the result of upwelling, i.e., the rise of deep cold waters to the surface of the ocean when water is sucked in by trade winds. At the same time, the largest region of heat and stationary unstable equilibrium in the ocean-atmosphere system is formed above the TTB in the atmosphere (when all forces are balanced and the TTB is motionless).

For still unknown reasons, at intervals of 3-7 years, the trade winds weaken, the balance is upset, and the warm waters of the western basin rush east, creating one of the strongest warm currents in the World Ocean. Over a vast area in the eastern Pacific Ocean, there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean. This is the onset of the El Niño phase. Its beginning is marked by a long onslaught of squally westerly winds. They replace the usual weak trade winds over the warm western part of the Pacific Ocean and prevent cold deep waters from rising to the surface. As a result, upwelling is blocked.

Although the processes themselves that develop during the El Niño phase are regional, their consequences are nonetheless global. El Niño is usually accompanied by environmental disasters: droughts, fires, heavy rains, causing flooding of vast areas of densely populated areas, which leads to the death of people and the destruction of livestock and crops in different regions of the Earth. El Niño has a significant impact on the global economy. According to American experts, in 1982-1983, economic damage from the consequences of El Niño amounted to $13 billion, and according to estimates from the world's leading insurance company Munich Re, damage from natural disasters in the first half of 1998 is estimated at $24 billion.

The warm western basin usually enters an opposite phase a year after an El Niño, when the eastern Pacific cools. Phases of warming and cooling alternate with a normal state, when heat accumulates in the western basin (WBT) and the state of stationary unstable equilibrium is restored.

According to many experts, the main cause of the current cataclysms is global warming climate as a result of the “greenhouse effect” due to technogenic development of the Earth and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons).

Meteorological data on the temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, collected over the past hundred years, show that the climate on Earth has warmed by 0.5-0.6 °C. The steady rise in temperature was disrupted by a brief cold snap between 1940 and 1970, after which warming resumed.

Although the increase in temperature is consistent with the greenhouse effect hypothesis, there are other factors that influence warming (volcanic eruptions, ocean currents, etc.). It will be possible to establish the unambiguous cause of warming after the receipt of new data in the next 10-15 years. All models predict that warming will increase significantly in the coming decades. From this we can conclude that the frequency of the El Niño phenomenon and its intensity will increase.

Climate variations over the period of 3-7 years are determined by changes in vertical circulation in the ocean and atmosphere and ocean surface temperature. In other words, they change the intensity of heat and mass transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ocean and atmosphere are open, nonequilibrium, nonlinear systems, between which there is a constant exchange of heat and moisture.

By the way, such systems are characterized by the self-organization of such formidable structures as tropical cyclones, which transport energy and moisture received from the ocean over long distances.

An assessment of the energy interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere allows us to come to the conclusion that the energy of El Niño can lead to disturbances in the entire atmosphere of the Earth, which leads to environmental disasters that have occurred in recent years.

In the future, as the famous Canadian scientist and climate change specialist Henry Hincheveld showed, “society needs to abandon the idea that climate is something unchanging. It is fluid, change will continue, and humanity needs to develop an infrastructure that allows it to be prepared to face the unexpected.”

1. What is El Nino 03/18/2009 El Nino is a climate anomaly...

1. What is El Nino (El Nino) 03/18/2009 El Nino is a climatic anomaly that occurs between the western coast of South America and the South Asian region (Indonesia, Australia). For more than 150 years, with a periodicity of two to seven years, a change in the climate situation has been occurring in this region. In a normal state, independent of El Niño, the southern trade wind blows in the direction from the subtropical high pressure zone to equatorial zones low pressure, it deviates near the equator from east to west under the influence of the Earth's rotation. The trade wind carries cool surface water from the South American coast to the west. Due to the movement of water masses, a water cycle occurs. The heated surface layer that arrives in Southeast Asia is replaced by cold water. Thus, cold, nutrient-rich water, which, due to its greater density, is found in the deep regions of the Pacific Ocean, moves from west to east. In front of the South American coast, this water ends up in a region of buoyancy on the surface. That is why the cold and nutrient-rich Humboldt Current is located there.

Superimposed on the described water circulation is air circulation (Volcker circulation). Its important component is the southeast trade winds, blowing towards southeast Asia due to the difference in temperature at the surface of the water in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean. In normal years, air rises above the water surface heated by strong solar radiation off the coast of Indonesia, and thus a low pressure zone appears in this region.

This area of ​​low pressure is called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITC) because it is where the southeast and northeast trade winds meet. Basically, the wind is drawn in from the low pressure area, so the air masses that gather on the surface of the earth (convergence) rise in the low pressure area.

On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America (Peru), in normal years there is a relatively stable area of ​​high pressure. Air masses from the low pressure zone are driven in this direction due to the strong air flow from the west. In a high pressure zone, they are directed downward and diverge on the surface of the earth in different directions (divergence). This area of ​​high pressure occurs because there is a cold surface layer of water below, causing air to sink. To complete the circulation of air currents, trade winds blow eastward towards the Indonesian low pressure area.

In normal years, there is an area of ​​low pressure in the area of ​​​​southeast Asia, and an area of ​​​​high pressure in front of the coast of South America. Because of this, there is a colossal difference in atmospheric pressure, on which the intensity of the trade winds depends. Due to the movement of large water masses due to the influence of trade winds, the sea level off the coast of Indonesia is approximately 60 cm higher than off the coast of Peru. In addition, the water there is about 10°C warmer. This warm water is a prerequisite for the heavy rains, monsoons and hurricanes that often occur in these regions.

The described mass circulations make it possible for cold and nutrient-rich water to always be located off the South American west coast. That's why the cold Humboldt Current is right offshore there. At the same time, this cold and nutrient-rich water is always rich in fish, which is the most important prerequisite for life, all ecosystems with all its fauna (birds, seals, penguins, etc.) and people, since people on the coast of Peru live mainly through fishing.

In an El Niño year, the entire system falls into disarray. Due to the fading or absence of the trade wind, which involves the southern oscillation, the difference in sea level of 60 cm is significantly reduced. The Southern Oscillation is a periodic fluctuation in atmospheric pressure in the southern hemisphere that has a natural origin. It is also called an atmospheric pressure swing, which, for example, destroys the high pressure area off South America and replaces it with a low pressure area, which is usually responsible for countless rains in Southeast Asia. This is how changes in atmospheric pressure occur. This process occurs in an El Niño year. Trade winds are losing strength due to a weakening high pressure area off South America. The equatorial current is not driven as usual by the trade winds from east to west, but moves in the opposite direction. There is an outflow of warm water masses from Indonesia towards South America due to equatorial Kelvin waves (Kelvin waves Chapter 1.2).

Thus, a layer of warm water, over which the southeast Asian low pressure zone is located, moves across the Pacific Ocean. After 2-3 months of movement, he reaches the South American coast. This is the cause of the large tongue of warm water off the western coast of South America, which causes terrible disasters in El Niño years. If this situation occurs, then the Volcker circulation turns in the other direction. During this period, it creates the preconditions for air masses to move east, where they rise above warm water (low pressure zone) and are transported strong winds eastbound back to southeast Asia. There they begin to descend over cold water(high pressure zone).

This circulation got its name from its discoverer, Sir Gilbert Volker. The harmonious unity between the ocean and the atmosphere begins to fluctuate, this phenomenon is now quite well studied. But still, it is still impossible to name the exact cause of the El Niño phenomenon. During El Niño years, due to circulation anomalies, there is cold water off the coast of Australia, and warm water off the coast of South America, which displaces the cold Humboldt Current. Based on the fact that mainly off the coast of Peru and Ecuador upper layer Since the water becomes warmer by an average of 8°C, you can easily recognize the appearance of the El Niño phenomenon. This increased temperature of the upper layer of water causes natural disasters with consequences. Because of this crucial change, the fish cannot find food as the algae die and the fish migrate to colder, food-rich regions. As a result of this migration, the food chain is disrupted, the animals included in it die of hunger or seek a new habitat.

The South American fishing industry is greatly affected by the loss of fish, i.e. and El Niño. Due to the strong warming of the sea surface and the associated low pressure zone, clouds and heavy rains begin to form off Peru, Ecuador and Chile, turning into floods that cause landslides in these countries. The North American coast bordering these countries is also affected by the El Niño phenomenon: storms intensify and a lot of precipitation falls. Off the coast of Mexico due to warm temperature waters arise powerful hurricanes causing enormous damage, such as Hurricane Pauline in October 1997. In the Western Pacific, the exact opposite is happening.

There is a severe drought here, causing crop failures. Due to the long drought, they are getting out of control. Forest fires, a powerful fire causes clouds of smog over Indonesia. This is due to the fact that the monsoon period, which usually extinguishes the fire, was delayed by several months or in some areas did not begin at all. The El Niño phenomenon affects not only the Pacific Ocean; it is also noticeable in other places in its consequences, for example, in Africa. There in the south of the country a severe drought is killing people. In Somalia (southeast Africa), by contrast, entire villages are being swept away by floods. El Niño is a global climate phenomenon. This climatic anomaly got its name from the Peruvian fishermen who were the first to experience it. They called this phenomenon ironically "El Niño", which means "Christ child" or "boy" in Spanish, because El Niño influence It is felt most strongly at Christmas time. El Niño causes countless natural disasters and brings little good.

This natural climate anomaly was not caused by humans, since it has probably been engaged in its destructive activities for several centuries. Since the discovery of America by the Spaniards more than 500 years ago, a description of typical El Niño phenomena has been known. We humans became interested in this phenomenon 150 years ago, as that was when El Niño was first taken seriously. We with our modern civilization can support this phenomenon, but not bring it to life. El Niño is believed to be getting stronger and occurring more frequently due to the greenhouse effect (increased release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere). El Niño has only been studied in recent decades, so much is still unclear to us (see Chapter 6).

1.1 La Niña is the sister of El Niño 03/18/2009

La Niña is the exact opposite of El Niño and therefore most often occurs together with El Niño. When La Niña occurs, surface water in the equatorial region of the eastern Pacific Ocean cools. In this region there was a tongue of warm water caused by El Niño. The cooling occurs due to the large difference in atmospheric pressure between South America and Indonesia. Because of this, trade winds intensify, which is associated with the southern oscillation (SO), they drive a large amount of water to the west.

Thus, in areas of buoyancy off the coast of South America, cold water rises to the surface. The water temperature can drop to 24°C, i.e. 3°C lower than average temperature water in this region. Six months ago, the water temperature there reached 32°C, which was caused by the influence of El Niño.

In general, when La Niña occurs, it can be said that typical climatic conditions in a given area intensify. For Southeast Asia, this means that the usual heavy rains cause cooling. These rains are highly anticipated after the recent dry spell. A long drought in late 1997 and early 1998 caused severe forest fires that spread a cloud of smog over Indonesia.

In South America, on the contrary, flowers no longer bloom in the desert, as they did during El Niño in 1997-98. Instead, a very severe drought begins again. Another example is the return of warm to hot weather to California. Along with the positive consequences of La Niña, there are also Negative consequences. So, for example, in North America the number of hurricanes increases compared to an El Niño year. If we compare the two climate anomalies, then during La Niña there are much fewer natural disasters than during El Niño, therefore La Niña - El Niño’s sister - does not come out of the shadow of its “brother” and is much less feared, than her relative.

The last strong La Niña events occurred in 1995-96, 1988-89 and 1975-76. It must be said that the manifestations of La Niña can be completely different in strength. The occurrence of La Niña has decreased significantly in recent decades. Previously, “brother” and “sister” acted with equal strength, but in recent decades El Niño has gained strength and brings much more destruction and damage.

This shift in the strength of manifestation is caused, according to researchers, by the influence of the greenhouse effect. But this is only an assumption that has not yet been proven.

1.2 El Niño in detail 03/19/2009

To understand in detail the causes of El Niño, this chapter will examine the influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Volcker Circulation on El Niño. In addition, the chapter will explain the crucial role of Kelvin waves and their consequences.

In order to timely predict the occurrence of El Niño, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is taken. It shows the difference in air pressure between Darwin (Northern Australia) and Tahiti. One average atmospheric pressure per month is subtracted from the other, the difference being the UIE. Since Tahiti usually has a higher atmospheric pressure than Darwin, and thus an area of ​​high pressure dominates over Tahiti and a low pressure area over Darwin, the UIE in this case has a positive value. During El Niño years or as a precursor to El Niño, the UIE has a negative value. Thus, the atmospheric pressure conditions over the Pacific Ocean have changed. The greater the difference in atmospheric pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, i.e. The larger the UJO, the stronger the El Niño or La Niña.

Since La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it occurs under completely different conditions, i.e. with a positive IJO. The connection between the UIE oscillations and the onset of El Niño is called “ENSO” (El Niño Südliche Oszillation) in English-speaking countries. UIE is an important indicator of an upcoming climate anomaly.

The Southern Oscillation (SO), on which the SIO is based, refers to fluctuations in atmospheric pressure in the Pacific Ocean. This is a type of oscillatory movement between atmospheric pressure conditions in the east and western parts Pacific Ocean, which are brought to life by movement air masses. This movement is caused by the varying strength of the Volcker circulation. The Volcker circulation was named after its discoverer, Sir Gilbert Volcker. Due to missing data, he could only describe the impact of JO, but could not explain the reasons. Only the Norwegian meteorologist J. Bjerknes in 1969 was able to fully explain the Volcker circulation. Based on his research, the ocean-atmosphere dependent Volcker circulation is explained as follows (distinguishing between the El Niño circulation and the normal Volcker circulation).

In the Volcker circulation, the decisive factor is the different water temperatures. Above the cold water there is cold and dry air, which is carried by air currents (southeast trade winds) to the west. This warms the air and absorbs moisture so that it rises over the western Pacific Ocean. Some of this air flows towards the pole, thus forming a Hadley cell. The other part moves at altitude along the equator to the east, descends and thus ends the circulation. The peculiarity of the Volcker circulation is that it is not deflected by the Coriolis force, but passes exactly through the equator, where the Coriolis force does not act. In order to better understand the reasons for the occurrence of El Niño in connection with the South Ossetia and the Volcker circulation, let us take the southern El Niño oscillation system to help. Based on it, you can create a complete picture of the circulation. This regulatory mechanism is highly dependent on the subtropical high pressure zone. If it is strongly expressed, then this is the cause of a strong southeast trade wind. This, in turn, causes an increase in the activity of the lift region off the South American coast and, thus, a decrease in surface water temperatures near the equator.

This condition is called the La Niña phase, which is the opposite of El Niño. The Volcker circulation is further driven by the cold temperature of the water surface. This leads to low air pressure in Jakarta (Indonesia) and is associated with light precipitation in Canton Island (Polynesia). Due to the weakening of the Hadley cell, there is a decrease in atmospheric pressure in the subtropical high pressure zone, resulting in a weakening of the trade winds. Lift off South America is reduced and allows surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to rise significantly. In this situation, the onset of El Niño is very likely. Warm water off Peru, which is especially pronounced as a tongue of warm water during El Niño, is responsible for the weakening of the Volker circulation. This is associated with heavy rainfall in Canton Island and falling atmospheric pressure in Jakarta.

Last integral part In this cycle, the Hadley circulation intensifies, resulting in a strong increase in pressure in the subtropical zone. This simplified mechanism for regulating coupled atmospheric-ocean circulations in the tropical and subtropical South Pacific explains the alternation of El Niño and La Niña. If we take a closer look at the El Niño phenomenon, it becomes clear that equatorial Kelvin waves are of great importance.

They smooth out not only the varying sea level heights in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño, but also reduce the jump layer in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. These changes have fatal consequences for marine life and the local fishing industry. Equatorial Kelvin waves occur when trade winds weaken and the resulting rise in water levels in the center of an atmospheric depression moves east. The rise in water levels can be recognized by the sea level, which is 60 cm higher off the coast of Indonesia. Another reason for the occurrence may be the air currents of the Volcker circulation blowing in the opposite direction, which serve as the cause for the occurrence of these waves. The propagation of Kelvin waves should be thought of as the propagation of waves in a filled water hose. The speed at which Kelvin waves propagate on the surface depends mainly on the depth of the water and the force of gravity. On average, a Kelvin wave takes two months to travel sea level differences from Indonesia to South America.

According to satellite data, the propagation speed of Kelvin waves reaches 2.5 m/sec with a wave height of 10 to 20 cm. On the islands of the Pacific Ocean, Kelvin waves are recorded as fluctuations in the water level. Kelvin waves after crossing the tropical Pacific Ocean hit the west coast of South America and raise sea levels by about 30 cm, as they did during the El Niño period of late 1997 - early 1998. Such a change in level does not remain without consequences. An increase in water level causes a decrease in the jump layer, which, in turn, has fatal consequences for marine fauna. Just before it hits the coast, the Kelvin wave diverges in two different directions. Waves passing directly along the equator are reflected as Rossby waves after colliding with the coast. They move towards the equator from east to west at a speed equal to one third of the speed of a Kelvin wave.

The remaining portions of the equatorial Kelvin wave are deflected north and south poleward as coastal Kelvin waves. After the difference in sea level is smoothed out, the equatorial Kelvin waves end their work in the Pacific Ocean.

2. Regions affected by El Niño 03/20/2009

The El Niño phenomenon, which is expressed in a significant increase in ocean surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Peru), causes severe natural disasters of various types in the Pacific Ocean region. In regions such as California, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Southern Brazil, in regions Latin America, as well as in the countries lying west of the Andes, there is a lot of precipitation, causing severe flooding. On the contrary, in Northern Brazil, southeast Africa and southeast Asia, Indonesia, Australia, El Niño causes severe dry periods, which have devastating consequences for the lives of people in these regions. These are the most common consequences of El Niño.

These two extremes are possible due to a stop in the Pacific Ocean circulation, which normally causes cold water to rise off the coast of South America and warm water to sink off the coast of Southeast Asia. Due to the reversal of circulation during El Niño years, the situation is reversed: cold water off the coast of southeast Asia and significantly warmer water than normal off the western coast of Central and South America. The reason for this is that the southerly trade wind stops blowing or blows in the opposite direction. It does not transport warm water as before, but causes the water to move back to the coast of South America in a wave-like motion (Kelvin wave) due to the difference in sea level of 60 cm off the coast of southeast Asia and South America. The resulting tongue of warm water is twice the size of the United States.

Above this area, water immediately begins to evaporate, resulting in the formation of clouds that bring large amounts of precipitation. The clouds are carried by the westerly wind towards the western South American coast, where precipitation occurs. Most of the precipitation falls in front of the Andes over the coastal regions, as the clouds must be light in order to cross the high mountain range. Central South America also experiences heavy rainfall. For example, in the Paraguayan city of Encarnacion at the end of 1997 - beginning of 1998, 279 liters of water per square meter fell in five hours. Similar amounts of rainfall occurred in other regions, such as Ithaca in Southern Brazil. Rivers overflowed their banks and caused numerous landslides. Over the course of a few weeks in late 1997 and early 1998, 400 people died and 40,000 lost their homes.

A completely opposite scenario is playing out in regions affected by drought. Here people struggle for the last drops of water and die due to constant drought. Drought is particularly threatening to the indigenous peoples of Australia and Indonesia, as they live far from civilization and depend on monsoon periods and natural water resources, which, due to the effects of El Niño, are either delayed or dry up. In addition, people are threatened by out-of-control forest fires, which in normal years die out during the monsoon (tropical rains) and thus do not lead to devastating consequences. The drought is also affecting farmers in Australia, who are forced to reduce their livestock numbers due to lack of water. The lack of water leads to restrictions on water consumption, as, for example, in the large city of Sydney.

In addition, one should be wary of crop failures, such as in 1998, when the wheat harvest decreased from 23.6 million tons (1997) to 16.2 million tons. Another danger to the population is pollution drinking water bacteria and blue-green algae, which can cause epidemics. The danger of an epidemic is also present in regions affected by floods.

At the end of the year, people in the million-strong metropolises of Rio de Janeiro and La Paz (La Paz) were struggling with temperatures that were about 6-10°C above average, while the Panama Canal, in contrast, suffered from an unusual lack of water, as how the freshwater lakes from which the Panama Canal receives its water have dried up (January 1998). Because of this, only small ships with shallow drafts could pass through the canal.

Along with these two most common natural disasters caused by El Niño, other disasters occur in other regions. Thus, Canada is also affected by the effects of El Niño: a warm winter is predicted in advance, as this happened in previous El Niño years. In Mexico, the number of hurricanes that occur over water warmer than 27°C is increasing. They appear unhindered above the warmed surface of the water, which usually does not happen or happens very rarely. Thus, Hurricane Pauline in the fall of 1997 caused devastating destruction.

Mexico, along with California, is also hit by severe storms. They manifest themselves in the form of hurricane winds and long rainy periods, which can result in mud flows and floods.

Clouds coming from the Pacific Ocean and containing large amounts of precipitation fall as heavy rains over the western Andes. Eventually they may cross the Andes in westward and move on to the South American coast. This process can be explained as follows:

Due to intense insolation, water begins to evaporate strongly above the warm surface of the water, forming clouds. With further evaporation, huge rain clouds are formed, which are driven by a light westerly wind in the desired direction and which begin to fall as precipitation over the coastal strip. The further the clouds move inland, the less precipitation they contain, so that almost no precipitation falls over the arid part of the country. Thus, there is less and less precipitation in the easterly direction. The air comes east from South America dry and warm, so it is able to absorb moisture. This becomes possible because precipitation releases a large amount of energy, which was necessary for evaporation and due to which the air became very hot. Thus, warm and dry air can evaporate the remaining moisture with the help of insolation, causing most of The country is drying up. A dry period begins, associated with crop failures and lack of water.

This pattern, which applies to South America, does not, however, explain the unusually high amounts of rainfall in Mexico, Guatemala and Costa Rica compared to the neighboring Latin American country of Panama, which is suffering from water shortages and the associated drying up of the Panama Canal.

Persistent dry spells and associated forest fires in Indonesia and Australia have been attributed to cold water in the western Pacific Ocean. Typically, the western Pacific Ocean is dominated by warm water, which causes large amounts of clouds to form, as is currently happening in the eastern Pacific Ocean. At present, clouds are not forming in Southeast Asia, so the necessary rains and monsoons are not starting, causing forest fires that would normally die down during the rainy season to burn out of control. The result is huge clouds of smog over the Indonesian islands and parts of Australia.

It still remains unclear why El Niño causes heavy rains and floods in southeastern Africa (Kenya, Somalia). These countries lie near the Indian Ocean, i.e. far from the Pacific Ocean. This fact can be partly explained by the fact that the Pacific Ocean stores enormous amounts of energy, like 300,000 nuclear power plants (almost half a billion megawatts). This energy is used when water evaporates and is released when precipitation falls in other regions. Thus, in the year of the influence of El Niño, a huge number of clouds are formed in the atmosphere, which are transported by the wind due to excess energy over long distances.

Using the examples given in this chapter, it can be understood that the influence of El Niño cannot be explained by simple reasons; it must be considered differentiated. The influence of El Niño is obvious and varied. Behind the atmospheric-oceanic processes responsible for this process lies a huge amount of energy that causes destructive disasters.

Due to the spread of natural disasters in different regions, El Niño can be said to be a global climate phenomenon, although not all disasters can be attributed to it.

3. How do fauna cope with the abnormal conditions caused by El Niño? 03/24/2009

The El Niño phenomenon, which usually occurs in water and in the atmosphere, affects some ecosystems in the most terrible way - the food chain, which includes all living things, is significantly disrupted. Gaps appear in the food chain, with fatal consequences for some animals. For example, some species of fish migrate to other regions that are richer in food.

But not all changes caused by El Niño have negative consequences on ecosystems; there are a number of positive changes for the animal world, and, therefore, for humans. For example, fishermen off the coast of Peru, Ecuador and other countries can catch in suddenly warm water tropical fish, such as sharks, mackerel and stingray. These exotic fish became the fish of mass catch during the El Niño years (in 1982/83) and allowed the fishing industry to survive during the difficult years. Also in 1982-83, El Niño caused a real boom associated with shell mining.

But the positive impact of El Niño is barely noticeable against the backdrop of the catastrophic consequences. This chapter will discuss both sides of the influence of El Niño in order to obtain a complete picture of the environmental consequences of the El Niño phenomenon.

3.1 Pelagic (deep-sea) food chain and marine organisms 03/24/2009

In order to understand the varied and complex effects of El Niño on the animal world, it is necessary to understand the normal conditions for the existence of fauna. The food chain, which includes all living things, is based on individual food chains. Various ecosystems depend on well-functioning relationships in the food chain. The pelagic food chain off the western coast of Peru is an example of such a food chain. All animals and organisms that swim in water are called pelagic. Even the smallest parts of the food chain are of great importance, since their disappearance can lead to serious disruptions throughout the chain. The main component of the food chain is microscopic phytoplankton, primarily diatoms. They convert carbon dioxide contained in water into organic compounds (glucose) and oxygen with the help of sunlight.

This process is called photosynthesis. Since photosynthesis can only occur near the surface of the water, there must always be nutrient-rich, cool water near the surface. Nutrient-rich water refers to water that contains nutrients, as phosphate, nitrate and silicate, necessary for the construction of the skeleton of diatoms. In normal years this is not a problem, as the Humboldt Current, off the western coast of Peru, is one of the most nutrient-rich currents. Wind and other mechanisms (for example, Kelvin waves) cause lift and thus water rises to the surface. This process is beneficial only if the thermocline (shock layer) is not below the action of the lifting force. The thermocline is the dividing line between warm, nutrient-poor water and cold, nutrient-rich water. If the situation described above occurs, then only warm, nutrient-poor water comes up, as a result of which the phytoplankton located on the surface dies due to lack of nutrition.

This situation occurs in an El Niño year. It is caused by Kelvin waves, which lower the shock layer below the normal 40-80 meters. Due to this process, the resulting mortality of phytoplankton has tangible consequences for all animals included in food chain. Even those animals at the end of the food chain must accept dietary restrictions.

Along with phytoplankton, zooplankton, consisting of living creatures, is also included in the food chain. Both of these nutrients are approximately equally important for fish that prefer to live in the cool water of the Humboldt Current. These fish include (if ordered by population size) anchovies or anchovies, which have long been the most important fish species in the world, as well as sardines and mackerel of various types. These pelagic fish species can be classified into various subspecies. Pelagic fish species are those that live in open water, i.e. In the open sea. Hamsa prefers cold regions, while sardines, on the contrary, love warmer regions. Thus, in normal years the number of fish of different species is balanced, but in El Niño years this balance is disrupted due to different preferences in water temperature among different species of fish. For example, schools of sandinas are spreading significantly, because they do not respond as strongly to warming waters as, for example, anchovy.

Both fish species are affected by the tongue of warm water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, caused by El Niño, which causes water temperatures to rise by an average of 5-10°C. Fish migrate to colder and food-rich regions. But there are schools of fish remaining in the residual areas of the lifting force, i.e. where the water still contains nutrients. These areas can be thought of as small, food-rich islands in an ocean of warm, poor water. While the jump layer declines, the vital lifting force can only supply warm, food-poor water. The fish is trapped in a death trap and dies. This rarely happens, because... Schools of fish usually react quickly enough to the slightest warming of the water and leave in search of another habitat. Another interesting aspect is that pelagic fish schools remain at much greater depths than usual during El Niño years. In normal years, the fish lives at depths of up to 50 meters. Due to changed feeding conditions, more fish can be found at depths of over 100 meters. The anomalous conditions can be seen even more clearly in the fish ratios. During the 1982-84 El Niño, 50% of fishermen's catch was hake, 30% sardines and 20% mackerel. This ratio is highly unusual, because under normal conditions, hake is found only in isolated cases, and anchovy, which prefers cold water, is usually found in large quantities. The fact that schools of fish either moved to other regions or died is felt most strongly by the local fishing industry. Fishing quotas are becoming significantly smaller, fishermen must adapt to the current situation and either go as far as possible for lost fish, or be content with exotic guests, such as sharks, dorado, etc.

But not only fishermen are affected by changing conditions; animals at the top of the food chain, such as whales, dolphins, etc., also feel this impact. First of all, animals that feed on fish suffer due to the migration of schools of fish; baleen whales, which feed on plankton, have big problems. Due to the death of plankton, whales are forced to migrate to other regions. In 1982-83, only 1,742 whales (fin whales, humpbacks, sperm whales) were sighted off the northern coast of Peru, compared with 5,038 whales observed in normal years. Based on these statistics, we can conclude that whales react very sharply to changed living conditions. Likewise, the empty stomachs of whales are a sign of a lack of food in animals. In extreme cases, whales' stomachs contain 40.5% less food than normal. Some whales that were unable to escape from impoverished regions in time died, but more whales went north, for example to British Columbia, where three times more fin whales were observed than usual during this period.

Along with the negative effects of El Niño, there are a number of positive changes, such as the boom in shell mining. The large number of shells that appeared in 1982-83 allowed the financially affected fishermen to survive. More than 600 fishing boats were involved in the extraction of shells. Fishermen came from far and wide to somehow survive the El Niño years. The reason for the increased population of shells is that they prefer warm water, which is why they benefit from changed conditions. This tolerance to warm water is believed to have been inherited from their ancestors who lived in tropical waters. During El Niño years, shells spread to a depth of 6 meters, i.e. near the coast (they usually live at a depth of 20 meters), which allowed fishermen with their simple fishing gear to obtain shells. This scenario unfolded especially vividly in Paracas Bay. Intensive harvesting of these invertebrate organisms went well for some time. Only at the end of 1985 were almost all of the shells caught and at the beginning of 1986 a multi-month moratorium on shell harvesting was introduced. This government ban was not followed by many fishermen, causing the shellfish population to be almost completely wiped out.

The explosive expansion of barnacle populations can be traced back 4,000 years in fossils, so the phenomenon is not something new or remarkable. Along with shells, corals should also be mentioned. Corals are divided into two groups: the first group are reef-forming corals, they prefer warm, clean water tropical seas. The second group is soft corals, which thrive in water temperatures as low as -2°C off the coast of Antarctica or northern Norway. Reef-building corals are most commonly found off the Galapagos Islands, with even larger populations found in the eastern Pacific Ocean off Mexico, Colombia and the Caribbean. The strange thing is that reef-building corals do not respond well to warming waters, although they prefer warm water. Due to long-term warming of water, corals begin to die. This mass death in some places reaches such proportions that entire colonies die out. The reasons for this phenomenon are still poorly understood; at the moment, only the result is known. This scenario is playing out with greatest intensity in the Galapagos Islands.

In February 1983, reef-building corals near the shore began to bleach severely. By June, this process affected corals at a depth of 30 meters and the extinction of corals began in full force. But not all corals were affected by this process; the most severely affected species were Pocillopora, Pavona clavus and Porites lobatus. These corals died out almost completely in 1983-84; only a few colonies remained alive, which were located under a rocky canopy. Death also threatened soft corals near the Galapagos Islands. Once El Niño passed and normal conditions were restored, the surviving corals began to spread again. Such restoration was not possible for some species of corals, since their natural enemies survived the effects of El Niño much better and then set about destroying the remnants of the colony. The enemy of Pocillopora is the sea urchin, which prefers this type of coral.

Factors like these make it extremely difficult to restore coral populations to 1982 levels. The recovery process is expected to take decades, if not centuries. Similar in severity, even if not so pronounced, the death of corals also occurred in tropical regions near Colombia, Panama, etc. Researchers have found that throughout the Pacific Ocean, 70-95% of corals at depths of 15-20 meters died out during the El Niño period of 1982-83. If you remember about the regeneration time coral reef, then you can imagine the damage El Niño caused.

3.2 Organisms that live on the shore and depend on the sea 03/25/2009

Many seabirds(as well as birds living on guan islands), seals and marine reptiles are considered among the coastal animals that feed in the sea. These animals can be divided into different groups depending on their characteristics. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the type of nutrition of these animals. The easiest way to classify the seals and birds that live on guan islands. They hunt exclusively for pelagic schools of fish, of which they prefer anchovies and cuttlefish. But there are seabirds that feed on large zooplankton, and sea turtles feed on algae. Some species of sea turtles prefer mixed food (fish and algae). There are also sea turtles that do not eat fish or algae, but feed exclusively on jellyfish. Sea lizards specialize in certain types of algae that they can digest digestive system.

If, along with food preferences, we consider diving ability, then animals can be classified into several more groups. Most animals, such as seabirds, sea lions and sea turtles (with the exception of turtles that feed on jellyfish) dive to a depth of 30 meters in search of food, although they are physically capable of diving deeper. But they prefer to stay close to the surface of the water in order to save energy; such behavior is possible only in normal years, when there is enough food. During El Niño years, these animals are forced to fight for their existence.

Seabirds are highly prized along the coast because of their guano, which local residents used as fertilizer because guano contains large amounts of nitrogen and phosphate. Previously, when there were no artificial fertilizers, guano was valued even more highly. And now guano is finding markets; guano is especially preferred by farmers who grow organic products.

21.1 Ein Guanotölpel. 21.2 Ein Guanokormoran.

The decline of guano dates back to the time of the Incas, who were the first to use it. Since the mid-18th century, the use of guano has become widespread. In our century, the process has already gone so far that many birds living on guan islands, due to all sorts of negative consequences, were forced to leave their usual places or were unable to raise their young. Because of this, bird colonies have decreased significantly, and, consequently, guano reserves have practically been exhausted. With the help of protective measures, the bird population was increased to such a size that even some capes on the coast became nesting sites for birds. These birds, which are primarily responsible for the production of guano, can be divided into three species: cormorants, gannets and sea pelicans. At the end of the 50s, their population consisted of more than 20 million individuals, but the El Niño years greatly reduced it. Birds suffer greatly during El Nino. Due to the migration of fish, they are forced to dive deeper and deeper in search of food, wasting such an amount of energy that they cannot make up for it even with rich prey. This is the reason why many seabirds go hungry during El Niño. The situation was especially critical in 1982-83, when the population of seabirds of some species fell to 2 million, and mortality among birds of all ages reached 72%. The reason is the fatal impact of El Niño, due to the consequences of which the birds could not find food for themselves. Also off the coast of Peru, about 10,000 tons of guano were washed into the sea by heavy rains.

El Niño also affects seals, they also suffer due to lack of food. It is especially difficult for young animals, whose food is brought by their mothers, and for old individuals in the colony. They are still or no longer able to dive deeply for fish that have gone far away, they begin to lose weight and die after a short period of time. Young animals receive less and less milk from their mothers, and the milk becomes less and less fat. This happens because adults have to swim further and further in search of fish, and on the way back they spend much more energy than usual, which is why milk becomes less and less. It gets to the point that mothers can exhaust their entire supply of energy and return back without vital milk. The cub sees its mother less and less often and is less and less able to satisfy its hunger; sometimes the cubs try to get enough of other people's mothers, from whom they receive a sharp rebuff. This situation only happens to seals living on the South American Pacific coast. These include some species of sea lions and fur seals, which partially live on the Galapagos Islands.

22.1 Meerespelikane (groß) und Guanotölpel. 22.2 Guanocormorane

Sea turtles, like seals, also suffer from the effects of El Niño. For example, the El Niño-induced Hurricane Pauline destroyed millions of turtle eggs on the beaches of Mexico and Latin America in October 1997. A similar scenario plays out when multi-meter tidal waves arise, which hit the beach with enormous force and destroy eggs with unborn turtles. But not only during the El Niño years (in 1997-98) the number of sea turtles was greatly reduced; their numbers were also affected by previous events. Sea turtles lay hundreds of thousands of eggs on beaches between May and December, or rather, they bury them. Those. Baby turtles are born during periods when El Niño is at its strongest. But the most important enemy of sea turtles was and remains a person who destroys nests or kills grown turtles. Because of this danger, the existence of turtles is constantly under threat, for example, out of 1000 turtles, only one individual reaches the breeding age, which occurs in turtles at 8-10 years.

The described phenomena and changes in marine fauna during the reign of El Niño show that El Niño can have threatening consequences for the life of some organisms. Some will take decades or even centuries to recover from the effects of El Niño (corals, for example). We can say that El Niño brings as much trouble to the animal world as it does to the human world. There are also positive phenomena, for example, a boom associated with an increase in the number of shells. But negative consequences still prevail.

4. Preventive measures in dangerous regions due to El Niño 03/25/2009

4.1 In California/USA

The onset of El Niño in 1997-98 was predicted already in 1997. Since this period, it has become clear to authorities in dangerous areas that it is necessary to prepare for the upcoming El Niño. West coast North America is facing record rainfall and high tidal waves, as well as hurricanes. Tidal waves are especially dangerous along the California coast. Waves over 10 m high are expected here, which will flood the beaches and surrounding areas. Residents of rocky coasts should be especially well prepared for El Niño, as El Niño produces strong and almost hurricane-force winds. The rough seas and tidal waves that are expected at the turn of the old and new year mean that the 20-meter rocky coastline may be washed away and could collapse into the sea!

A coastal resident said in the summer of 1997 that in 1982-83, when El Niño was especially strong, his entire front garden fell into the sea and his house was right on the edge of the abyss. So he fears that the cliff will be washed away by another El Niño in 1997-98 and he will lose his home.

To avoid this terrible scenario, this wealthy man concreted the entire base of the cliff. But not all coastal residents can take such measures, since according to this person, all strengthening measures cost him $140 million. But he was not the only one who invested money in strengthening; the US government gave part of the money. The US government, which was one of the first to take seriously the predictions of scientists about the onset of El Niño, carried out good explanatory and preparatory work in the summer of 1997. With the help of preventive measures, it was possible to minimize losses due to El Niño.

The US government learned good lessons from El Niño in 1982-83, when damage amounted to about 13 billion. dollars. In 1997, the California government allocated about $7.5 million for preventive measures. Many crisis meetings were held where warnings were given about possible consequences future El Niño and calls have been made for preventive

4.2 In Peru

The Peruvian population, which was one of the first to be hit hard by previous El Niños, deliberately prepared for the upcoming El Niño in 1997-98. Peruvians, especially the Peruvian government, learned a good lesson from El Niño in 1982-83, when damage in Peru alone exceeded billions of dollars. Thus, the Peruvian president made sure that funds were allocated for temporary housing for those affected by El Niño.

The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Inter-American Development Bank allocated a loan of $250 million to Peru in 1997 for preventive measures. With these funds and with the help of the Caritas Foundation, as well as with the help of the Red Cross, numerous temporary shelters began to be built in the summer of 1997, shortly before the predicted onset of El Niño. Families who lost their homes during the floods settled in these temporary shelters. For this purpose, areas that are not prone to flooding were selected and construction began with the help of the civil defense institute INDECI (Instituto Nacioal de Defensa Civil). This institute defined the main construction criteria:

The simplest design of temporary shelters that can be built as quickly as possible and in the simplest way.

Use of local materials (mainly wood). Avoid long distances.

The smallest room in a temporary shelter for a family of 5-6 people should be at least 10.8 m².

Using these criteria, thousands of temporary shelters were built throughout the country, each locality had its own infrastructure and was connected to electricity. Because of these efforts, Peru was, for the first time, well prepared for El Niño-induced flooding. Now people can only hope that the floods do not cause more damage than expected, otherwise the developing country of Peru will be hit with problems that will be very difficult to solve.

5. El Niño and its impact on world economy 26.03.2009

El Niño, with its terrifying consequences (Chapter 2), most strongly affects the economies of the countries of the Pacific Ocean, and, consequently, the world economy, since industrial countries are highly dependent on the supply of raw materials such as fish, cocoa, coffee, grains crops, soybeans, supplied from South America, Australia, Indonesia and other countries.

Prices for raw materials are rising, but demand is not decreasing, because... There is a shortage of raw materials on the world market due to crop failures. Due to the shortage of these staple foods, firms that use them as input have to purchase them at higher prices. Poor countries that are heavily dependent on the export of raw materials suffer economically because... due to decreased exports, their economies are disrupted. It can be said that countries affected by El Niño, and these are usually countries with poor populations (South American countries, Indonesia, etc.), find themselves in a threatening situation. The worst situation is for people living on subsistence level.

For example, in 1998, Peru's production of fishmeal, its most important export product, was expected to decline by 43%, which meant a decrease in income of 1.2 billion. dollars. A similar, if not worse, situation is expected in Australia, where the grain harvest has been destroyed due to prolonged drought. In 1998, Australia's grain export loss is estimated to be approximately $1.4 million due to crop failure (16.2 million tons versus 23.6 million tons last year). Australia was not as affected by the effects of El Niño as Peru and other South American countries, since the country's economy is more stable and not so dependent on the grain harvest. The main economic sectors in Australia are manufacturing, livestock, metal, coal, wool, and, of course, tourism. In addition, the Australian continent was not so badly affected by El Niño, and Australia can make up for the losses incurred due to crop failures with the help of other sectors of the economy. But in Peru this is hardly possible, since 17% of Peru's exports are fishmeal and fish oil, and due to the reduction of fishing quotas, the Peruvian economy is suffering greatly. Thus, in Peru the national economy suffers from El Niño, while in Australia it is only the regional economy.

Economic balance of Peru and Australia

Peru Australia

Foreign debt: 22623Mio.$ 180.7Mrd. $

Import: 5307Mio.$ 74.6Mrd. $

Export: 4421Mio.$67Mrd. $

Tourism: (Guests) 216 534Mio. 3Mio.

(income): 237Mio.$ 4776Mio.

Country area: 1,285,216km² 7,682,300km²

Population: 23,331,000 Inhabitants 17,841,000 Inhabitants

GNP: 1890 per capita $17,980 per capita

But you can't really compare industrial Australia with the developing country of Peru. This difference between countries must be kept in mind when looking at individual countries affected by El Niño. In industrial developed countries dies due to natural disasters less people than in developing countries, as there is better infrastructure, food supply and medicine. Also suffering from the impact of El Niño are regions such as Indonesia and the Philippines, already weakened by the financial crisis in East Asia. Indonesia, one of the world's largest cocoa exporters, is suffering multi-billion dollar losses due to El Niño. Using the examples of Australia, Peru, and Indonesia, you can see how much the economy and people suffer due to El Niño and its consequences. But the financial component is not the most important thing for people. It is much more important that we can rely on electricity, medicine and food during these unpredictable years. But this is just as unlikely as protecting villages, fields, arable lands, and streets from severe natural disasters, such as floods. For example, Peruvians, who live mainly in huts, are greatly threatened by sudden rains and landslides. The governments of these countries learned a lesson from the latest manifestations of El Niño and in 1997-98 they met the new El Niño already prepared (Chapter 4). For example, in parts of Africa where drought threatens crops, farmers have been advised to plant certain types of grain crops that are heat-tolerant and can grow without much water. In flood-prone areas, it was recommended to plant rice or other crops that can grow in water. With the help of such measures, it is impossible, of course, to avoid a catastrophe, but it is possible to at least minimize losses. This has only become possible in recent years because it is only recently that scientists have a means by which they can predict the onset of El Niño. The governments of some countries, such as the USA, Japan, France and Germany, after serious disasters that occurred as a result of El Niño in 1982-83, invested heavily in research into the El Niño phenomenon.

Underdeveloped countries (such as Peru, Indonesia and some Latin American countries), which are particularly affected by El Niño, receive support in the form of cash and loans. For example, in October 1997, Peru received a loan of $250 million from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which, according to the Peruvian president, was used to build 4,000 temporary shelters for people who lost their homes during the flood, and to organize a reserve power supply systems.

El Niño also has big influence to the work of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where transactions with agricultural products are made and where huge amounts of money circulate. Agricultural products will only be collected next year, i.e. At the time of concluding the transaction, there are no products as such. Therefore, brokers are very dependent on future weather, they have to estimate future harvests, whether the wheat harvest will be good or whether there will be a crop failure due to the weather. All this affects the price of agricultural products.

During an El Niño year, the weather is even more difficult to predict than usual. That's why some exchanges employ meteorologists to provide forecasts as El Niño develops. The goal is to gain a decisive advantage over other exchanges, which only comes with complete ownership of information. It is very important to know, for example, whether the wheat crop in Australia will fail due to drought or not, since in the year when there is a crop failure in Australia, the price of wheat rises greatly. It is also necessary to know whether it will rain over the next two weeks in Ivory Coast or not, as the long drought will cause cocoa to dry up on the vine.

This kind of information is very important for brokers, and it is even more important to get this information before competitors. That is why meteorologists specializing in the El Niño phenomenon are invited to work. The goal of brokers is, for example, to buy a shipment of wheat or cocoa as cheaply as possible, in order to later sell it at the highest price. The profits or losses resulting from this speculation determine the broker's salary. The main topic of conversation among brokers on the Chicago stock exchange and on other exchanges is the topic of El Niño in a year like this, and not football, as usual. But brokers have a very strange attitude towards El Niño: they are happy about the disasters caused by El Niño, because due to a shortage of raw materials, prices for them rise, therefore, profits also rise. On the other hand, people in El Niño-affected regions are forced to starve or suffer from thirst. Their hard-earned property can be destroyed in a moment by a storm or flood, and stockbrokers use it without any sympathy. In disasters, they only see an increase in profits and ignore the moral and ethical aspects of the problem.

Another economic aspect is the busy (and even overworked) roofing firms in California. Since many people in dangerous areas prone to floods and hurricanes are improving and strengthening their homes, especially the roofs of their homes. This flood of orders has benefited the construction industry as they have a lot of work to do for the first time in a long time. Such often hysterical preparations for the upcoming El Niño in 1997-98 culminated in late 1997 and early 1998.

From the above, it can be understood that El Niño has different effects on the economies of different countries. The strongest impact of El Niño can be seen in fluctuations in commodity prices, and therefore affects consumers around the world.

6. Does El Niño affect the weather in Europe, and is man to blame for this climate anomaly? 03/27/2009

The El Niño climate anomaly is playing out in the tropical Pacific region. But El Niño affects not only nearby countries, but also countries much further away. An example of such a remote influence is South-West Africa, where during the El Niño phase, weather that is completely atypical for the region occurs. Such a distant influence does not affect all parts of the world; El Niño, according to leading researchers, has virtually no effect on the northern hemisphere, i.e. and to Europe.

According to statistics, El Niño affects Europe, but in any case, Europe is not threatened by sudden disasters such as heavy rains, storms or droughts, etc. This statistical effect results in a temperature increase of 1/10°C. A person cannot feel it on himself; this increase is not even worth talking about. It does not contribute to global climate warming, since other factors, such as a sudden volcanic eruption, after which most of the sky is covered with clouds of ash, contribute to cooling. Europe is influenced by another phenomenon similar to El Niño, which plays out in Atlantic Ocean and is critical to weather patterns in Europe. This newly discovered relative of El Niño has been called "the most important discovery of the decade" by American meteorologist Tim Barnett. Many parallels can be drawn between El Niño and its counterpart in the Atlantic Ocean. For example, it is striking that the Atlantic phenomenon is also caused by fluctuations in atmospheric pressure (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)), differences in pressure (high pressure zone near the Azores - low pressure zone near Iceland) and ocean currents ( Gulf Stream).

Based on the difference between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and its normal value, it is possible to calculate what type of winter will be in Europe in future years - cold and frosty or warm and wet. But since such calculation models have not yet been developed, it is currently difficult to make reliable forecasts. Scientists have even more to come research, they have already understood the most important components of this weather carousel in the Atlantic Ocean and can already understand some of its consequences. The Gulf Stream plays a decisive role in the interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere. Today it is responsible for the warm, mild weather in Europe; without it, the climate in Europe would be much more severe than it is now.

If the warm current of the Gulf Stream manifests itself with great force, then its influence increases the difference in atmospheric pressure between the Azores and Iceland. In this situation, an area of ​​high pressure near the Azores and low pressure near Iceland causes a westerly wind drift. The consequence of this is a mild and damp winter in Europe. If the Gulf Stream cools, then the opposite situation occurs: the difference in pressure between the Azores and Iceland is significantly less, i.e. ISAO has a negative value. The consequence is that the westerly wind weakens, and cold air from Siberia can freely penetrate into European territory. In this case, a frosty winter sets in. SAO fluctuations, which indicate the magnitude of the pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland, provide insight into what winter will be like. Whether this method can be used to predict summer weather in Europe remains unclear. Some scientists, including Hamburg meteorologist Dr. Mojib Latif, predict an increase in the likelihood of severe storms and precipitation in Europe. In the future, as the high pressure area off the Azores weakens, "storms that normally rage in the Atlantic" will reach southwestern Europe, says Dr M. Latif. He also suggests that in this phenomenon, as in El Niño, the circulation of cold and warm ocean currents at uneven periods of time plays a large role. There is still a lot that is unexplored about this phenomenon.

Two years ago, American climatologist James Hurrell of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, compared ISAO readings with actual temperatures in Europe over many years. The result was surprising - an undoubted relationship was revealed. For example, a severe winter during the Second World War, a short warm period in the early 50s, and a cold period in the 60s are correlated with ISAO indicators. This study was a breakthrough in the study of this phenomenon. Based on this, we can say that Europe is more influenced not by El Niño, but by its counterpart in the Atlantic Ocean.

In order to begin the second part of this chapter, namely the topic of whether man is to blame for the occurrence of El Niño or how its existence influenced the climate anomaly, we need to look into the past. Great importance has how the El Niño phenomenon has manifested itself in the past to understand whether external influences could have affected El Niño. The first reliable information about unusual events in the Pacific Ocean was received from the Spaniards. After arriving in South America, more precisely in northern Peru, they experienced and documented the effects of El Niño for the first time. An earlier manifestation of El Niño has not been recorded, since the aborigines of South America did not have writing, and relying on oral traditions is at least speculation. Scientists believe that El Niño has existed in its current form since 1500. More advanced research methods and detailed archival material make it possible to study individual manifestations of the El Niño phenomenon since 1800.

If we look at the intensity and frequency of the El Niño phenomenon during this time, we can see that it was surprisingly constant. The period when El Niño manifested itself strongly and very strongly was calculated; this period is usually at least 6-7 years, the longest period is from 14 to 20 years. The strongest El Niño events occur with a frequency ranging from 14 to 63 years.

Based on these two statistics, it becomes clear that the occurrence of El Niño cannot be associated with just one indicator, but rather needs to be considered over a large period of time. These always different time intervals between El Niño manifestations of varying strength depend on external influences on the phenomenon. They are the cause of the sudden occurrence of the phenomenon. This factor contributes to the unpredictability of El Niño, which can be smoothed out using modern mathematical models. But it is impossible to predict the decisive moment when the most important prerequisites for the emergence of El Niño are formed. With the help of computers, it is possible to promptly recognize the consequences of El Niño and warn about its occurrence.

If research today had advanced so far that it would be possible to find out the necessary preconditions for the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon, such as, for example, the relationship between wind and water or atmospheric temperature, it would be possible to say what influence humans have on the phenomenon ( for example, the greenhouse effect). But since this is still impossible at this stage, it is impossible to unambiguously prove or disprove the influence of man on the occurrence of El Niño. But researchers are increasingly suggesting that the greenhouse effect and global warming will increasingly influence El Niño and its sister La Niña. The greenhouse effect, caused by the increased release of gases into the atmosphere (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.), is already an established concept, which has been proven by a number of measurements. Even Dr. Mojeeb Latif from the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg says that due to warming atmospheric air a change in the atmospheric-oceanic El Niño anomaly is possible. But at the same time, he assures that nothing can be said for sure and adds: “to find out about the relationship, we need to study several more El Niños.”

Researchers are unanimous in their assertion that El Niño was not caused by human activity, but is natural phenomenon. As Dr. M. Latif says: “El Niño is part of the normal chaos of a weather system.”

Based on the above, we can say that no concrete evidence of the influence on El Niño can be given; on the contrary, we have to limit ourselves to speculation.

El Niño - final conclusions 03/27/2009

The climatic phenomenon El Niño, with all its manifestations in different parts of the world, is a complex functioning mechanism. It should be especially emphasized that the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere causes a number of processes that are subsequently responsible for the occurrence of El Niño.

The conditions under which the El Niño phenomenon can occur are not yet fully understood. It can be said that El Niño is a globally impacting climate phenomenon not only in the scientific sense of the word, but also has a great impact on the world economy. El Niño has a significant impact on daily life people in the Pacific, many people could be affected by either sudden rainfall or prolonged drought. El Niño affects not only people, but also the animal world. So off the coast of Peru during the El Niño period, anchovy fishing practically disappears. This is because the anchovies were previously caught by numerous fishing fleets, and all it takes is a small negative impulse to throw an already shaky system out of balance. This El Niño effect has the most destructive effect on the food chain, which includes all animals.

If we consider the positive changes along with the negative impact of El Niño, we can establish that El Niño also has its positive aspects. As an example of the positive impact of El Niño, mention should be made of the increase in the number of shells off the coast of Peru, which help fishermen survive in difficult years.

Another positive effect of El Niño is the reduction in the number of hurricanes in North America, which, of course, is very helpful for the people living there. In contrast, other regions experience an increase in the number of hurricanes during El Niño years. These are partly those regions where such natural disasters usually occur quite rarely.

Along with the impact of El Niño, researchers are interested in the extent to which humans influence this climate anomaly. Researchers have different opinions on this question. Well-known researchers suggest that in the future the greenhouse effect will play a role important role in the weather. Others believe that such a scenario is impossible. But since at the moment it is impossible to give an unambiguous answer to this question, the question is still considered open.

Looking at El Niño in 1997-98, it cannot be said that this was the strongest manifestation of the El Niño phenomenon, as previously assumed. In the media shortly before the onset of El Niño in 1997-98, the upcoming period was called "Super El Niño". But these assumptions did not come true, so El Niño in 1982-83 can be considered the strongest manifestation of the anomaly to date.

Links and literature on the topic of El Niño 03/27/2009 Let us recall that this section is of an informative and popular nature, and not strictly scientific, therefore the materials used to compile it are of appropriate quality.