Demography textbook. Natural fertility: concepts and measurement methods The term hypothetical minimum natural fertility was proposed

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5.2. Reproductive behavior: definition, reproductive strategies, main trends recorded inXXIV.

5.3. The evolution of fertility: the essence of the concept, the direction of the evolution of fertility in the transition from an industrial society to an information society

In studying the causes that determine the state and dynamics of the birth rate, demographers have long sought to distinguish between the factors of structure and the factors of behavior of people and families in their cumulative effect on the birth rate. In world demography, several methods of such a distinction are known. All of them in one way or another are based on the use of the concept of natural fertility, proposed in 1961 by the French demographer Louis Henri. Natural fertility is such a fertility, the level of which is determined only by physiological and structural factors, i.e., the state of fertility and the structure of the population by sex, age and marital status, in the complete absence of deliberate birth control using contraceptives and abortions. Natural fertility exists quite realistically in any population (regardless of the prevalence of intra-family fertility restriction measures) in the form of some socio-biological potential, which is realized only partially depending on socio-economic, cultural, psychological and other factors that influence the formation and satisfaction of needs people including children. Of course, in modern populations with a widespread practice of limiting the number of children in the family within the family, the level of natural fertility can only be determined hypothetically. Nevertheless, the measurement of such a hypothetical level of socio-biological potential seems important and even necessary precisely in order to, by comparing the actual birth rate with its socio-biological potential, specific for each real population, to have an idea of the extent of the prevalence among the population of methods of intentional (volitional ) intrafamilial restriction of fertility, the role of the behavioral factor in fertility.

Unlike foreign works, in which attempts are made to determine the maximum natural fertility, the method developed by me in 1971 and proposed below determines the hypothetical minimum natural fertility (hereinafter abbreviated GMER), i. cannot go down without the influence of some circumstances of a negative nature (lower fertility of a significant part of the country's population, a high proportion of spouses living separately for a long time, etc.). On the basis of a specially developed mathematical model and data on the parameters of human fertility, the author determined the minimum marriageable natural fertility rates, which were then used in calculating specific GMER indicators for any real population and a specific time. These coefficients outline the boundary below which the marital birth rate can fall under the influence of only four factors: 1) underestimation of the number of births, 2) a high proportion of infertile marriages, 3) a high proportion of estranged spouses, 4) deliberate birth control in marriage. This alone, i.e., reducing the huge number of factors affecting fertility to just four, makes the method useful.

Table 5.9

The minimum marriageable natural fertility rates adopted in the GMER model as a standard

The age group 15-19 years old is not in table 5.9. This is not an accident. The fact is that in this age group, one-year age-specific fertility rates increase very sharply as women grow older and marry (within this age range). Therefore, the average value of the indicator for the five-year age interval turns out to be too unstable, too dependent on the intragroup structure, a value unsuitable for inclusion in the model. The same applies to ages over 50 years, in which births also occur (and in some peoples, the birth rates in the age groups of women 50-54 and 55-59 years old are still quite significant), especially in conditions of natural fertility. Therefore (and also because of the poor study of fertility in adolescence and in the oldest ages of women), it was decided to combine all fertility in the extreme age groups of women in one correction factor, which is introduced to the calculated hypothetical number of births in conditions of natural fertility. Summarizing the proportion of children born to women under the age of 15 and over 50 in 35 countries of the world that publish the statistics necessary for this calculation, the author derived an average correction index of 1.06.

To calculate the overall GMER coefficient, it is sufficient to have only data on the distribution of married women over five years. age groups. Such data are available in the results of the census of the population of any country. A more accurate calculation can be made if we have age-specific marital fertility rates, but such indicators are calculated and published so far in very few countries. For our country, we have to use population census data, and, accordingly, the calculation is timed to coincide with the critical moment of the census. To calculate the overall GMER coefficient, it is enough to multiply the number of married women by five-year age groups by the corresponding minimum age-specific marriage fertility rates from Table 5.9 and add the number of births to women younger than 15 and older than 50 years to the resulting hypothetical sum of those born to women aged 20-49 years. . For our country and most other countries, this is done by multiplying the hypothetical number of births by a correction index of 1.06. As a result, the total hypothetical number of births (for natural fertility conditions) can only be divided by the corresponding average population and get the total GMER coefficient. The calculation method can be represented as a formula, where all the symbols are clear from the previous text.

An example of calculating the GMER index for Russia for 1988-1989. presented in table 5.10.

Table 5.10

Calculation of the overall GMER coefficient in Russia for 1988-1989.

Age groups	Minimum age-specific marital natural fertility rates (standard) (Fx in fractions of a unit)	Number of married women according to the 1989 census (thousand people) mWx,	Hypothetical number of births (thousand people) gr. 1x gr. 2







		∑ = 6,755,405 x 1.06 = 7,160,729

The total population of Russia according to the 1989 census was 147,400.5 thousand people. Hence ngmer = 7 160 729: 147 400.5 = 48.6‰ (multiplying by 1000 in this case is not necessary, because the digit capacity of the numerator and denominator already contains this multiplication).

The GMER coefficient (or index) characterizes the marriage-age structure of the population in one number in terms of the socio-biological potential of fertility. From this point of view, an increase or decrease in the value of the GMER coefficient indicates, respectively, an improvement or deterioration in the marriage-age structure. The ratio of the actual total fertility rate to the GMER coefficient (for the same population) allows one to obtain an approximate, but quite realistic idea of the degree of realization of the fertility potential. In our example, the value of the GMER coefficient equal to 48.6‰ should be interpreted as follows. In conditions of natural fertility (if there was such a thing in Russia), with the actual age and marriage structures of the population, as they were at the time of the 1989 census, the total fertility rate would have been at least 48.6. In those cases where the registration of births is quite complete, and the amount of infertility and long-term separation of spouses is insignificant, the indicator of the degree of realization of the fertility potential characterizes the minimum (but reliable) of intra-family birth control. In our example, the degree of implementation of GMER in Russia in 1988-1989. was:

15.3 (actual total fertility rate): 48.6 (GMER coefficient) x 100 (to express the quotient as a percentage) = 31.5\%.

In other words, under the conditions of the actual age and marriage structure of our population at the beginning of 1989 (at the time of the population census), the degree of realization of the minimum natural birth rate in our country was only 31.5% of the biologically possible level.

Here I must especially emphasize that GMER cannot be taken literally as a fertility potential that can supposedly be fully realized. No, it's not possible, and it's not necessary, it's not necessary. The potential is very high, too high, it exceeds any modern social needs in the reproduction of the population. Its significance lies only in the fact that it shows the real state of the marriage-age structure and its role as a factor in the level of fertility and, accordingly, the ratio of structural and behavioral factors in their cumulative effect on fertility rates. It also shows the possibilities of increasing the birth rate by intensifying demographic policy and stimulating the population to increase the birth rate (if it is recognized as too low).

Let us consider the dynamics of total fertility rates (TFRs), GER coefficients and the degree of implementation of GER over a long period of time in our history. In the absence of data for Russia, I found it possible to use data for the Russian Empire and the USSR for some periods (Table 5.11).

The dynamics of indicators demonstrates the evolution of the birth rate in Russia throughout the 20th century. The difference between the USSR and the current territory of Russia should not bother us much, it cannot be fundamentally large (although, probably, there is, and we must reckon with this). One can clearly see how the total fertility rate decreased and to what extent, due to what factors this decline occurred. The dynamics of the GMER coefficient reflects the change in the birth rate due to changes only in the marriage and age structure of the population, and the index of the degree of implementation of the GMER reflects the change in the birth rate due to its intra-family control.

At the end of the XIX century. the value of the total fertility rate exceeded the value of the GMER index (respectively 49.9 and 47.7\%o), the degree of implementation of the GMER was more than 100\%, equal to 104.7\%. This means that the degree of intrafamilial birth control in Russia at that time was close to zero. But that doesn't mean it didn't exist at all. Let us recall the observation of S. A. Novoselsky, who recorded the beginning of the rapid spread of “neo-Malthusianism” in Russia, not only in cities, but also in the countryside. However, the GMER is a rather rough tool that captures only a fairly tangible scale of intrafamilial birth control. And what happens above the minimum does not bother him.

Strange as it may seem, the marriage and age structure of the Russian population changed little throughout the century, with the exception, of course, of individual tragic upheavals that affected the entire people's life, including family life.

A sharp decrease in the GMER coefficient in the first post-war period is noticeable. In 1948-1949, according to the calculations of A. B. Sinelnikov, it was equal to 43.3‰, probably during the war years it was even lower (long-term separation of the spouses). And a sharp drop in the GMER coefficient in the first half of the 1990s is also noticeable. because of the decline in marriage.

But, perhaps, the most important thing is the steady decrease in the degree of implementation of the GMER throughout the 20th century, which by now, more precisely, by the time of the 1994 microcensus, has reached a fantastically low level of 20.9%. And among the urban population, even 18.8%. I once thought that 25% is the lower limit for reducing the degree of implementation of GMER and it cannot decrease below. It turned out it could. Yes, and 25.7% of the rural population is also no less impressive. These figures speak of mass, intensive, intra-family (more precisely, individual) birth control, covering the vast majority of the population of Russia, regardless of the level of education, ethnicity, and any other cultural attributes.

A comparison of the GMER coefficients of the urban and rural population shows that at the end of the 19th century. (and probably until the mid-1920s, before the start of Stalinist industrialization and collectivization), the marriage and age structure of the rural population was better than that of the urban population. The GMER coefficient was, respectively, 48.6‰ for the rural population and 41.2‰ for the urban population. But already in 1926-1927. the picture is reversed. The GMER coefficient increases for the urban population to 50.6‰ and decreases, though not much, to 46.7‰, for the rural population. And since that time, the GMER coefficient has been consistently lower for the rural population than for the urban population. The reasons are not a secret: collectivization, dispossession, the ruin of the peasantry, the flight of peasant youth to the cities, the forcible deportation of peasants to the “great construction sites” of the Gulag (in the vast expanses of which new cities rose, requiring cheap labor). The years of war are undoubtedly also in the greater! degrees were reflected in the structure of the rural population than the urban one, but there are no necessary source materials for calculating the corresponding indicators.

Table 5.11

Crude Fertility Rates (TFRs), Hypothetical Minimum Natural Fertility (HMER) and Degree of GER Implementation in Russia


	ppm
All population










Urban population







Rural population

Using the GMER index, it can be shown that the main role in the decline in fertility belongs to behavioral factors, and not structural ones.

But you can still deepen the analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate using the GMER coefficient using the index method.

In 1978, the demographer Vladimir Nikolaevich Arkhangelsky proposed: a simple system of indices that allows decomposing the change in the usual total birth rate into a number of structural components and isolating the impact of each of them on the change in the overall birth rate. These components are as follows: 1) the age structure of the female reproductive contingent; 2) the level of marital status of women; 3) the degree of implementation of the GMER (i.e., a minimum of intra-family birth control!). The index system looks like this:

where n1 and n2 are the actual total fertility rates at the start (1) and end (2) of each period; minimum age-specific natural fertility rates; and proportion of women in each age group | "x" in the composition of the female reproductive population aged 15-49 (in shares | units); and the proportion of married women in each age group; And

The birth rate that develops in a particular territory, in a particular period of time and is measured by indicators is a function of two variables - the demographic structure of the population and reproductive behavior.

reproductive behavior is a system of actions and relations mediating the birth of a certain number of children in a family (and also outside of marriage).

The normative approach is designed to clear the significance of demographic indicators from the influence of changes in the age structure or gender and age intensity of demographic processes. This approach is associated with the idea of the existence of a certain standard of age-specific marital fertility, not limited by any intervention in the reproductive cycle. Unlimited birth rate natural fertility(L. Henri).

J. Graunt 17th century maximum birth rate- 1000 inhabitants, 300 women of reproductive age, a child every two years - 150 ‰.

L. Henry - the maximum is the real birth rate in populations with high level fertility (Africa).

E. Cole , the standard of natural fertility - real fertility, with a high level of socio-economic development, high sanitary and hygienic culture, total marriage, no interference in reproductive behavior, a short period of breastfeeding, low intrauterine and infant mortality. religious sect Hutterites became the basis for the standard of natural fertility.

E. Cole developed three birth rates - general, marital, non-marital and marital structure index.

Hypothetical minimum of natural fertility (V.A.Borisov) - it is necessary to use as a standard not a maximum, but a minimum (calculated using a mathematical model) to make sure that the marriage birth rate does not fall below this minimum under normal sanitary conditions. GMER is the difference between expected and actual values the absolute number of births and the total fertility rate.

At the present stage, reproductive behavior is not natural, it includes a large amount of deliberate restriction. The gap between real and natural fertility, the comparison of real and natural characterizes the normative approach.

Empirical approach(K. Davis, J. Blake) does not assume the a priori existence of any standard, it comes from the opposite - based on the level of real, fixed birth rate statistics, it reconstructs, restores natural birth rate ( fertility).

Various factors affecting the birth rate (1950s):

Factors affecting sex life

Factors regulating the formation and disintegration of marriage unions during the fertile period of life
Factors that determine sexuality within marriages

Factors affecting conception
Factors that determine pregnancy and successful delivery

It was only in the 1980s that this scheme was filled empirically. J. Bongaarts created a simple mathematical model fertility, which contains a system of indices that are external variables of reproductive behavior. He identified the main factors, each of which corresponded to the index.

Bongaarts Factors

Share of women in permanent marriage
Use of contraception
Artificial abortions
Postpartum amenorrhea (defined by duration of breastfeeding)
Sterility (indicator - proportion of women without children by 50)

On this moment the average maximum fertility per woman of reproductive age is 18.6 live births.

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

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Lecture plan
5.1. Fertility: definition, indicators; the balance of natural and regulated births in modern society.
5.2. Reproductive behavior: definition, reproductive strategies, main trends recorded in the 21st century.
5.3. The evolution of fertility: the essence of the concept, the direction of the evolution of fertility in the transition from an industrial society to an information one.

5.1. Fertility: definition, indicators. The balance of natural and regulated births in modern society

fertility- a mass statistical process of childbearing in the aggregate of people that make up a generation, or in the aggregate of generations - in the population.
Correlation between the terms "fertility" and "fertility" Birth rate as a process, consists of mass individual cases birth, but not limited to them.
Fertility - biological ability to the conception and birth of living children (for a woman, a man, a married couple). It is determined by the internal (biological) parameters of the health of a woman, a man, a married couple, partners in a civil marriage.
Fertility is a social process, the realization of the ability to bear children. It is determined by external factors: social, cultural, historical, economic. It obeys the action of social forces and laws, unfolds within certain, historically specific boundaries, set by the action of biological, physiological factors.
fertility range. The theoretically possible range of fertility is very wide: from infertility to 35 births in singletons over the entire reproductive period.
Average species fertility a person is 15 - 16 births per woman during the reproductive period.
However real number of births per woman in the economically developed countries of the world today is 1.5. This is almost ten times, i.e. an order of magnitude less than the biological ability to bear children. The reasons for this difference (the difference between the biological ability to bear children and the realization of this ability in practice) lie in the conditions of social life and reflect the transition from natural models of childbearing to artificial (regulated). This transition is due to the historical and economic stage of development modern society and is an objective regularity.
reproductive period- the time interval from menarche, which in modern conditions occurs at 12-14 years, to menopause, which occurs at 45-50 years. Within the reproductive period, two time intervals are distinguished, which are important from the standpoint of social demography.
Protogenetic interval- this is the time between marriage (more precisely, the formation of a marriage union) and the birth of the first child. It is determined by biosocial factors: the moment of conception (before or after marriage) and fertility. Fertility is the frequency of pregnancy in a woman who is fertile in the first month of regular sexual intercourse, provided that contraceptives are not used. In modern women, fertility corresponds to a value of 0.2. This means that under the above conditions, pregnancy occurs in 20 out of 100 women.
Intergenetic interval is the average length of time between successive births. It depends not only and not so much on biological factors and fertility, how much depends on socio-psychological factors, namely, the financial situation of the family, housing conditions, professional status, career prospects, spouses' decisions regarding the number of desired children, etc. In some cases, the opinion of others about the advisability of having the next child becomes key also the readiness of interested persons (grandparents, relatives, social service workers) to support materially, financially and organizationally the birth and subsequent socialization of the second and third child in the family.
Early sexualmaturation, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), refers to the situation of the onset of menarche at 8 years of age and earlier.
It is believed that the average species fertility of a person does not exceed 15-16 births per woman for the entire reproductive period. In modern economically developed countries, about 10-15% of married couples are absolutely infertile (i.e., have zero chances of having a child) and the same number are relatively (i.e., have low fertility).
It should be emphasized that, according to age criteria, the biological ability to bear children and social readiness for birth and upbringing, i.e. socialization, children do not match completely. This pattern is valid for both the lower and upper limits of the reproductive period.
The lower limit of the reproductive period corresponds to the onset of puberty and the physiological ability to conceive. But this age does not correspond to the social maturity of the young organism. Puberty comes before the end of school education, precedes the acquisition of a profession that makes it possible to support oneself and one's offspring, comes before the marriageable age is reached, approved by moral standards, religious and ethnic traditions, permitted by law. The appearance of children in persons who are in the period between biological and social maturity is critical in terms of their subsequent successful socialization and, in the case of a mass phenomenon, aggravates the demographic burden falling on the able-bodied population of the territory.
The upper limit of the reproductive period, approaching the age of 50 for a woman, even taking into account the achievements of modern medical technologies, also seems to be problematic in terms of the subsequent socialization of newborn children. It is known that the age of 55 corresponds to the end of a woman's professional career and the acquisition of the right to retire by age. In addition, a number of professions are characterized by an earlier onset retirement age(harmful industries, some creative specialties, length of service for medical and pedagogical workers, etc.). Even with the preservation of health and professional activity, it is more difficult for a woman in adulthood to ensure a sufficient level of income necessary for a decent maintenance of herself and her child, as well as for the child to receive the necessary upbringing and education. This thesis becomes more justified if we take into account the following circumstances. First, the complete socialization of children with their coming of age, receiving higher education and acquiring a competitive profession is a long process that lasts for 23-25 years. Secondly, a woman who has given birth to a child in adulthood and is married to a man no younger than herself in age runs the risk of raising a child in an incomplete family, because the mortality rate for men is significantly different from that of women. Thus, according to 2001 data, the average life expectancy of men in the Russian Federation is 59.0 years, which is 13 years less than the average life expectancy of women and only slightly exceeds the upper limit of the reproductive period of the latter.
Consequently, the birth of "late" children, as well as "early" ones, does not contribute to the social stability of society, increases the demographic load and reduces the potential of the population to be competitive in the global labor market. Socio-demographic features of the reproductive period are schematically depicted in Figure 16.

Rice. 16. Critical periods for childbearing in terms of their subsequent socialization

Let's summarize the above. Fertility - is the potential for childbearing, and the birth rate - the embodiment of this possibility in a real society. The presence of freedom of choice and will, the fusion of biological, psychological and social motives of behavior, the conflict of personal and public interests, and much more determine the real readiness of the population to continue themselves in offspring. This willingness, along with the actual socio-economic and financial resources education and socialization of the younger generation underlies the reproductive behavior of the inhabitants of the planet, individual countries and territories.
Of the socially significant problems of fertility, which reduce the level of social stability, increase the demographic burden and reduce the competitiveness of future generations, there are several main ones. This is the birth of children in minors, the mass birth of children in women of mature age, the imbalance between natural and regulated births, between responsible and irresponsible parenting.
All of the above phenomena have unidirectional social consequences. They naturally increase the demographic load of the population, increase the risk of social orphanhood and insufficient socialization of the younger generation. All this is fraught with the formation of an uncompetitive society in the medium term. To avoid such negative phenomena and their consequences, it is necessary to carry out targeted work with young people, developing in them stable skills of responsible behavior and conscious parenthood.
It is fundamentally important to understand that fertility patterns not only depend on the social infrastructure of society, but also change as a result of their dynamics. It is not surprising that the birth rate of the primitive, agrarian, industrial, industrial and information society is different. These differences are social in nature. They are due to the different social infrastructure of society, the different terms of socialization of young people, as well as differences in the actual needs of the population and the objective probability of full satisfaction of the latter.
For the purposes of social management, the historically increasing gap between the level of natural (natural) and artificial fertility is important, as well as the recognition of the fact that our modern society is a society of artificial (regulated) fertility. And in the regulation of the birth rate, the subjective factor plays an increasingly important role - the decision of the spouses (marriage partners) regarding the birth or refusal to have a child. Given the rapid process of differentiation Russian society according to social, economic and financial criteria, it must be emphasized that the models of birth control in different strata and social groups manifest themselves in different ways. Today they not only reflect the level of development of the social infrastructure of society as a whole, but also the specifics youth subculture, features of stereotypes of group behavior of certain ethnic groups and socially unequal segments of the population.
Under natural fertility understand marital fertility in the absence of any interference in the reproductive cycle. This unrestricted "spontaneous" birth rate became the subject of special demographic studies in the 1960s. last century, when the French demographer L. Henri (L. Henri, 1961) proposed the term "natural fertility". However, natural fertility cannot be considered an exclusively biological phenomenon. Despite its name (natural or natural), it socially conditioned and depends on the age of marriage, the duration of breastfeeding and other behavioral factors.
The desire of mankind to measure the value of natural fertility has a longer history than the introduction of this term into the theory of demography. So, back in the 17th century, J. Graunt proposed his own algorithm for calculating the possible maximum birth rate. J. Graunt proceeded from the fact that in his contemporary society, for every 1000 inhabitants, there were 300 women of reproductive age (from 15 to 49 years old), capable of giving birth, taking into account the period of gestation and feeding, with a frequency of “one child in two calendar years”. Based on these assumptions, it is easy to calculate that the value of the total fertility rate, which will be 150 ‰, or 150 births per 1000 population per year.
Two centuries later, in the 19th century, the indicated maximum birth rate was adjusted downward, taking into account the real conditions of life in an industrial society. This was done by I. Wappeus, designating as a theoretically possible, but practically unattainable, maximum birth rate equal to 100%.
In the 20th century, efforts to find a real birth rate corridor were intensified. L. Henri proposed to titrate the birth rates, using as a standard the birth rate of some African countries, which were distinguished by particularly high birth rates at the turn of the 1950s and 1960s. the last century.
Around the same time, E. Cole substantiated a different approach to choosing a birth standard. He noted the incompatibility of the lifestyle of the African population and the population of economically developed countries in terms of such indicators as the level of socio-economic development, sanitary and hygienic culture, intrauterine and infant mortality, and sex and age birth rates. E. Cole suggested taking as the standard of the 20th century the birth rate of the Hutterite sect, whose members were characterized by a high level of socio-economic development, a high sanitary and hygienic culture, universal marriage, a complete lack of contraception, relatively short period breastfeeding, as well as low levels of intrauterine and infant mortality. As a result of his work, E. Cowell considered it necessary to separate general, marital and extramarital births. For the calculation, they proposed the appropriate formulas. In the history of demography, these indicators entered as Cowell indices(general fertility index, marital fertility index, extramarital fertility index). In addition, a nomogram was built - a graph that reflects the age-specific dynamics of natural fertility among the population of economically developed territories in the middle of the 20th century. This chart is known as the Hutterite birth standard. It is shown in fig. 17.

Rice. 17. Standards of natural fertility and actual age-specific fertility of the population of Russia in 1998 (Cited in: V.M. Medkov, 2003. P. 229, Fig. 5.2.)

A logical continuation of the above works was research aimed at determining the lower limit of natural fertility among residents of industrialized countries. The assessment of the minimum values of natural fertility was carried out by V.A. Borisov based on the analysis of mass factual data on the example of the population whose living conditions are within the sanitary norm, but within it are considered the least favorable. The standard identified on this basis corresponds to the minimum level of natural marital fertility, below which it cannot fall under normal sanitary conditions in the absence of any extreme socio-economic (force majeure) circumstances. This standard is known as hypothetical minimum natural birth standard or GMER. The age dynamics of this standard is also shown in fig. 17.
It is noteworthy that the real birth rate in Russia at the end of the 20th century (the period of perestroika and socio-economic reforms) significantly differs downward from both the Hutterite standard and the GMER standard for all age groups (see Fig. 17). This is proof that in real life modern Russia realized not natural, but artificial (regulated) fertility. The proposed thesis is documented by the statistical data of Table. 6.
The data in Table 6 indicate that in all periods of observation, i.e. throughout the second half of the 20th century, in Russia the reproductive potential of the population was not fully realized. Even the hypothetical minimum natural birth rate (GMER) exceeded the real birth rate in the country (RFR) by several times: from 1.7 times for the rural population in 1958-1959. up to 5.3 times for the urban population in 1993-1994.

Table 6
Crude Fertility Rates (TFRs), Hypothetical Minimum Natural Fertility (HMER) and Degree of GER Implementation in Russia
(Cited in: V.M. Medkov, 2003. P. 228, Table 5.7.)

			OKR/GMER 100%
All population





Urban population





Rural population

The stability of the phenomenon of exceeding the GMER of the real birth rate indicates that in the Russian society, the reproductive behavior of the population is more oriented towards external socio-economic factors and, to a lesser extent, towards the biological instincts of procreation. In other words, the birth rate in Russian society in the second half of the 20th century is not a natural, but an artificial birth rate.
Artificial (controlled) birth rate - this is the one that is formed under the influence of the active use of contraceptives by the population. It is this variant of fertility that is typical today not only for Russia, but also for all economically developed countries of the world. In addition, it is characteristic of most developing countries that have chosen rapid economic development as their national priorities, such as China. Among other things, the new model of fertility (regulated) is manifested in a change in the age at which the first child is born and in the balance between marital and out-of-wedlock births. Both of these figures show a general upward trend. Rice. 18 and 19 illustrate this thesis on the example of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Quoted in: M. Klupt, 2008, pp. 99-100, fig. 3.4 and fig. 3.5.).

Rice. 18. Average age of a woman at the birth of her first child in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, years. Gray boxes are 1994, dark boxes are 2004.
Source: Eurostst Release 29/2006, March 2006

Fig.19. Share of illegitimate births in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, %. Gray boxes are 1990, dark boxes are 2004. Sources: Demoscope Weekly; Eurostst Release 136/2005, October 2005

The options for birth control are quite diverse. They constitute a whole group of socio-biological phenomena that lie in the range between fertility and fertility, between childlessness and childlessness. This sterility, infertility, infertility, childlessness. The main variants of these phenomena are described below. The subordination of the main variants of controlled birth is presented in the following diagram (Fig. 20).

Rice. 20. Relationship between various forms fertility

Let us briefly outline the significant differences between the demographic concepts shown in the diagram. Fertility is the ability to reproduce offspring. Sterility is the inability to conceive. Infertility is the inability to reproduce offspring. Infertility is the absence of births. Childlessness - the absence of children in the family (may be associated with the early death of children). A detailed description of each of the above forms of fertility can be found in the textbook by V.M. Medkova "Fundamentals of Demography", Rostov-on-Don: "Phoenix", 2003. For the purposes of social management and organization of work with youth, the key is the fact that in the world of high technologies, the development of artificial insemination methods simultaneously with the increase in the terms of socialization and professional training For young people, conflicts related to resolving issues of regulated infertility of married and extramarital couples are becoming increasingly relevant. While the issues of sterility of married couples with the desire of spouses to have offspring are becoming less dramatic and are increasingly finding their positive medical resolution, the noted demographic transition is fundamentally changing the need for social birth control technologies. It changes the target audience, and also dramatically increases the number of those to whom these technologies will be addressed. So, if before the demographic transition, the tasks of sociologists included creating a favorable atmosphere in society for the preservation of childless families and the adoption of adopted children by them; now these tasks have been supplemented by the need to create public opinion who positively perceives the ideas of planned responsible parenthood, everyday contraception, prolonged sexual abstinence in the absence of marriage and (or) long-term separation of spouses (business trips, internships, rotational work, etc.). Comparing the tasks of social managers before and after the demographic transition in fertility, we will clearly notice that they differ from each other not only in content and target audience. We note that they are focused on different cohorts of the population: the leveling of social problems of sterility is focused on married couples with a sufficient level of social adaptation, and the formation of regulated infertility is aimed at a wide audience with different social, marital and age characteristics. In addition, the first audience is relatively small (no more than 10% of married couples are absolutely sterile), while the second audience is extremely large and practically covers the entire population of the country of reproductive age.
special attention The circumstance that the social technologies demanded before and after the demographic transition is also deservedly correlates differently with the natural instinct of procreation. Thus, social technologies aimed at smoothing out the socio-psychological problems of childlessness and encouraging adoption cases are consistent with the natural instincts of a person. In contrast, technologies for the formation of regulated and planned infertility (sexual abstinence and responsible contraception) are in conflict with the natural need to continue oneself in offspring. In addition, calls for planned births and responsible parenthood do not always correspond to the ethnic traditions of the titular nationalities of the Russian Federation and the basic provisions of traditional religions. On fig. 21 shows a diagram that illustrates the vector of transformation of natural fertility in a classic nuclear family in modern society.

Rice. 21. The influence of natural and artificial fertility on the continuity of generations and the social stability of society

The diagram reflects the impact of new medical technologies that translate the problems of sterility, civil and same-sex marriages into problems of infertility and foster parenthood. The diagram shows how the natural birth rate model, interacting with the artificial birth rate models, creates new socio-biological phenomena and modifies the basis of the stability of any society, namely, the generation continuity format.
In concluding this section, the following should be emphasized. The demographic transition from natural to artificial birth models is accompanied by an increase in intragenerational and intergenerational conflict, leads to an increase in the severity of anomies (ideological conflicts) in the mass and group consciousness, and actualizes the confrontation between the secular and religious worldview among residents of industrialized territories. This pattern is non-subjective. It is objective and reflects the discrepancy between the level of development of industrial technologies and the level of development of public consciousness and the associated set of traditionally supported stereotypes of reproductive behavior. The discovery of this pattern allows us to conclude that an unbalanced birth rate, an imbalance between the models of natural and artificial (regulated) births in society creates a threat to the stability of society in the medium and long term. These circumstances are forcing social demographers to reconsider a number of technologies and appeals, to adapt the concepts of demographic policy to the real conditions of society. Under these conditions, the organization of work with youth requires specialists in the field of social management to be extremely precise in their work, to pay increased attention to the basic and urgent needs of young people, and to be able to organize social management using soft, non-directive methods.
Used to measure fertility scorecard , which allow determining the general level of fertility, its dynamics, intensity and magnitude in various cohorts of the population (socio-economic and demographic groups).
Absolute number of births shows how many children were born in the population in a certain period of time (usually a year). This indicator captures the scale of the demographic phenomenon, but does not make it possible to compare different territories with each other, and, consequently, to adopt the experience of the social and demographic policy of one territory by another if these two territories differ significantly from each other in size and population density. To assess the comparability of demographic events and make a decision on the legality of transferring the experience of social management of one territory to another, relative indicators are used.
total fertility rate(CBR) is the number of births per year per 1000 population. The ratio is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population over a period, usually a year. The calculation of the indicator is carried out according to the formula:
N
n = x 1000 (‰),
P T
where n is the total fertility rate;
N is the number of live births;
P is the average population for the calculation period;
T is the length of the calculation period in years.

Value scaleCBR: values less than 16 ‰ are considered low,
in the range from 16 to 24 ‰ - medium, from 25 to 29 ‰ - above average, from 30 to 40 ‰ - high, more than 40 ‰ - very high.
The total fertility rate in Russia in the 80s. of the last century (before the start of socio-economic reforms in the country) was at the level of 16 - 17 ‰ and corresponded to the average values of the indicator, in the 90s. at the peak of perestroika events, it dropped to the level of 8 - 9 ‰, i.e. to the low value range. The dynamics of the indicator in the period from 1997 to 2004 is presented in Table. 7. As follows from the table, during the period of transition to a market economy, the birth rate in the Russian Federation is characterized by instability in the values of its general coefficient. The indicator demonstrates slight fluctuations in the period from 1997 to 2000, an upward trend in 2001-2003, then to a decrease in 2004. Thus, a wave-like dynamics is revealed with periods of increase and decrease in the values of the indicator. The minimum values were recorded in 1999, i.e. in the year that followed the financial instability of 1998. The highest figures were recorded in 2003, when the consequences of financial shocks smoothed out and the attention of the Government of the Russian Federation to demographic problems increased.
Table 7
Birth rate dynamics in Russia for the period from 1997 to 2004

	Birth rate, ‰

The presented data once again confirm the idea that the biological ability to bear children and its real embodiment in the social behavior of people differ significantly from each other, and the difference between them is determined not only by historical epochs, but also by narrower time frames, within which the controlling factors are financial and economic conditions of people's lives. In addition, the above facts testify to the high dynamism of fertility rates in Russia and indicate the need for a mobile transformation of social technologies for managing fertility, taking into account the financial situation in the country.
Speaking about the planning of social management technologies based on demographic indicators, it must be emphasized that conclusions based only on general coefficients may be false, since they do not take into account the complexity of demographic structures and processes. In particular, it must be remembered that the values of all general indicators, including the general birth rate, depend on the age structure of the population and the intensity of the demographic process under study in the past. Therefore, when constructing a demographic policy and monitoring the effectiveness of this policy, it is advisable, in addition to the general birth rate, to analyze special and particular birth rates. Special and private indicators clarify the contribution of individual groups of the population to the process of fertility.
Special birth rate is calculated in relation to that part of the population that "produces" births, i.e. only to the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years). The demographic situation can be described in more detail using the age-specific fertility rate.
Age-specific fertility rate(ASFR) is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of a certain age to the average annual number of women of a given age.
Partial fertility rates give even more accurate and targeted characteristics. For example, it is known that the frequency of childbearing in married and unmarried women is not the same. For a separate assessment of marital and out-of-wedlock birth rates, partial coefficients are used.
The marital birth rate is defined as the ratio of the number of children born in a marriage to the average number of married women.
The extramarital birth rate is the ratio of the number of children born out of wedlock to the average number of unmarried women.
For the purposes of social management, those birth rates that characterize the reproductive potential of the population and the degree of its realization are of particular importance; reflect the prospects for population growth in the short, medium and long term. Indicators of this kind include the index of children, the total fertility rate.
Coefficient (index) of children - the ratio of the number of children aged 0-4 years to the number of women of reproductive (15-49 years) age. In Russia, the index of children according to the 1989 census was 0.747, including 0.682 in cities and 9.73 in rural areas. For comparison: Kenya - 1,004; Afghanistan - 0.895; China - 0.381; USA - 0.285; Germany - 0.191. Comparison of foreign indicators with Russian ones reveals an important pattern: the indicators of the Russian Federation are characterized by greater similarity with the data of developing countries than with the indicators of countries developed in economic terms. This indicates that a simple copying of social management technologies in Europe, America and China on Russian territories does not seem possible. On the contrary, the transfer to Russian reality of the experience of social management of countries with a developed market economy should be carried out carefully, thoughtfully, with full consideration of the real demographic situation.
Totalfertility rate(TFR) characterizes the average number of births per woman in a hypothetical generation over her entire life. Total coefficients above 4.0 are considered high, less than 2.15 - low, population stability is observed at 2.15-2.2. In table. Figure 8 shows the geographical features of fertility in the modern world: countries with three ranges of TFR values (below 2.0; ranging from 2 to 3 and above 3) are highlighted.
Table 8
Geographic features fertility
(total fertility rate - number of births per woman)

Obviously, the countries of the first group are in a situation where the number of parents is not reproduced in the generations of their descendants. For the countries of the second group, the reproduction of the population in a constant number from generation to generation is characteristic. The countries of the third group progressively increase in their number from generation to generation. It is logical to assume that the most dynamic demographic policy should be carried out in countries that are not stable in their numbers and demonstrate its rapid dynamics both downward and upward, since it is in these countries that the transformation of reproductive behavior patterns is carried out at the fastest pace. It is noteworthy that low birth rates are demonstrated by countries that are economically developed and rapidly developing, i.e. those where priority is given to the economic development of the territory.
Concluding the paragraph, we can draw the following conclusion: fertility is set by the biological framework of fertility, but is realized in society and is limited by social circumstances. The totality of natural instincts, individual desires and social capabilities of an individual form the final result - the reproductive behavior of the population, as well as the stereotypes of the reproductive behavior of individual strata and groups of the population.

Reproductive behavior − a system of actions and relationships, as well as psychological states of the individual associated with the birth or refusal to give birth to children of any order in marriage or out of marriage.
Obviously, reproductive behavior is one of the types of social behavior. In addition to individual needs, its implementation reflects (directly and indirectly) ethnic, religious traditions, group stereotypes of behavior of various social groups and strata of the population.
The reproductive behavior of a person in society differs significantly from his biological ability to fertilize, bear healthy offspring and give birth to live children. Potentially great opportunities for social management lie in this discrepancy between biological inclinations and socially determined variants of reproductive behavior. Often, especially in conditions of economic stagnation and the global financial crisis, the instinct of procreation forms the basis of social aggression, serves as the basis for the development international terrorism. More detailed information about demographic disproportions in society as objective causes and sources of the socio-psychological roots of modern terrorism can be obtained on the Internet. For this topic, it is important to note that there is a large distance between the ability to conceive and actual fertility. And every person goes through this distance in his life, filling it with his own decisions on how to build his life, the life of loved ones and the fate of future generations. In this struggle of instincts, freedom of choice and will, there is a huge field of activity for a thoughtful social manager. In order to successfully cope with complex management tasks in the field of demographic policy among young people, it is necessary to know the structure of demographic behavior. The main links of this structure are listed below.
Structure of reproductive behavior: reproductive needs - attitudes - motives - interests - plans - decisions - actions - results of actions.
In demography, the expression of reproductive behavior is the average number of children in the family and the average number of children, born of a woman throughout her life, as well as the proportion between the number of ideal, desired and real children in the family. Information about this proportion is obtained as a result of special sociological research and sample surveys dedicated to the conduct of general population censuses. The gap between the number of ideal, desired and real children in a family makes it possible to indirectly assess the degree of satisfaction of the biological and social needs of the population, to draw a conclusion about the harmony or, conversely, disharmony of reproductive behavior, to detect the phenomenon of insoluble conflicts (anomies) in the structure of life scenarios of the population as a whole or its individual social groups and strata. Assessment of the degree of harmony of reproductive behavior is one of the important foundations for the prevention of abnormal behavior of young people and the development of successful technologies for the social management of territories aimed at consolidating society. To create effective technologies of this type, it is necessary to take into account the relationship between reproductive behavior and environmental factors. These primarily include the following factors:

social affiliation of people (social norms, which may vary depending on social status, income, occupation, profession of the respondents, the level of their workload, lack of free time, etc.; family and religious traditions; the level of education);
territorial differences in reproductive behavior (geographical and ethnic features, differentiation of fertility in settlements different type and so on.).

Territorial and ethnic differences in the reproductive behavior of Russians were clearly revealed by the results of the 2002 general population census. It was established that low birth rates were registered in the North-Western and Central, and high - in the Volga-Vyatka, North Caucasus and Ural economic regions. Low birth rate is typical for Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians. Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Tuvans, Yakuts, indigenous peoples of the North and the North Caucasus are characterized by a high birth rate. It can be said that in modern conditions on the territory of the Russian Federation there are simultaneously two strategies of reproductive behavior, studied in detail by population biology (Table 9).
Table 9
Basic Reproductive Behavior Strategies

signs	Types of strategies
signs	k-strategy	r-strategy
reproduction speed	slow
Dependence of the rate of reproduction on the density of the community	Speed depends on density	Velocity does not depend on density
Number of descendants	Few descendants	Many descendants
Tendency to migrate	Settle slowly, habitat is stable	Spread widely, migrate rapidly, sometimes in every generation
Ability to adapt to new environmental conditions	Difficult, demonstrate high specialization to selected living conditions	High easily adapt to new conditions

When implementing demographic policy in the territories of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to fully take into account the diversity of the reproductive behavior of the population and choose the optimal technologies for social management, based on the social, territorial and ethnic specifics of the reproductive behavior of their inhabitants.
The economically developed countries of the modern world are characterized by a demographic transition in the reproductive behavior of their inhabitants in the form of a rejection of large families and the demand for a small family, which leads to a narrowed reproduction of the population and a decrease in the population in dynamics. The relationship between the birth rate and the level of historical development of society explores a special area of historical demography. The revealed relationships are reflected in the concept of the evolution of fertility.

Vologda and Cherepovets

Districts

Average

Wishlist

expected

Wishlist

expected

Wishlist

expected

The evolution of fertility- this is a change in birth rates associated with the socio-economic development of society. Historically recorded natural process declining birth rate population with the development of productive forces, intellectual technologies, the involvement of women in social labor, the lengthening of the period of socialization and vocational training and the formation of the younger generation. In the transition from an agrarian to an industrial society, access to the means of subsistence for the majority of the population is facilitated, the opportunity to provide an acceptable level of prosperity increases, and the birth rate rises. But up to certain limits. The further development of an industrial society and its transition to a high-tech information society require a lot of effort and time for the socialization of young people and for them to achieve a sufficient level of education and training. This leads to the transfer of concerns about planned parenthood and childbearing to later ages. In a market society, an increase in living standards occurs against the background of a decrease in birth rates. This pattern is illustrated in Fig. 22.

Rice. 22. Diagram of the evolution of fertility

In the formation of the descending branch of the graph shown in fig. 22, a certain contribution is also made by the socio-demographic phenomenon, known in the specialized literature under the name "paradox feedback". This phenomenon was first described by demographers two centuries ago and consists in the fact that rich families, on average, have fewer children than poor ones. This phenomenon has a social stratification: first and most clearly it manifested itself in historical terms among the representatives of the intelligentsia, then among the workers, and lastly among the agricultural workers.
The fact of changing one fertility model to another (large children to small children) is denoted by the term demographic transition. In Europe, it was clearly marked in the 70s. of the last century, in Russia it was formed a generation later - in the 90s.
Rice. 23 clarifies this situation, showing that the transition from having many children to having few children in the EU countries occurred in the mid-1970s. the last century.

Rice. 23. Dynamics of the total fertility rate in France (upper graph) and Germany (lower graph) in the second half of the 20th century
(Cited in: M. Klupt, 2008, p. 48, fig. 1.1.)

Rice. 24 details the chronology of the demographic transition in the dynamics of reproductive behavior in relation to the situation in Russia. It follows from the figure that in the Russian Federation a noticeable decrease in the number of births per woman of reproductive age occurred a decade later than in Europe, although the trend towards small families among the urban population was already formed in the early 1960s. the last century.

Rice. Fig. 24. Dynamics of the total fertility rate (TFR - the number of births per woman of reproductive age) in Russia for the period from 1961 to 2004. The upper broken line is the rural population; medium - the entire population; the lower one is urban.

Demographic Potential and Fertility Stimulation

By 2014, the net reproduction rate of the population reached 83% of the replacement of the maternal generation by the child. However, the population reproduction regime remains narrowed, despite a very noticeable increase in this indicator since the early 2000s.

How long are the positive trends? Demographic projections predict unfavorable prospects. In this regard, it is important to assess the reserves for increasing the birth rate. Estimates of fertility reserves are based on data on the birth rate of the population that does not practice contraception; they are used to determine biological standards for age-specific fertility rates and a possible minimum of its level. The calculation of the hypothetical minimum natural birth rate index (HMER) in Russia (and in the Vologda Oblast) indicates the presence of significant reserves. As can be seen from Table. 1, GMER for the intercensal period (from 1989 to 2010) decreased from 48.7 to 38.6%. This indicates a reduction in the number of cohorts of women of reproductive age. The ratio of the GMER index and the total fertility rate shows the level of implementation of natural fertility. It slightly increased over the same period - from 31.5 to 32.4%.

In the period under review, the GMER index decreases, indicating a deterioration in the age and marriage structure of the population. Against the background of the spread of the practice of intra-family birth control, the decrease in the need for children, this actualizes the study of reproductive behavior and ways to influence it.

Table 1. Total Fertility Rates, Hypothetical Minimum Natural Fertility, and Degree of GMER Implementation

Russia			Vologda Region*
	GMER	GMER sales, %	total fertility rate	GMER	GMER sales, %
ppm		GMER sales, %	ppm		GMER sales, %

Sources: Antonov A.I., V.A. Borisov. Lectures on demography. - M., 2011. - 592 p.. P. 204], operational data of Rosstat on the natural movement of the population. - Access mode: http://www.gks.ru; author's calculations.

Sources:
* according to Vologdastat;
** according to the population censuses of 2002, 2010 - Access mode:
http://www.perepis2002.ru/mdex.html?id=9 ;
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612.htm .

The monitoring of the reproductive potential of the population in the Vologda Oblast, starting from 2005, makes it possible to fix the preferred number of children, the conditions for the realization of reproductive intentions.

The average preferred number of children shows the average number of children in families, which, under certain conditions, can be achieved. The results of a survey of the inhabitants of the Vologda Oblast, as well as the results of the Russian Survey of Reproductive Plans, indicate that the norm of having few children has become entrenched in society and is actively implemented in everyday life. Realizing that ideas about childbearing do not always coincide with the actual number of births, one should understand their role: up to 50% of the birth rate is determined by the reproductive plans of the family and the individual, which are quite stable throughout life. The preferred number of children shows the conditionally probable limits of the increase in the total fertility rate.

The ideal number is the number of children in the family, which would be the best in general, for the "ideal" family. The peculiarity of his assessment lies in the detachment from personal circumstances, this is a conditional standard that operates in society. At the beginning of the study, its average value was 2.06, and by 2014 it had increased to 2.12. In our opinion, this is the result of an active information policy that has formed an opinion about the existence and the need to solve the "demographic problem".

Projecting on himself, his personal preferences, the respondent says how many children he would like to have under all favorable conditions. The desired number of children is a projection of the need for children. To satisfy it, the population needs, on average, two children. From the point of view of ensuring the reproduction of the population, this is a regime of simple replacement of generations, but its dynamics are unfavorable (the average desired number of children decreased from 2.2 in 2005 to 2.0 in 2014).

The indicator of the expected number of children is closest to the value of the fertility rate. This is the number of children that people really plan to have, given the existing conditions. If living conditions improve, the expected number may be exceeded. For example, after the address of the President of Russia to the Legislative Assembly in 2006, there was an increase in the values of planned parenthood, people felt attention to family problems, optimistic moods and stabilization of the socio-economic situation in the country contributed to optimism.

In the period 2005-2011. the average expected number of children increased from 1.77 to 1.86, in 2014 the indicator decreased to 1.81. This may indicate a "fading" effect of the demographic policy measures introduced in the period 2006-2012.

In rural areas, the size of families is traditionally higher than in urban families. The realization of the potential of rural residents is one of the strategic reserves for increasing the birth rate. However, in 2014, there was a noticeable decrease in childbearing attitudes in rural areas compared to 2011; the average preferred number of children was less than that of urban dwellers (Table 2). This is probably due to the “blurring of boundaries” between the city and the countryside in terms of life values, claims to the image and standard of living.

Table 2. Average desired and expected number of children in the Vologda Oblast

Source

Residents of the region see the main obstacles (as well as contributing conditions) to the increase in the birth rate in the problem of their financial situation and housing disorder. At the same time, despite the limited reliability of their answers, a noticeable increase in the importance of the value factor should be noted: in 2005, only 8% of the region's population believed that the birth rate was limited by career priority, the desire to "live for oneself" against 16% in 2014 ( Table 3). The frequency of choosing such a factor as “the risk of being unemployed” increased by 94%, which emphasizes the urgency of the problem of women's employment, combining work and reproductive activities.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “What, in your opinion, prevents an increase in the birth rate in our country?” (in % of the number of respondents)

Factors	2014 to 2005, %	Rank
Factors	2014 to 2005, %
Poor housing and material conditions for most families
Unstable economic situation
The risk of being unemployed
Career priority, the desire to "live for yourself"
Child care concerns
Birth of a handicapped child

Source: Monitoring of the reproductive potential of the population in the Vologda region.

The conducted research testifies to the spread of small children. An increase in the birth rate due to an increase in the proportion of large families will require the search and use of all possible resources to create the conditions for “overfulfillment” of reproductive plans, which is primarily due to the impact on the idea of the family and parenthood, their successful combination with other areas of life.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of demographic policy

The biological (natural birth rate) potential for increasing the birth rate has not been exhausted, but is limited by demographic behavior. Reproductive behavior refers to a small-child type with a focus on 1-2 children and the prevalence of psychological reproductive motives.

The obstacles to the birth of desired children are mainly in the area of material and domestic problems and "uncertainty in the future." An important role is played by the fear of losing a job, which reveals a whole range of labor market problems, including its new type for the Russian legal sphere - the reproductive one.

The demographic policy of stimulating the birth rate has an effect, but is limited by the desired number of children. In this regard, it is important not only to create conditions for the realization of the desired births, but to activate work on the formation of the reproductive attitudes of the younger generation. This is the task of the official political course of the state with the involvement, first of all, of the educational resource of the education system, means mass media, social services.

A regular search for new effective instruments of demographic policy will reduce the "fading" of the effectiveness of the measures taken. In our opinion, today there is a threat of "skewed" support for the birth of children of the second and higher priority.

Given the growing prevalence of the ideology of voluntary childlessness among young people, it is important to support the birth of first-born children. The study of the lifestyle of modern youth focused on the nuclear family, the effective combination of reproductive and productive labor, careers testify in favor of the Ural demographic school, which advocates the official recognition of reproductive labor as a type of labor activity that requires appropriate competencies and pay.

It seems promising to revise the system of tax preferences for families with children. A more tangible “gain” for the budget will be not only material resource but an instrument of psychological influence. In connection with the reform of the pension system, the planned increase in the retirement age, the introduction of a new system of indexing the amount of pensions depending on the number of children will also be important for the majority of Russians.

Bodrova V.V. Reproductive behavior and reproductive rights of the population of Russia in the transition period // Population. - 1999. - No. 2. - S. 79-90; Paltseva T.V. Formation of the reproductive attitude // Family in Russia. - 2004. No. 4. - S. 26-35.
Andreev E.M., Bondarskaya G.A. Can the expected number of children be used in population projections? // Questions of statistics. - 2000. - No. 11. S. 60.
Nechiporenko O.V. Formation of multiformity in the agrarian sphere of Russian society and the evolution of adaptation strategies of the rural population // Sociology and Society: Global Challenges and Regional Development [Electronic resource]: Proceedings of the IV Ordinary All-Russian Sociological Congress. - M.: ROS, 2012. - 1 CD ROM. - S. 5124-5132; Patsiorkovskiy V.V. Rural-urban Russia. - M.: ISEPN RAN, 2010. - 390.
Arkhangelsky V.N. Opinions about "hindrances" to the birth of children in the family and about the real difficulties in realizing the desired number of children // Demographic Studies. - 2010. - No. 3. [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.demographia.ru/articles_N/index.html?idR=20&idArt=320#_ftnref5 http://base.garant.ru/191961/

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