What is special about the El Niño current? El Niño has been replaced by La Niña: what does it mean?
Can you imagine such a picture in the underground passage of your city?
But in vain. In our life everything is possible, and even more!
Temperatures are rising, the climate is changing, rivers are overflowing their banks, water levels in the world's oceans are rising, and scammers are skimming the cream off people's fears. Global warming And global example then the premiere of the film "". What is the connection with cards, you might think?
And here she is!
Recent sea level data from NASA (using the Jason-2 oceanography satellite) show that large-scale, persistent weakening of winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October produced a strong, eastward-moving warm water wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as an area of more high level sea, compared to normal and warmer sea surface temperatures.
The image was created using data collected by the US/European satellite during a 10-day period spanning late October and early November. The picture shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that is approximately 10 to 18 centimeters above normal. These areas contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower water levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters below normal. Along the equator, red and white colors represent areas where sea temperatures surfaces one to two degrees Celsius above normal.
These are many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years).
Signs of El Niño are as follows:
Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
Warm water spreads from the western part Pacific Ocean to the east. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.
As El Niño's warm waters fuel storms, it creates increased rainfall in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Wedell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.
IN North America Winters are generally warmer than normal in the Midwest and Canada, while central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are getting wetter. The Pacific Northwest states, in other words, dry out during El Niño.
Based on this data, I can write new script for a smashing blockbuster. As usual: apocalypse, catastrophe, panic... El Niño 2029 or El Niño 2033. Nowadays it’s fashionable to invent everything with numbers. Or, perhaps simply.
El Nin o-o
The mechanisms that may cause El Niño events are still being researched. It is difficult to find patterns that can reveal causes or allow predictions to be made.
Bjerknes in 1969 suggested that abnormal warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean may be attenuated by east-west temperature differences, causing weakening in the Volcker circulation and trade winds that move warm water westward. The result is an increase in warm water to the east.
Virtki in 1975 suggested that the trade winds could create a westerly bulge of warm waters, and any weakening of the winds could allow warm waters to move east. However, no bulges were noticed on the eve of the events of 1982-83. .
Rechargeable Oscillator: Some mechanisms have been proposed that when warm areas are created in the equatorial region, they are dissipated to higher latitudes through El Niño events. The cooled areas are then recharged with heat for several years before the next event occurs.
Western Pacific Oscillator: In the western Pacific Ocean, several weather conditions could cause easterly wind anomalies. For example, a cyclone in the north and an anticyclone in the south result in an easterly wind between them. Such patterns can interact with the westerly flow across the Pacific Ocean and create a tendency for the flow to continue eastward. A weakening of the westerly current at this time may be the final trigger.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean can lead to El Niño-like conditions with a few random variations in behavior. External weather patterns or volcanic activity can be such factors.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a critical source of variability that may contribute to the sharper evolution leading to El Niño conditions through fluctuations in low-level winds and precipitation over the western and central regions. Pacific Ocean. The eastward propagation of oceanic Kelvin waves may be caused by MJO activity.
2. Southern Oscillation and El Niño
The Southern Oscillation and El Niño (Spanish El Niño - Baby, Boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. Being characteristic feature Pacific Ocean, El Niño and La Niña are temperature fluctuations in surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The names of these phenomena, borrowed from Spanish local residents and first introduced into scientific use in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Volcker, mean “baby” and “little one,” respectively. Their influence on the climate of the southern hemisphere is difficult to overestimate. The Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric component of the phenomenon) reflects monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the difference in air pressure between the island of Tahiti and the city of Darwin in Australia.
The circulation named after Volcker is a significant aspect of the Pacific phenomenon ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). ENSO is many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. ENSO is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years). ENSO has signatures in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
In the Pacific, during significant warm events, El Niño warms up and expands across much of the Pacific tropics and becomes directly correlated with SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) intensity. While ENSO events are primarily between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ENSO events in Atlantic Ocean are 12-18 months behind the first ones. Most of the countries that experience ENSO events are developing ones, with economies that are heavily dependent on the agricultural and fishing sectors. New capabilities to predict the onset of ENSO events in three oceans could have global socioeconomic implications. Since ENSO is a global and natural part of the Earth's climate, it is important to know whether changes in intensity and frequency could be a result of global warming. Low frequency changes have already been detected. Interdecadal ENSO modulations may also exist (Fig. 1)
Fig.1. El Niño and La Niña
Common Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds collect a warm water pool to the west. Cold waters rise to the surface along the South American coast. (NOAA/PMEL/TAO)
El Niño and La Niña are officially defined as long-lasting marine surface temperature anomalies greater than 0.5 °C crossing the central tropical Pacific Ocean. When a condition of +0.5 °C (-0.5 °C) is observed for a period of up to five months, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) condition. If the anomaly persists for five months or longer, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) episode. The latter occurs at irregular intervals of 2-7 years and usually lasts one or two years.
The first signs of El Niño are as follows:
1. Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. A drop in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.
3. Trade winds in the South Pacific are weakening or heading east.
4. Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
5. Warm water spreads from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the eastern. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.
The warm El Niño current, consisting of plankton-poor tropical water and warmed by its easterly flow in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, plankton-rich waters of the Humboldt Current, also known as the Peruvian Current, which contains large populations commercial fish. Most years, the warming lasts only a few weeks or months, after which weather patterns return to normal and fish catches increase. However, when El Niño conditions last for several months, more extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic impact on local fisheries for the external market can be severe.
The Volcker circulation is visible on the surface as easterly trade winds, which move water and air heated by the sun westward. It also creates oceanic upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, bringing cold plankton-rich waters to the surface, increasing fish populations. The western equatorial Pacific Ocean is characterized by warm, humid weather and low atmospheric pressure. The accumulated moisture falls in the form of typhoons and storms. As a result, in this place the ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part.
In the Pacific Ocean, La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial region compared to El Niño, which in turn is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the same region. Atlantic tropical cyclone activity generally increases during La Niña. A La Niña condition often occurs after an El Niño, especially when the latter is very strong.
Traces of destruction caused by El Niño :
1.1525: First historical mention of El Niño in Peru.
2.1789-1793: El Niño killed 600,000 people in India and caused severe famine in South Africa.
3.1982-1983: This phenomenon caused the death of 2,000 people and caused damage, especially in tropical regions, amounting to US$13 billion.
4.1990-1995: Three incidents occurred one after another, making up one of the longest recorded El Niño events.
5.1997-1998: Despite early success in regional flood and drought forecasting, El Niño caused approximately 2,100 deaths and $33 billion in damages worldwide.
Typically, trade winds drive a layer of warm water from the American coast towards Asia. Around Indonesia, the current stops. The ocean surface level there at this time exceeds the mark off the Peruvian coast by 60 centimeters. Clouds form over the warming ocean and typically fall as monsoon rains over southern Asia. But when El Niño “shows its character”, the trade winds weaken or do not blow at all. The heated water spreads to the sides and goes back to the American coast. Researchers now understand this phenomenon and call it the Southern Oscillation. They, as if in a bathtub, rock the heated ocean waters from west to east and back. Only in the ocean all this happens much more slowly than in a bath. Behind the swaying water, as if accompanying it, they reach out and rain clouds, which usually rained in September-October over Indonesia and Australia.
In early spring In 1997, space satellites armed with infrared cameras showed that a patch of heated water had formed near the equator, in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. The 10-12 centimeter thick layer had a temperature of up to 30 degrees Celsius - 5 degrees higher than usual. This alerted meteorologists. The center of a tropical typhoon system could form here. The heated water could weaken the trade winds or turn them into reverse side and thereby intensify the destructive effects of El Niño, as was the case in 1982.
When then, in June, the difference in atmospheric pressure over the Australian port of Darwin and over the island of Tahiti changed significantly (southern oscillation), and Peruvian fishermen in their waters, to everyone’s surprise, caught a pair of hammerhead sharks (fish that live in very warm waters) , weather service and facilities mass media sounded the alarm.
The reasons for this were: a change in atmospheric pressure over the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean - a sign that the current there had reversed. That's why heat-loving sharks ended up off the coast of Peru.
Another month and a half passed, and new facts emerged confirming the worst fears: corals, creatures that are very sensitive to water temperature, began to die off the coast of Mexico and Costa Rica. In Chile, hungry cormorants have begun raiding fish markets. In Peru, due to a lack of raw materials, several factories that processed fish into flour had to be closed. Heavy rains hit Chile, followed by a rat infestation. Viruses brought by rats caused outbreaks of disease. The oldest buildings in South America - pyramids made of unfired brick - fell victim to the rains. Many of them are about 1500 years old. And now they may be washed away by water pouring from the sky. Scientists sounded the alarm. Roofs made of canvas and plastic are being urgently built over the monuments.
Some archaeologists are already saying that El Niño in the distant past could have been one of the reasons for the death of highly developed cultures of the peoples of South America. Archaeologist Ricardo Morales suggested that in the years 550 - 600 A.D. the famous Pyramid of the Moon was washed away by rains caused, as he believes, by a super-strong El Niño. The village, located not far from the pyramid, according to the scientist, was washed away by streams of water.
In Peru, according to archaeologist M. Moseli, 1100 years ago, a powerful El Niño, or rather, the natural disasters generated by it, destroyed the system of irrigation canals and thereby destroyed the highly developed culture of a large state.
3. Study of the El Niño phenomenon
The first European to swim across largest ocean planet, was Magellan. He called him "Quiet". As it soon became clear, Magellan was mistaken. It is in this ocean that most typhoons are born, and it produces three-quarters of the planet's clouds. Now we have also learned that the El Niño current emerging in the Pacific Ocean sometimes causes many different troubles and disasters on the planet.
The current stretches from the coast of Peru to the archipelago surrounding the Southeast of the Asian continent. In terms of El Niño, it is an elongated tongue of highly heated water. It is equal in area to the United States. Heated water evaporates more intensely and “pumps” the atmosphere with energy faster. El Niño supplies it with 450 million megawatts, which is equivalent to the power of 300,000 large nuclear power plants. It is clear that this energy, according to the law of conservation of energy, does not disappear. And now in Indonesia, disaster broke out in full force. First, there was a raging drought on the island of Sumatra, then the dried-out forests began to burn. In the impenetrable smoke that enveloped the entire island, the plane crashed upon landing, and a tanker and a cargo ship collided at sea. The smoke reached Singapore and Malaysia... El Niño is also to blame for all this.
And to the American Pacific coast the current brought prolonged rain and hurricanes with hail. A state of emergency had to be declared in Costa Rica, Bolivia and Peru. South Africa lives under the threat of drought, in Australia it has already devastated the fields and meadows of farmers. In many places on earth, crops were completely destroyed.
Lack of water has reached the latitudes of Central America. Because of it, Lake Gatuk, part of the Panama Canal route, became shallow. It is filled with the runoff of rivers flowing towards the Atlantic. Due to the large landmass, the rivers have become scarce, the lake has become shallow, and now only ships with a shallow draft can pass through the Panama Canal.
The phenomenon, the origin of which is still unknown, repeats itself every six or seven years.
Throughout the winter of 1997-1998, images of flooded villages, reports of heavy rainfall in various parts of the planet and abnormal temperatures in the United States and South America, have become a common sight on television screens and the pages of all newspapers. These events were associated with a phenomenon called El Niño.
However, the appearance of El Niño in 1997 and 1998 did not come as a surprise to meteorologists and people interested in this phenomenon. Since 1923, it has been the subject of close study. His name, meaning "little boy", came from South American fishermen, as his appearance coincided with the advent of Christmas - the time of the birth of little Jesus. During El Niño, unusual heat equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean, which under normal conditions does not exceed 0.5 C. Temperature changes are associated with changes in pressure, as a result of which the winds blowing here also change direction. Due to rising water temperatures, squally winds often occur, especially in the Pacific Ocean on both its western and eastern coasts.
Unlike other parts of the world, South America is most affected by El Niño. Summer here has become hot and humid, with heavy rainfall on the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. From December 1997 to February 1998, there were serious floods.
Three months later, similar phenomena could be observed in northern Argentina and southern Brazil. As for Brazil, Rio de Janeiro still cannot recover from the terrible consequences of the flood.
Chile and the Bolivian Altiplano, on the other hand, experienced an incredibly harsh winter with snow storms and temperatures below normal. Northern Amazonia, Colombia and Central America experienced an unusually dry summer.
In the opposite part of the Pacific Ocean, similar phenomena also occurred, but on a slightly smaller scale. Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia received less rainfall than in previous decades.
The United States and Canada have experienced rising and falling temperatures. Observed in the Midwest and Canada warm winters, while Southern California, Northwestern Mexico and several American states suffered from constant rain.
Africa also had to deal with climate changes caused by El Niño. December through February was unusually wet for Equatorial Africa and Southern Sahara. Unlike these areas African continent, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana were surprised by hot, humid weather. Incessant rains caused floods on the American continent, and landslides became more frequent, causing serious material damage and 800 casualties.
In South America, climate change has caused the spread of cholera, dengue, malaria, encephalitis and leptospirosis, which in developing countries, combined with poor medical conditions, often causes high mortality. Just like it happened in 1991, when during another El Niño visit there was an outbreak of cholera that claimed 12,000 lives.
The fishing industry is experiencing the most negative consequences of weather changes. With the advent of El Niño, cold currents rich in food for fish and birds are displaced. The decline in bird populations in the coastal zone poses certain dangers, as their excrement is used in the production of fertilizers. El Niño has a corresponding negative impact on the situation of fish processing enterprises. Surprisingly, while the fishing industry is in decline, life in the suburbs is improving significantly. Warm climate has a positive effect on the harvest, and local farmers can rest a little.
The El Niño phenomenon is nothing more than the southern oscillation, which is a significant fluctuation in water and air temperature in the South Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America. Such fluctuations (oscillations) occur very irregularly - once every three, four, or even five years. The maximum development of the southern oscillations usually occurs in December, on Christmas Eve, and is accompanied by a strong increase in fish catch. That is why South Americans, especially Peruvians, are looking forward to the next oscillation with great impatience.
The El Niño phenomenon, as already mentioned, is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. However, in recent years, there has been an opinion that they have already learned how to predict El Niño. The last cases of El Niño in 1986-1991 were predicted in advance and with a sufficient degree of accuracy by S. Zebiak. Together with M. Capel, S. Zebiak developed a forecast according to which the arrival of El Niño in 1993 was not expected.
Some scientists admit that this course of events has dealt a serious blow to mathematical modeling.
US President Clinton convened a council in October 1997 that examined all aspects of the unfolding environmental disaster. A task was formulated: all industrial enterprises in the country that discharge greenhouse gases into the atmosphere should reduce their emissions by the year 2000 to the 1990 level.
Meteorologists' predictions have been confirmed: catastrophic events associated with the El Niño current are hitting the earth one after another. Of course, it is very sad that all this is happening now. But still, it should be noted that for the first time humanity is encountering a global natural disaster, knowing its causes and the course of further development.
The El Niño phenomenon is already quite well studied. Science has solved the mystery that plagued Peruvian fishermen. They did not understand why sometimes during the Christmas period the ocean becomes warmer and the shoals of sardines off the coast of Peru disappear. Because the arrival of warm water coincided with Christmas, the current was called El Niño, which means "baby boy" in Spanish.
Fishermen, of course, are interested in the immediate reason for the departure of the sardines. The fact is that sardines (and not only them) feed on phytoplankton, component which are microscopic algae. And algae need sunlight and nutrients - primarily nitrogen and phosphorus. They are found in ocean water, and their supply is top layer constantly replenished by vertical currents coming from the bottom to the surface. But when the El Niño current turns back towards South America, its warm waters “block” the exit of deep waters. Biogenic elements do not rise to the surface, and algae reproduction stops. The fish leave these places - they do not have enough food.
Even in those years when El Niño does not bring great trouble, it is worth keeping an eye on it, since it contains and encodes the future development of the atmosphere: what to expect from the next winter, whether spring will be early or late, whether there is a threat of summer drought.
Factors such as wind, clouds, rain, sunny skies help predict the weather only for the near future. Several days will pass, and new winds and new clouds will determine the weather. Only the oceans have a long-term influence on the atmosphere. And they are the ones who determine the weather on Earth.
The joint work of climatologists, meteorologists, and oceanologists continued for more than 15 years different countries world trying to find a basis for long-term weather forecasts. They installed buoys with instruments in the oceans, sank them to depth, and monitored the behavior of sea waters from satellites. The entire mass of extracted digital material was loaded into computers... The warning received from scientists that catastrophic weather changes were possible at the end of 1997 shows that all this complex and expensive research was not carried out in vain. German meteorologist M. Latif states: “We understand the essence of the phenomenon.”
Droughts, storms, floods, and colds have significantly influenced the fate of entire nations in all centuries. Stories about these very real events of distant times gradually turned into legends and myths. And now many of them are receiving a scientific explanation.
El Niño, a warm seasonal flow of surface water of low salinity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Distributed in the summer of the Southern Hemisphere along the coast of Ecuador from the equator to 5-7° south. w. In some years, E. - N. intensifies and, penetrating far to the south (up to 15° S), pushes cold waters away from the coast. A thin layer of warm waters from the E. - N. stops the supply of oxygen to the subsurface layers, which has a detrimental effect on the plankton and fish of the richest Peruvian productive region; heavy rainfall causes catastrophic flooding on the normally dry coast.
The penetration of warm waters into the south is associated with the weakening of the action of trade winds and the cessation of the rise of cold subsurface waters to the surface in the coastal part of the ocean. Usually this catastrophic phenomenon is observed in late December - early January. It manifested itself especially sharply in 1891, 1925, 1941, 1953, 1957-58 and 1972-73. During the years of development of E. - N. fish (anchovy) either die or leave coastal waters, which causes a high mortality rate of those who feed on fish seabirds and reduces the amount of guano used as s. - X. fertilizers
An analysis of historical oceanographic, meteorological, heliogeophysical and geodynamic data was performed. Main results obtained:
Large-scale phenomena in the ocean and atmosphere of the Earth are closely related to each other, being direct factors of weather and climate fluctuations. In turn, these factors are a reflection of external (cosmic) influences: solar activity, interplanetary magnetic field and dissymmetry of the solar system, the latter being the guiding factor, affecting the influx of light radiation from the Sun to the Earth, changes in the speed of the Earth’s orbital and axial rotation, and the precession of the Earth’s axis.
The speed of rotation of the Earth is associated with the magnitude of the angular momentum of the motion of the atmosphere in relation to the earth's surface (circulation index according to E.I. Blinova). It is shown that with an increase in the circulation index, the centers of atmospheric action over the oceans (the Azores and Honolulu anticyclones) shift southward.
As a result of the displacement of anticyclones to the south, the atmospheric pressure gradient between them and the equatorial zone increases (an increase in the Southern Oscillation index in the Pacific Ocean and the North-South Oscillation in the sub tropical zone Atlantic). In these zones of increased atmospheric pressure gradients, trade winds intensify, drawing the surface waters of the oceans in the western and northwestern directions and, as a consequence, the appearance of low temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator in its central and eastern parts.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared an El Niño (Spanish for "boy") in the Pacific Ocean. As it is reported, climate phenomenon characterized by an increase in the temperature of the surface layers of water by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius.
Currently, temperatures in this region of the Pacific Ocean are almost a degree above average for this time period. NOAA promises that El Niño will last until the spring of 2010. Officially last time El Niño appeared in 2006.
Among the possible climate effects caused by El Niño are: harsh winters in California, accompanied by snow storms, and drought in Indonesia. In addition, "Boy" can lead to floods in South and Central America. However, not all climate effects of El Niño are negative. Thus, among the advantages of this phenomenon are weaker hurricane seasons (the first hurricane of the new season recently formed).
Most recently, the American Space Agency provided Internet users with the opportunity to observe changes in the temperature of the oceans in real time using the Sea Level Viewer website. When visiting of this resource, made using Flash technology, an interactive globe appears on which data on water temperature is displayed. In particular, the presence of El Niño is separately displayed there.
As previously reported, the earth has warmed by 0.4 degrees Celsius over the past 30 years, according to data obtained from NASA satellites and the American weather agency NOAA.
A map of temperature changes since December 1, 1978, when satellites began collecting data, shows that the level of warming has not been the same across the planet. Half globe warmed by at least 0.3 degrees Celsius during this period, with a quarter of the Earth becoming 0.6 degrees warmer.
The strongest warming occurred in the North Atlantic and Arctic. The temperature rose the highest in one of the regions of Greenland - by more than 2.5 degrees.
One of the most prominent features of the 30-year temperature curve is the warming in 1997-1998 associated with El Niño, an anomalous warming of surface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean that affects the climate of the entire Western Hemisphere. The opposite phenomenon, La Niña, is associated, on the contrary, with anomalous cooling of water.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, the causes of El Niño still remain unknown, as are the consequences caused by global climate change. The repetition of this phenomenon is observed every six or seven years. Its duration depends on a number of factors, which meteorologists are currently studying.
The events of 1997-1998 caused La Niña. This a natural phenomenon occurs when climate changes caused by El Niño become particularly noticeable. La Niña is the exact opposite of El Niño. Where one causes temperatures to rise, the other causes them to fall. While El Niño brings rain, La Niña brings drought.
On the coast of South America, La Nina is greeted with joy: with a decrease in the temperature of the current, more fish come and, consequently, catches increase. But in agriculture, the opposite is true: La Niña is not popular because the drop in temperature it causes has an adverse effect on crops.
IN Lately, especially since 1982-1983, when the impact of El Niño was strongest, and also in 1990-1994 - during its longest period of influence, countries dependent on the vagaries of nature relied entirely on weather forecasting.
Without a doubt, only an accurate forecast helps plan the harvest and the workload of the fishing fleet. And governments of different countries can develop plans for timely delivery financial assistance various sectors of the economy.
So, an unusually complex and branched system of direct and feedback connections allows us to talk about the Earth as a single living organism in which everything is very finely balanced.
Bibliography
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Similar works to - El Niño phenomenon. Southern Oscillation and its consequences
Author: S. Gerasimov
On April 18, 1998, the newspaper “World of News” published an article by N. Varfolomeeva “Moscow snowfall and the mystery of the El Niño phenomenon” which stated: “...We have not yet learned to be scared at the word El Niño... It is El Niño that is a threat to life on the planet ... The El Niño phenomenon has been practically unstudied, its nature is unclear, it cannot be predicted, which means it is, in the full sense of the word, a time bomb... If efforts are not immediately made to clarify the nature of this strange phenomenon, humanity cannot be sure of the future " Agree that all this looks quite ominous, it’s just scary. Unfortunately, everything that is described in the newspaper is not fiction, not a cheap sensation to increase the circulation of the publication. El Niño – the real unpredictable one natural phenomenon– a warm current so affectionately named.
"El Niño" means "baby" or "little boy" in Spanish. This tender name originated in Peru, where local fishermen have long been faced with an incomprehensible mystery of nature: in other years, the water in the ocean suddenly heats up and moves away from the shores. And this happens just before Christmas. That's why the Peruvians connected their miracle with the Christian mystery of Christmas: in Spanish, El Niño is the name for the Holy Child Christ. True, before it did not bring such troubles as it does now. Why does a phenomenon sometimes demonstrate its full strength, while in other cases it shows almost no effect? And what caused the Peruvian miracle, the consequences of which are very serious and sad?
For 20 years now, an entire scientific army has been exploring the space between Indonesia and South America. 13 meteorological vessels, replacing each other, are constantly in these waters. Many buoys are equipped with instruments to measure water temperature from the surface to a depth of 400 meters. Seven planes and five satellites are patrolling the skies over the ocean to get an overall picture of the state of the atmosphere, including understanding the mysterious natural phenomenon El Niño. This occasionally occurring warm current off the coast of Peru and Ecuador is associated with the occurrence of unfavorable weather disasters around the world. It is difficult to follow it - this is not the Gulf Stream, stubbornly moving along a set route for thousands of years. And El Niño occurs, like a jack-in-the-box, every three to seven years. From the outside it looks like this: from time to time in the Pacific Ocean - from the coast of Peru all the way to the islands of Oceania - a very warm giant current appears, with a total area equal to the area of the United States - about 100 million km2. It extends with a long, tapering sleeve. Over this vast space, as a result of increased evaporation, colossal energy is pumped into the atmosphere. The El Niño effect releases energy with a capacity of 450 million megawatts, which is equal to the total capacity of 300 thousand large nuclear power plants. It's like one more thing - an extra one - the Sun rises from the Pacific Ocean, heating our planet! And then here, as if in a giant cauldron, between America and Asia, the signature climatic dishes of the year are cooked.
Naturally, the first to celebrate its “birth” are Peruvian fishermen. They are concerned about the disappearance of schools of sardines off the coast. The immediate reason for the departure of the fish lies, as it turns out, in the disappearance of food. Sardines, and not only them, feed on phytoplankton, a component of which is microscopic algae. And algae need sunlight and nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus. They are present in ocean water, and their supply in the upper layer is constantly replenished by vertical currents going from the bottom to the surface. But when the El Niño current turns back towards South America, its warm waters “lock” the exit of deep waters. Biogenic elements do not rise to the surface, and algae reproduction stops. The fish leave these places - they do not have enough food. But sharks appear. They also react to “problems” in the ocean: bloodthirsty robbers are attracted by the water temperature - it rises by 5-9 ° C. It is precisely this sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean (in the tropical and central parts) that is the El phenomenon. Niño. What's happening to the ocean?
In normal years, warm surface ocean waters are transported and retained by easterly winds - the trade winds - in the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. It should be noted that the depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters. The formation of such a huge heat reservoir is the main necessary condition for the birth of El Niño. At the same time, as a result of the surge of water, the sea level off the coast of Indonesia is two feet higher than off the coast of South America. At the same time, the water surface temperature in the west in the tropical zone averages +29-30° C, and in the east +22-24° C. A slight cooling of the surface in the east is the result of the rise of deep cold waters to the ocean surface due to water suction trade winds. At the same time, the largest region of heat and stationary unstable equilibrium in the ocean-atmosphere system is formed above the TTB in the atmosphere (when all forces are balanced and the TTB is motionless).
For unknown reasons, once every three to seven years the trade winds suddenly weaken, the balance is upset and the warm waters of the western basin rush east, creating one of the strongest warm currents in the World Ocean. Over a vast area in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in the tropical and central equatorial parts, there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean. This is the onset of El Niño. Its beginning is marked by a long onslaught of squally westerly winds. They replace the usual weak trade winds over warm western part Pacific Ocean and block the rise of cold deep waters to the surface, that is, the normal circulation of water in the World Ocean is disrupted. Unfortunately, such a scientific, dry explanation of the causes is nothing compared to the consequences.
But then a giant “baby” was born. His every “breath”, every “wave of his little hand” causes processes that are global in nature. El Niño is usually accompanied by environmental disasters: droughts, fires, heavy rains, causing flooding of vast areas of densely populated areas, which leads to the death of people and the destruction of livestock and crops in different regions of the Earth. El Niño also has a significant impact on the state of the global economy. According to American experts, in 1982-1983 the economic damage from his “pranks” in the USA amounted to 13 billion dollars and from one and a half to two thousand people died, and according to the estimates of the world’s leading insurance company Munich Re, the damage in 1997-1998 is estimated at already 34 billion dollars and 24 thousand human lives.
Drought and rain, hurricanes, tornadoes and snowfalls are the main satellites of El Niño. All this, as if on command, falls to the Earth in unison. During his “coming” in 1997-1998, fires turned the tropical forests of Indonesia into ashes, and then raged across the vast expanses of Australia. They reached the outskirts of Melbourne. The ashes flew to New Zealand - 2000 kilometers away. Tornadoes swept through places where they had never been. Sunny California was attacked by “Nora” - a tornado (as a tornado is called in the USA) of unprecedented size - 142 kilometers in diameter. He rushed over Los Angeles, almost tearing the roofs off the Hollywood film studios. Two weeks later, another tornado, Pauline, struck Mexico. The famous resort of Acapulco was attacked by ten-meter ocean waves - buildings were destroyed, the streets were littered with debris, garbage and beach furniture. The floods did not spare South America either. Hundreds of thousands of Peruvian peasants fled from the onset of water that fell from the sky, their fields were lost, flooded with mud. Where streams used to gurgle, turbulent streams rushed through. The Chilean Atacama Desert, which has always been so unusually dry that NASA tested its Mars rover there, was hit by torrential rains. Catastrophic floods were also observed in Africa.
In other parts of the planet, climate turmoil has also brought misfortune. In New Guinea, one of the largest islands on the planet, mainly in its eastern part, the land is cracked by heat and drought. Tropical greenery dried up, wells were left without water, crops died. Half a thousand people died of hunger. There was a threat of a cholera epidemic.
Usually a “little boy” frolics for about 18 months, so the planet has time to change seasons several times. It makes itself felt not only in summer, but also in winter. And if at the turn of 1982-1983 in the village of Paradise (USA) 28 m 57 cm of snow fell in a year, then in winter season 1998/99, thanks to the El Niño phenomenon, drifts of 29 meters 13 cm grew in a few days at the ski base on Mount Baker.
And if you think that these cataclysms do not affect the vast expanses of Europe, Siberia or Far East, then you are deeply mistaken. Everything that happens in the Pacific Ocean reverberates throughout the planet. This is a monstrous snowfall in Moscow, and 11 floods of the Neva - a record for three hundred years of the existence of St. Petersburg, and +20 ° C in October in Western Siberia. It was then that scientists began to speak with alarm about the retreat of the border permafrost on North.
And if earlier meteorologists and other specialists did not know what caused such a “collapse” in the weather, now the cause of all disasters is considered to be the return movement of the El Niño current in the Pacific Ocean. They study it up and down, but cannot squeeze it into any framework. Scientists just shrug their shoulders – this is an anomalous climate phenomenon.
And what’s most interesting is that they paid attention to this phenomenon only in the last 100 years. But, as it turns out, the mysterious El Niño has existed for many millions of years. Thus, archaeologist M. Moseli claims that 1100 years ago a powerful current, or rather, the rivers generated by it natural disasters, destroyed the system of irrigation canals and thereby destroyed the highly developed culture of a large state in Peru. Humanity simply had not previously associated these natural disasters with it. Scientists began to carefully analyze everything connected with the “baby”, and even studied his “pedigree”.
The Huon Peninsula in the area of the island of New Guinea was chosen to reveal the secrets of El Niño. It consists of a series of terraces coral reef. Part of this island is constantly rising due to tectonic movement, and thus bringing to the surface samples of coral reef that are approximately 130,000 years old. Analysis of isotopic and chemical data from these ancient corals helped scientists identify 14 climate “windows” of 20-100 years each. Cold (40,000 years ago) and warm periods (125,000 years ago) were analyzed in order to assess the characteristics of the flow in different climatic regimes. The coral samples obtained indicate that El Nino used to be not as intense as it has been in the last hundred years. Here are the years in which its anomalous activity was recorded: 1864,1871,1877-1878,1884,1891,1899,1911-1912, 1925-1926, 1939-1941, 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972, 1976, 1982 -1983, 1986-1987, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, 2002-2003. As you can see, the El Niño “phenomenon” is happening more often, lasting longer and causing more and more trouble. The periods from 1982 to 1983 and from 1997 to 1998 are considered the most intense.
The discovery of the El Niño phenomenon is considered the event of the century. After extensive research, scientists have discovered that the warm western basin typically enters an opposite phase, called La Niña, a year after an El Niño, when the eastern Pacific Ocean cools 5 degrees Celsius below average. Then recovery processes begin to take effect, bringing cold fronts to the western North American coast, accompanied by hurricanes, tornadoes and thunderstorms. That is, the destructive forces continue their work. It was noted that 13 El Niño periods accounted for 18 La Niña phases. Scientists were only able to verify that the distribution of TTB anomalies in the study area does not correspond to normal and therefore the empirical probability of the occurrence of La Niña is 1.7 times greater than the probability of the occurrence of El Niño.
The causes and increasing intensity of reverse currents still remain a mystery to researchers. Climatologists often benefit from historical materials in their research. Australian scientist William de la Mare, having studied old reports from whalers from 1931 to 1986 (when whaling was banned), determined that the hunt, as a rule, ended at the edge of the forming ice. Figures show that the summer ice limit from the mid-fifties to the early seventies shifted in latitude by 3°, that is, approximately 1000 kilometers to the south (we are talking about the Southern Hemisphere). This result coincides with the opinion of scientists who recognize the warming of the globe as a result of human activity. German scientist M. Latif from the Institute of Meteorology in Hamburg suggests that the disturbing influence of El Niño is increasing due to the increasing greenhouse effect on Earth. Unpleasant news about rapid warming is coming from the shores of Alaska: the glacier has become hundreds of meters thinner, salmon have changed their spawning time, beetles that have multiplied due to the heat are devouring the forest. Both polar caps of the planet are causing concern among scientists. However, representatives of science did not agree on the answer to the global question: does the “greenhouse effect” in the Earth’s atmosphere affect the intensity of El Niño?
But experts have learned to predict the arrival of the “baby.” And perhaps that is the only reason why the damage of the last two cycles did not have such tragic consequences. Thus, a group of Russian scientists from the Obninsk Institute of Experimental Meteorology, led by V. Pudov, proposed a new approach to predicting El Niño. They decided to develop the already known idea that the emergence of the current is associated with the development of tropical cyclones in the Philippine Sea region. Both typhoons and El Niño are consequences of the accumulation of excess heat in the surface layer of the ocean. The difference between these phenomena is in scale: typhoons release excess heat many times a year, and El Niño - once every few years. It was also noticed that before El Niño forms, the ratio of atmospheric pressure always changes in two points: in Tahiti and in Darwin, Australia. It was precisely this fluctuation in the pressure ratio that turned out to be stable sign, by which meteorologists can now learn in advance about the approach of the “menacing baby.”
edited news VENDETTA - 20-10-2010, 13:02
EL NINO CURRENT
EL NINO CURRENT, a warm surface current that sometimes (after about 7-11 years) arises in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and heads towards the South American coast. It is believed that the occurrence of the current is associated with irregular fluctuations in weather conditions on the globe. The name is given to the current from the Spanish word for the Christ child, as it most often occurs around Christmas. The flow of warm water is preventing plankton-rich cold water from rising to the surface from the Antarctic off the coast of Peru and Chile. As a result, fish are not sent to these areas to feed, and local fishermen are left without a catch. El Niño can also have more far-reaching, sometimes catastrophic, consequences. Its occurrence is associated with short-term fluctuations in climatic conditions Worldwide; possible drought in Australia and other places, floods and severe winters in North America, stormy tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean. Some scientists have expressed concerns that global warming could cause El Niño to occur more frequently.
The combined influence of land, sea and air on weather set a certain rhythm of climate change on a global scale. For example, in the Pacific Ocean (A), winds typically blow from east to west (1) along the equator, -pulling- solar-heated surface layers of water into the basin north of Australia and thereby lowering the thermocline - the boundary between warm surface layers and cooler deeper layers water (2). Over these warm waters, tall cumulus clouds form and produce rain throughout the summer wet season (3). Cooler waters rich in food resources come to the surface off the coast of South America (4), large schools of fish (anchovy) flock to them, and this, in turn, is based on a developed fishing system. The weather over these cold water areas is dry. Every 3-5 years, changes occur in the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. The climate pattern is reversed (B) - this phenomenon is called "El Niño". Trade winds either weaken or reverse their direction (5), and warm surface waters that “accumulated” in the western Pacific Ocean flow back, and the water temperature off the coast of South America rises by 2-3°C (6) . As a result, the thermocline (temperature gradient) decreases (7), and all this greatly affects the climate. In the year when El Niño occurs, droughts and Forest fires, and in Bolivia and Peru there are floods. Warm waters off the coast of South America are pushing deeper into the layers of cold water that support plankton, causing the fishing industry to suffer.
Scientific and technical encyclopedic dictionary.
See what “EL NINO CURRENT” is in other dictionaries:
The Southern Oscillation and El Niño (Spanish: El Niño Baby, Boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. As a characteristic feature of the Pacific Ocean, El Niño and La Niña (Spanish: La Niña Baby, Girl) are temperature fluctuations... ... Wikipedia
Not to be confused with Columbus's La Niña caravel. El Niño (Spanish: El Niño Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation (English: El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation, ENSO) fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in ... ... Wikipedia
- (El Niño), a warm seasonal surface current in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. It develops sporadically in summer when cyclones pass near the equator. * * * EL NINO EL NINO (Spanish: El Nino “Christ Child”), warm... ... encyclopedic Dictionary
Warm surface seasonal current in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America. It appears once every three or seven years after the disappearance of the cold current and lasts for at least a year. Usually originates in December, closer to the Christmas holidays,... ... Geographical encyclopedia
- (El Nino) warm seasonal surface current in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. It develops sporadically in the summer when cyclones pass near the equator... Big Encyclopedic Dictionary
El Niño- Anomalous warming of water in the ocean west coast South America, replacing the cold Humboldt Current, which brings heavy rainfall to the coastal areas of Peru and Chile and occurs from time to time as a result of the influence of southeast... ... Dictionary of Geography
- (El Nino) warm seasonal current of surface waters of low salinity in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. Distributed in the summer of the Southern Hemisphere along the coast of Ecuador from the equator to 5 7 ° S. w. In some years, E.N. intensifies and... ... Great Soviet Encyclopedia
El Niño- (El Niňo)El Nino, a complex climatic phenomenon that occurs irregularly in the equatorial latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. Name E. N. initially referred to the warm ocean current, which annually, usually at the end of December, approaches the shores of the northern... ... Countries of the world. Dictionary
The first time I heard the word “El Niño” was in the United States in 1998. At that time, this natural phenomenon was well known to Americans, but almost unknown in our country. And it’s not surprising, because El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America and greatly influences the weather in the southern states of the United States. El Niño(translated from Spanish El Niño- baby, boy) in the terminology of climatologists - one of the phases of the so-called Southern Oscillation, i.e. fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, during which the area of heated surface water shifts to the east. (For reference: the opposite phase of oscillation - the displacement of surface waters to the west - is called La Niña (La Nina- baby, girl)). The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs periodically in the ocean, greatly affects the climate of the entire planet. One of the largest El Niño events occurred in 1997-1998. It was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection of the Southern Oscillation with global climate change spread. According to experts, the warming phenomenon El Niño is one of the main driving forces natural variability in our climate.
In 2015 The World Meteorological Organization reported that the emerging ahead of schedule and dubbed the "Bruce Lee" El Niño could be one of the strongest since 1950. Its appearance was expected last year, based on data on rising air temperatures, but these models did not materialize, and El Niño did not manifest itself.
In early November, the American agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released a detailed report on the state of the Southern Oscillation and analyzed the possible development of El Niño in 2015-2016. The report is published on the NOAA website. In conclusions of this document it is said that at present there are all conditions for the formation of El Niño, average temperature surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (SST) has increased values and continues to increase. The probability that El Niño will develop throughout the winter of 2015-2016 is 95% . A gradual decline of El Niño is predicted in the spring of 2016. The report published an interesting graph showing the change in SST since 1951. Blue areas correspond to low temperatures (La Niña), orange indicates high temperatures (El Niño). The previous strong increase in SST of 2°C was observed in 1998.
Data obtained in October 2015 indicate that the SST anomaly at the epicenter already reaches 3 °C.
Although the causes of El Niño are not yet fully understood, it is known that it begins with trade winds weakening over several months. A series of waves moves across the Pacific Ocean along the equator and creates a massif warm water near South America, where the ocean usually has low temperatures due to the rise of deep ocean waters to the surface. Weakening trade winds coupled with strong westerly winds could also create a pair of cyclones (south and north of the equator), which is another sign of a future El Niño.
While studying the causes of El Niño, geologists noticed that the phenomenon occurs in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, where a powerful rift system has formed. American researcher D. Walker found a clear connection between increased seismicity on the East Pacific Rise and El Niño. Russian scientist G. Kochemasov saw another curious detail: the relief fields of ocean warming almost one to one repeat the structure of the earth's core.
One of interesting versions belongs to the Russian scientist - Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Syvorotkin. It was first expressed back in 1998. According to the scientist, powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing are located in hot spots of the ocean. Or simply - sources of constant release of gases from the bottom. Their visible signs are exits thermal waters, black and white smokers. In the area of the coast of Peru and Chile, during El Niño years there is a massive release of hydrogen sulfide. The water is boiling and there is a terrible smell. At the same time, an amazing power is pumped into the atmosphere: approximately 450 million megawatts.
The El Niño phenomenon is now being studied and discussed more and more intensively. A group of researchers from the German National Center for Geosciences has concluded that the mysterious disappearance of the Mayan civilization in Central America may have been caused by severe climate changes caused by El Niño. At the turn of the 9th and 10th centuries AD, the two largest civilizations of that time ceased to exist on opposite ends of the earth almost simultaneously. We are talking about the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese Tang Dynasty, which was followed by a period of internecine strife. Both civilizations were located in monsoon regions, the moisture of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, a time came when the rainy season was unable to provide sufficient moisture for the development of agriculture. The drought and subsequent famine led to the decline of these civilizations, researchers believe. Scientists came to these conclusions by studying the nature of sedimentary deposits in China and Mesoamerica dating back to this period. The last emperor of the Tang Dynasty died in 907 AD, and the last known Mayan calendar dates back to 903.
Climatologists and meteorologists say that El Niño2015, which will peak between November 2015 and January 2016, will be one of the strongest. El Niño will lead to large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation, which could cause droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods in dry ones.
A phenomenal phenomenon, which is considered one of the manifestations of the developing El Niño, is now observed in South America. The Atacama Desert, which is located in Chile and is one of the most arid places on Earth, covered with flowers.
This desert is rich in deposits of saltpeter, iodine, table salt and copper, there has been no significant precipitation here for four centuries. The reason is that the Peruvian current cools the lower layers of the atmosphere and creates temperature inversion which prevents precipitation. Rain falls here once every few decades. However, in 2015, the Atacama was hit by unusually heavy rainfall. As a result, dormant bulbs and rhizomes (horizontally growing underground roots) sprouted. The faded plains of the Atacama were covered with yellow, red, violet and white flowers - nolans, beaumaries, rhodophials, fuchsias and hollyhocks. The desert first bloomed in March, after unexpectedly intense rains caused flooding in the Atacama and killed about 40 people. Now the plants have bloomed for the second time in a year, before the start of the southern summer.
What will El Niño 2015 bring? A powerful El Niño is expected to bring welcome rainfall to dry areas of the United States. In other countries, its effect may be the opposite. In the western Pacific Ocean, El Niño creates increased Atmosphere pressure, bringing dry and sunny weather to large areas of Australia, Indonesia, and sometimes even India. The impact of El Niño on Russia has so far been limited. It is believed that under influenced by El Niño in October 1997, temperatures rose above 20 degrees in Western Siberia, and then they started talking about the retreat of permafrost to the north. In August 2000, Emergencies Ministry specialists attributed the series of hurricanes and rainstorms that swept across the country to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.
